MattSzwyd

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About me Bass - cold brew - libertarianism - structure trading
Joined United States matt_szwyd
Markets Allocation
76 % forex 10 % cryptocurrency 14 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 31% | 9 NZDUSD 13% | 4 USDCAD 6% | 2 EURJPY 6% | 2
MattSzwyd MattSzwyd USDJPY, 60, Short ,
USDJPY: Target a point of reversal for USDJPY
241 1 3
USDJPY, 60 Short
Target a point of reversal for USDJPY

Having forcibly rejected the 108 handle late last week, the prevailing trend of subtle HH's and HL's on USDJPY over the past month seems to be losing steam. Embedded within a prevailing downtrend, my analysis contextualizes this move as the final leg of a tripartite corrective structure closely resembling that of an expanding flat with a C with that comprises a ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURCHF, 1D, Short ,
EURCHF: EUR/CHF reexamining January 15th, 2015 nightmare price level
178 0 2
EURCHF, 1D Short
EUR/CHF reexamining January 15th, 2015 nightmare price level

Do you remember where you were on January 15th, 2015? If you were a leveraged EURCHF trader then you certainly do -- it was on that date that the Swiss National Bank removed the 1.20 price peg from the currency pair. Unless you simply like to hit on 18 in blackjack, or you had inside information regarding the SNB's sudden decision to abandon the price control, ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd BTCUSD, 1D, Short ,
BTCUSD: BTCUSD "Death Cross" Imminent
700 0 8
BTCUSD, 1D Short
BTCUSD "Death Cross" Imminent

While it would be optimistic to think that the cryptocurrency market slide in 2018 represents only a regular correction in an otherwise prevailing bull market, I don't think we're merely standing too close to the forest to see the trees here. We've all heard the common tropes making their way around social circles, StockTwits, Subreddits, etc. -- "maybe this looks ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd USDCAD, 1D, Short ,
USDCAD: Potential measured move on USDCAD to the downside.
103 4 1
USDCAD, 1D Short
Potential measured move on USDCAD to the downside.

I am currently short on a USDCAD trade with the expectation that recent price action will descend lower, retesting September lows near the 1.2100 handle. After retracing and rejecting 61.8% of the December 19 - February 2nd downtrend, price appears poised to fall lower on dollar weakness across the board. Stop is placed at 1.27150, right above resistance (point C) ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: Speculative BTC reversal point; return to structure.
142 0 1
BTCUSD, D Long
Speculative BTC reversal point; return to structure.

While the crypto market as a whole continues to bleed out with every passing minute, relief may be in sight. A slew of negative press this week out of South Korea, Brazil, and the Euroean Central Bank, as well as the closure of the now infamous "BitConnect" ponzi scheme (which, despite the many warning signs, effectively lead to a complete loss for many investors) ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: Will the upcoming BTC fork solidify wave 5?
257 1 5
BTCUSD, D Long
Will the upcoming BTC fork solidify wave 5?

We're less than a week away from the upcoming BTC fork, which (if history repeats itself) may provide the requisite sell-off and subsequent rapid buy-back to propel BTC above the 5800 level. (I have placed a warning sign on the chart to indicate when this is set to occur.) In the context of things these new highs are bittersweet --- the completion of wave 5 ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd XAUUSD, D, Long ,
XAUUSD: Gold on the rise; potential pivot points identified.
147 0 4
XAUUSD, D Long
Gold on the rise; potential pivot points identified.

Gold appears poised to ascend by means of a modified Schiff pitchfork, with additional fibonacci trendlines drawn (in purple) between the prongs of the pitchfork skeleton exhibiting significant influence on its upward move. Simultaneously, an ABCD pattern has the potential to form within the pitchfork in a fashion that mutually affirms both pattern parameters. ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURJPY, D, Long ,
EURJPY: EURJPY filling into structure.
87 0 2
EURJPY, D Long
EURJPY filling into structure.

Over the past several years, EURJPY has been confined to a limited, contracting range that is wrought with impulse waves and sideways corrections. The current trend is no exception, forming two flags at points of structure drawn out from extended trend lines, thus suggesting a third bullish move may be in order. OBV and A/D indicators affirm the strength of the ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: S&P to (finally) correct?
258 9 8
SPX, D Short
S&P to (finally) correct?

While I am happy to see the S&P portion of my portfolio reach fresh highs every other day, I have to proceed with caution given the way the market been behaving as of late. Yesterday's failed outside reversal was a major bearish cue, and the technical argument against continued S&P rally is sound. From the weekly, to the daily, to the hourly, we see confluence in ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd USDCAD, D, Long ,
USDCAD: USDCAD ready to reverse its freefall
75 0 4
USDCAD, D Long
USDCAD ready to reverse its freefall

After a bit of a publishing hiatus, I'm excited to publish an idea on a pair with so many signals pointing toward a potential reversal. I have overlaid the UCAD chart with the DXY (dollar index) to show the direct correlation between the two data sets, and how the dollar appears to be winning the figurative "tug of war" between currencies. As the USD begins toying ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURCAD, D, Short ,
EURCAD: EURCAD: The Year(s) Ahead
72 0 5
EURCAD, D Short
EURCAD: The Year(s) Ahead

It's a rather bold move on my part to publish a prediction just before the weekend in which we will find out the first round results of France's election. The consensus among retail traders is binary: either the EUR will rocket upward or plummet downward in response to the election of Macron or Le Pen, respectively. I would like to think that this mode of thinking ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd XAUUSD, 60, Long ,
XAUUSD: XAUUSD: Gold upward -- slowly, but surely.
137 0 7
XAUUSD, 60 Long
XAUUSD: Gold upward -- slowly, but surely.

After a few weeks of struggle to break the 1260 level, XAUUSD has finally popped. Recent U.S. actions against Syria have stirred up an otherwise tepid market with a great deal of money moving into the "safe" assets. While gold has found its footing above previous resistance (at least for today, as we'll see what the weekend brings), every forthcoming detail ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 60, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD Correction
125 1 11
EURUSD, 60 Long
EURUSD Correction

While the USD has staged an impressive recovery in the past week, positive ADP figures coupled with lower than expected jobless claims paint the picture of an economy starting to run a bit too hot. While the Fed unlikely to hike rates any further than they have already projected in this calendar year, more jobs and a fast growing economy means inflation abound. ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 60, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD Correction
61 0 7
EURUSD, 60 Long
EURUSD Correction

While the USD has staged an impressive recovery in the past week, positive ADP figures coupled with lower than expected jobless claims paint the picture of an economy starting to run a bit too hot. While the Fed unlikely to hike rates any further than they have already projected in this calendar year, more jobs and a fast growing economy means inflation abound. ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd DXY, 60, Long ,
DXY: DXY Upside Correction
58 0 5
DXY, 60 Long
DXY Upside Correction

While the dollar has taken a beating recently, it appears to be due for a correction relatively soon. The index has rejected the 102.25 level and slid down to monthly lows. The completion of the 2618 motion illustrated above should have caused a cessation and reversal at the 100.15 level (point D) before a modest reversal, but it appears as though bearish momentum ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd NZDCAD, 240, Long ,
NZDCAD: NZDCAD: Intersecting signals point up.
71 0 4
NZDCAD, 240 Long
NZDCAD: Intersecting signals point up.

Price action on NZDCAD appears to be following a trend supported by multiple trend-channel based support levels that arise when a modified Schiff pitchfork is drawn from 2015 true lows (Sept. 10, 2015) to the 2015 year-end high (Dec. 28, 2015) divided across fresh 2016 lows (Apr. 27, 2016). While the median parallels provide considerable support / resistance, ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 30, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD Contrarian Argument
244 0 10
EURUSD, 30 Long
EURUSD Contrarian Argument

I'm going to go contrarian here, since I think the consensus behind NFP payroll numbers coming up is that yes, they will be high; at this point, they can only disappoint. If you recall last month's estimate of 175k blown out by an actual reading of 227k, the dollar weakened in response. Why? (Hint: It's the same reason the dollar weakened under a hawkish ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURJPY, 240, Short ,
EURJPY: EURJPY Bearish Channel Forming
81 0 4
EURJPY, 240 Short
EURJPY Bearish Channel Forming

As price action retraces the span from Brexit to EURJPY's year-end highs, a nice channel appears to be forming. Since the channel's inception, price action has not invalidated the outer limits of the channel; a cursory look at large-scale swing lows / swing highs reveals a rather strict adherence to the channel's median parallels. I plan to follow this trend, with ...

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