MattSzwyd

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About me Bass - cold brew - libertarianism - structure trading
Joined United States matt_szwyd
Markets Allocation
89 % forex 11 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 47% | 9 NZDUSD 21% | 4 NZDCAD 5% | 1 EURCAD 5% | 1
MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURCAD, D, Short ,
EURCAD: EURCAD: The Year(s) Ahead
50 0 5
EURCAD, D Short
EURCAD: The Year(s) Ahead

It's a rather bold move on my part to publish a prediction just before the weekend in which we will find out the first round results of France's election. The consensus among retail traders is binary: either the EUR will rocket upward or plummet downward in response to the election of Macron or Le Pen, respectively. I would like to think that this mode of thinking ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd XAUUSD, 60, Long ,
XAUUSD: XAUUSD: Gold upward -- slowly, but surely.
131 0 7
XAUUSD, 60 Long
XAUUSD: Gold upward -- slowly, but surely.

After a few weeks of struggle to break the 1260 level, XAUUSD has finally popped. Recent U.S. actions against Syria have stirred up an otherwise tepid market with a great deal of money moving into the "safe" assets. While gold has found its footing above previous resistance (at least for today, as we'll see what the weekend brings), every forthcoming detail ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 60, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD Correction
121 1 11
EURUSD, 60 Long
EURUSD Correction

While the USD has staged an impressive recovery in the past week, positive ADP figures coupled with lower than expected jobless claims paint the picture of an economy starting to run a bit too hot. While the Fed unlikely to hike rates any further than they have already projected in this calendar year, more jobs and a fast growing economy means inflation abound. ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 60, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD Correction
57 0 7
EURUSD, 60 Long
EURUSD Correction

While the USD has staged an impressive recovery in the past week, positive ADP figures coupled with lower than expected jobless claims paint the picture of an economy starting to run a bit too hot. While the Fed unlikely to hike rates any further than they have already projected in this calendar year, more jobs and a fast growing economy means inflation abound. ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd DXY, 60, Long ,
DXY: DXY Upside Correction
54 0 5
DXY, 60 Long
DXY Upside Correction

While the dollar has taken a beating recently, it appears to be due for a correction relatively soon. The index has rejected the 102.25 level and slid down to monthly lows. The completion of the 2618 motion illustrated above should have caused a cessation and reversal at the 100.15 level (point D) before a modest reversal, but it appears as though bearish momentum ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd NZDCAD, 240, Long ,
NZDCAD: NZDCAD: Intersecting signals point up.
65 0 4
NZDCAD, 240 Long
NZDCAD: Intersecting signals point up.

Price action on NZDCAD appears to be following a trend supported by multiple trend-channel based support levels that arise when a modified Schiff pitchfork is drawn from 2015 true lows (Sept. 10, 2015) to the 2015 year-end high (Dec. 28, 2015) divided across fresh 2016 lows (Apr. 27, 2016). While the median parallels provide considerable support / resistance, ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 30, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD Contrarian Argument
235 0 10
EURUSD, 30 Long
EURUSD Contrarian Argument

I'm going to go contrarian here, since I think the consensus behind NFP payroll numbers coming up is that yes, they will be high; at this point, they can only disappoint. If you recall last month's estimate of 175k blown out by an actual reading of 227k, the dollar weakened in response. Why? (Hint: It's the same reason the dollar weakened under a hawkish ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURJPY, 240, Short ,
EURJPY: EURJPY Bearish Channel Forming
75 0 4
EURJPY, 240 Short
EURJPY Bearish Channel Forming

As price action retraces the span from Brexit to EURJPY's year-end highs, a nice channel appears to be forming. Since the channel's inception, price action has not invalidated the outer limits of the channel; a cursory look at large-scale swing lows / swing highs reveals a rather strict adherence to the channel's median parallels. I plan to follow this trend, with ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd NZDUSD, 60, Short ,
NZDUSD: NZDUSD Valentine's Day Massacre
73 0 4
NZDUSD, 60 Short
NZDUSD Valentine's Day Massacre

With Janet Yellen's testimony in front of Congress keeping USD pairs trading within a rather conservative and cautious range, the game plan moving forward relies heavily on the "post-Fed trend" that occurs once tensions have eased and money starts changing hands again. Since then, Trump's comments on immigration reform, protectionism, and heavily manipulated trade ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 60, Long ,
EURUSD: Potential 2618 Trade Taking Shape
69 0 7
EURUSD, 60 Long
Potential 2618 Trade Taking Shape

A double bottom appears to be forming on the EURUSD, which has the potential to set up a 2618 trade should the bullish candlestick close above the previous outside return before retracing to the .618 of leg AB. This technical setup will, inevitably, face heavy headwinds with regards to fundamental outlook on USD strength. This trade is currently forming in a ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd NZDUSD, 15, Long ,
NZDUSD: NZDUSD Bullish Cypher
54 0 4
NZDUSD, 15 Long
NZDUSD Bullish Cypher

Riding a short since .74714, and I think it's about time to swing-trade this pattern. I have two targets in mind; one is more conventional for the pattern, but I think there's a chance the .74785 will be retested as part of the ongoing uptrend.

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 15, Short ,
EURUSD: EURUSD Return to Structure: "Enough with FOMC" Edition.
57 0 5
EURUSD, 15 Short
EURUSD Return to Structure: "Enough with FOMC" Edition.

I expect to see EU return to its pre-FOMC consolidation zone in the coming week; a lack of data on both sides of the pair should leave the markets to fluctuate organically and (presumably) return to more stable structure. In this case, the consolidation zone that formed the day before the Fed released its July minutes. Several structural levels have grown out of ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 15, Short ,
EURUSD: Likely market reaction to the Fed minutes
57 0 5
EURUSD, 15 Short
Likely market reaction to the Fed minutes

It is no surprise that the Fed has been remarkably successful in disappointing the market this year. Now that the year is winding down, the probability (or perceived probability, that is) of a near-term rate hike is gaining some weight. Let's hope to read anything but the words "wait and see" in the FOMC minutes!

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 30, Short ,
EURUSD: EURUSD Bearish Waves, pt. 2
46 0 3
EURUSD, 30 Short
EURUSD Bearish Waves, pt. 2

This trade is a play off my profitable two short trades (selling the original trend, then selling the retracement) last week (see related idea, pictured on left side of chart). Once price action broke support / resistance at the 1.11810 level, I'm in on a short with my sights on the 1.11450 level, and plan on sliding down my stops to the 1.11555 level should price ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd USDJPY, 30, Long ,
USDJPY: Little downside risk, but will it long?!
86 0 7
USDJPY, 30 Long
Little downside risk, but will it long?!

Caught a USDJPY long fresh off a rebound against prominent structure. Since I don't usually trade USDJPY, I tightened my stop a bit; hopefully structure alone will keep price action floating comfortably above. I will probably reposition stops once T1 is hit, as there is always the possibility of a T2 hit. Let's hope for a bullish spike following the release of TIC ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd NZDUSD, 60, Short ,
NZDUSD: Cypher pattern forming after post-RBNZ false high?
86 0 3
NZDUSD, 60 Short
Cypher pattern forming after post-RBNZ false high?

While yesterday's rate decision was a disaster for some (and a major payday for contrarians), some unique cypher-like qualities have come to light on the 1h chart. Most notably is the wick on the 17:00 candle (i.e. false high) post-RBNZ rate decision, which touches the 1.272 extension of a rally between the month-long low around .69500 and a double-top at .7280 ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 15, Short ,
EURUSD: EURUSD bearish waves
59 0 4
EURUSD, 15 Short
EURUSD bearish waves

Since last night's trade was quite profitable, I figured I'd try to quickly capitalize on the H&S pattern that formed on its initial retracement. Essentially I'm taking a similar short to that of a 2618 trade, but think of this as a... 2786 trade.

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd NZDUSD, 15, Short ,
NZDUSD: Crab-like structure ahead of RBNZ
86 2 5
NZDUSD, 15 Short
Crab-like structure ahead of RBNZ

Unlike my prior post on EURUSD, I think the RBNZ rate decision will work in my favor. While the fib ratios are ballpark (to say the least), upcoming rate decision will likely rocket the market down to the .71444 handle (target 1, which corresponds to 2011 and early 2015 structure lows), if not lower (target 2, recent structure). While it would be nice to see price ...

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