MattSzwyd

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About me Bass - cold brew - libertarianism - structure trading
Last visit Joined 11 months ago United States @matt_szwyd chromatickaleidoscope.com
Markets Allocation
100 % forex
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 50% | 6 NZDUSD 33% | 4 EURJPY 8% | 1 USDJPY 8% | 1
MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURJPY, 240, Short , 9 days ago
EURJPY: EURJPY Bearish Channel Forming
58 0 4
EURJPY, 240 Short
EURJPY Bearish Channel Forming

As price action retraces the span from Brexit to EURJPY's year-end highs, a nice channel appears to be forming. Since the channel's inception, price action has not invalidated the outer limits of the channel; a cursory look at large-scale swing lows / swing highs reveals a rather strict adherence to the channel's median parallels. I plan to follow this trend, with ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd NZDUSD, 60, Short , 10 days ago
NZDUSD: NZDUSD Valentine's Day Massacre
65 0 4
NZDUSD, 60 Short
NZDUSD Valentine's Day Massacre

With Janet Yellen's testimony in front of Congress keeping USD pairs trading within a rather conservative and cautious range, the game plan moving forward relies heavily on the "post-Fed trend" that occurs once tensions have eased and money starts changing hands again. Since then, Trump's comments on immigration reform, protectionism, and heavily manipulated trade ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 60, Long , 2 months ago
EURUSD: Potential 2618 Trade Taking Shape
67 0 6
EURUSD, 60 Long
Potential 2618 Trade Taking Shape

A double bottom appears to be forming on the EURUSD, which has the potential to set up a 2618 trade should the bullish candlestick close above the previous outside return before retracing to the .618 of leg AB. This technical setup will, inevitably, face heavy headwinds with regards to fundamental outlook on USD strength. This trade is currently forming in a ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd NZDUSD, 15, Long , 5 months ago
NZDUSD: NZDUSD Bullish Cypher
52 0 3
NZDUSD, 15 Long
NZDUSD Bullish Cypher

Riding a short since .74714, and I think it's about time to swing-trade this pattern. I have two targets in mind; one is more conventional for the pattern, but I think there's a chance the .74785 will be retested as part of the ongoing uptrend.

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 15, Short , 6 months ago
EURUSD: EURUSD Return to Structure: "Enough with FOMC" Edition.
54 0 4
EURUSD, 15 Short
EURUSD Return to Structure: "Enough with FOMC" Edition.

I expect to see EU return to its pre-FOMC consolidation zone in the coming week; a lack of data on both sides of the pair should leave the markets to fluctuate organically and (presumably) return to more stable structure. In this case, the consolidation zone that formed the day before the Fed released its July minutes. Several structural levels have grown out of ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 15, Short , 6 months ago
EURUSD: Likely market reaction to the Fed minutes
56 0 4
EURUSD, 15 Short
Likely market reaction to the Fed minutes

It is no surprise that the Fed has been remarkably successful in disappointing the market this year. Now that the year is winding down, the probability (or perceived probability, that is) of a near-term rate hike is gaining some weight. Let's hope to read anything but the words "wait and see" in the FOMC minutes!

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 30, Short , 6 months ago
EURUSD: EURUSD Bearish Waves, pt. 2
46 0 2
EURUSD, 30 Short
EURUSD Bearish Waves, pt. 2

This trade is a play off my profitable two short trades (selling the original trend, then selling the retracement) last week (see related idea, pictured on left side of chart). Once price action broke support / resistance at the 1.11810 level, I'm in on a short with my sights on the 1.11450 level, and plan on sliding down my stops to the 1.11555 level should price ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd USDJPY, 30, Long , 6 months ago
USDJPY: Little downside risk, but will it long?!
85 0 6
USDJPY, 30 Long
Little downside risk, but will it long?!

Caught a USDJPY long fresh off a rebound against prominent structure. Since I don't usually trade USDJPY, I tightened my stop a bit; hopefully structure alone will keep price action floating comfortably above. I will probably reposition stops once T1 is hit, as there is always the possibility of a T2 hit. Let's hope for a bullish spike following the release of TIC ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd NZDUSD, 60, Short , 6 months ago
NZDUSD: Cypher pattern forming after post-RBNZ false high?
84 0 2
NZDUSD, 60 Short
Cypher pattern forming after post-RBNZ false high?

While yesterday's rate decision was a disaster for some (and a major payday for contrarians), some unique cypher-like qualities have come to light on the 1h chart. Most notably is the wick on the 17:00 candle (i.e. false high) post-RBNZ rate decision, which touches the 1.272 extension of a rally between the month-long low around .69500 and a double-top at .7280 ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 15, Short , 6 months ago
EURUSD: EURUSD bearish waves
57 0 3
EURUSD, 15 Short
EURUSD bearish waves

Since last night's trade was quite profitable, I figured I'd try to quickly capitalize on the H&S pattern that formed on its initial retracement. Essentially I'm taking a similar short to that of a 2618 trade, but think of this as a... 2786 trade.

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd NZDUSD, 15, Short , 6 months ago
NZDUSD: Crab-like structure ahead of RBNZ
85 2 4
NZDUSD, 15 Short
Crab-like structure ahead of RBNZ

Unlike my prior post on EURUSD, I think the RBNZ rate decision will work in my favor. While the fib ratios are ballpark (to say the least), upcoming rate decision will likely rocket the market down to the .71444 handle (target 1, which corresponds to 2011 and early 2015 structure lows), if not lower (target 2, recent structure). While it would be nice to see price ...

MattSzwyd MattSzwyd EURUSD, 30, Short , 6 months ago
EURUSD: Potential 2618 Trade Ahead
98 0 4
EURUSD, 30 Short
Potential 2618 Trade Ahead

Spotted a nice little double top on the EURUSD 30-min chart. The trough between peaks is broken up by the weekend, but it's structure coincides with topside resistance to a bullish pennant on 7-27-16 @ 20:30, which then becomes support on the 29th. The downtrend following the second top breaks this support level, and a presumed retracement to the .618 level should ...

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