MichaelRudelich

MichaelRudelich Updated 

The market is still in its month long trading range. The odds still favor a new high, but every day that fails to get there reduces the probability. Even if the bulls get a new high, it will probably not go far. The bears need a good reversal set-up; like some form of a double top, and a big bear bar. Then they have a chance of at least a few days of selling....

MichaelRudelich

The market is still in its month long trading range. The odds still favor a new high, but every day that fails to get there reduces the probability. Even if the bulls get a new high, it will probably not go far. The bears need a good reversal set-up; like some form of a double top, and a big bear bar. Then they have a chance of at least a few days of selling....

MichaelRudelich Updated 

There is NO TOPPING PATTERN YET for the S&P. Until something changes, this is still a Bull rally (even if it is over-extended). Price could drop quickly, but sideways & down is the more probable scenario. The Measured Moves are derived from the Reference Range; each tier is a clone of that range. I tested it going back down, and one can see it fits pretty...

MichaelRudelich Updated 

(12-15) A couple of useful retracement price levels are indicated at the RED LINES on the chart. The current pullback's (or bear leg's) 50% level, and the 50% retracement of the last bull leg. The current bar could not hold above the 50% level of the current move down. Odds favor that the current bear leg is a pullback on the daily chart, rather than a...

MichaelRudelich

(12-7-16) There is NO TOPPING PATTERN yet for the small caps. Price is approaching the Large Range Measure (blue lines), and has followed my Small Range Measure quite nicely. Price could drop quickly, but the more likely scenario would be sideways & down. Until things change, this is still a Bull Trend (even if it is over-extended). My bias is long, but...

MichaelRudelich Updated 

Here are the support levels (measured moves) I'm looking at for the pullback (and sideways trading). They would also be the measured moves if/when price moves back up. They are the same measures I found on the 60 minute chart. I sold my long position during the 3rd bear bar, once it moved down into the second tier (measured move) from the top.

MichaelRudelich Updated 

IWM has pulled back for 2 days after a ridiculously strong bull trend. The pullback might last another day (or two). The odds are that it will make a new high, then evolve into a range, and probably drop off. Not sure yet how far up the new high might be; let's see how far the pullback goes first.

MichaelRudelich

Could be more sideways & down trading. Since markets usually start rallying in late October, a downside move might be brief. Blue lines represent possible measured moves down. Also note the gaps; they generally get filled.

MichaelRudelich

Bought this at 118., but the recent pullback created another opportunity to buy. A nice break of the bear trend line and a breakout of the consolidation.

MichaelRudelich

Took a hefty position @ 57.00. Target 1 is 58.18, Target 2 is 59.45, based on range height. Intra-day trade only. Got out @58.10.

MichaelRudelich

Russell 2000 (Small Cap Stocks) back where it was one year ago and several times since.