If we begin with the premise that we are surviving a parabolic bubble - and much of the buying in the initial run upwards resulted in sell offs on the way down as people try to exit at break even before they lose money. So the resulting people in the market now are either rekt or those who bought in late last year (or Mex/Alt artists). For this illustration I've...
Carefully watching for confirmation of a reversal here - 1) Low 2) Bounce 3) New low 4) Higher bounce With 6640 in this case being the buy signal. My own trading rules won't allow me to long here - macro trend is what it is, without confirmation. But as always it's good to be cognisant of both sides.
I'm becoming increasingly interested in this bullish scenario. NB: I'm still flat at the moment, with a bearish leaning. We have been making lower highs and lower lows on the daily so the trend is bearish. So this shouldn't be used to satisfy a bullish bias. Take it as consideration for now. With all that said, the following can't really be ignored without at...
So previous play resulted in the reversal I was looking for - this play will focus on where we are currently, and where we go from here: Weekly We suffered a strong reaction from that 84xx level and have now painted a massive 800 dollar move down. I believe this is the beginning of the road back to 6k. In hindsight this was obvious, as the sheer amount of...
I am not liking this price action one bit, as it is starting to play out one of the reversal scenarios I laid out in my previous thread. I'd encourage you to read through this before reading this post: For clarity in this post see this screenshot which I reference: So...what you are seeing in this idea is the price moving out of the ascending channel. These...
Current macro thoughts on $BTC We are still bullish and people should still feel bullish. We're making higher higher and higher lows, and none of that has been invalidated yet. The three diagonal lines I've drawn show areas of previous resistance, which in two cases are now support. The third and final one has yet to be crossed. We are currently in an...
Interesting macro play building here. Still very wary of playing alts while they're so choppy. I will not be trading this until the confirmation criteria is met.
Potential Reversal Scenario I want to state from the beginning, we are very bullish at the moment. We are making higher highs and higher lows on the macro level very consistently. Therefore there is no confirmation yet to suspect we are going to do anything but continue. This is a very important concept to understand. Without confirmation a chart is simply...
One possible scenario. Notes on chart. This represents good R/R as we're near the peak and final barrier. If it breaks down here, that's a steep drop. If not, SL hit and it'll move up into bull territory.
Someone asked me to look at ETH. We're currently sitting on what looks like a fairly important S/R level. You can see we've touched this point 8 times over the last year. Certainly within recent months this has held support very well. You can see the S/R levels on either side of our current position 68 or 76. So the question is, up or down? I'm inclined to say...
ADA seems to paint a little clearer picture, I'm liking what I see here. We're approaching a fairly critical support and I see an easy long in the mid 1900 range. The end.
So as expected we dropped into the 5s. Levels i'm looking at: 573x 559x 545x These lower levels are where it becomes dangerous to short IMO. At some point we are going to bounce, and we are definitely getting close. That bounce, will in all likelihood be like the previous ones and it'll be a massive buy order which will just eat up the order book. I'd like to...
I'm expecting a much stronger reaction in the 5s. We didn't see any price reaction at all, by dipping into the low 6s and high 5s recently which makes me think the 6s is not the bottom. There's still plenty of downside S/R levels before total capitulation in the low 5s. Plenty of ladder steps down between to be traded, or at least to be aware of. Bearish signs:...
We ran through critical resistance. 6k psychological will not hold either.
Stripping away all patterns, oscillators and diagonals this is what I'm paying attention to. They all line up to either psychological resistance or S/R levels defined by previous price action. Bullish scenario: Triple bottom and reversal. Which is supported by the defining features of a triple bottom: Spaced apart Roughly equal lows Volume declining Nothing...
What follows are my thoughts on BTC price action. I'm trying to objectively look at the charts on the larger time frames. Bear in mind this is done with my current skill set, with that said this is what I see: 1) Symmetrical triangle (ST) of higher lows and lower highs, which indicates continuation 75% of the time. Continuation in this case would be bullish, as...