UC has been trending downwards quite firmly playing within the blue channel for the last few weeks.
Recent low of 1.3640 seemed to be a turning point, but did not feel confident on the reversal until upper blue channel line was successfully crossed. Wave count suggested that today we would punch through, and indeed we did, after hitting point C at 1.3818....
Have been waiting for a confirmation of trend reversal after rally on 21.01.2016. As supply glut continues to grow, there is no reason for a resurgence in oil prices yet.
1. Rising blue wedge was broken,
2. Rejection from .764 line to confirm H&S.
3. Upper Yellow line now serving as resistance for downward wedge.
End of corrective wave C on...
It's not over yet for the UC bulls.
Fundamentally, market conditions have not changed too much despite the sell off in USD the last few weeks. Yes, data was disappointing, but in terms of U vs. C, these two items still remain:
1. Oil has yet to find a defined bottom.
2. Divergent policies banking between the USA and Canada.
Though, I do believe we maybe...