Natural_Gas_Trader

Natural_Gas_Trader

Possible cycle low on April 2. This cycle low is not convincing at this point but it is still a possible bottom. Green is bullish case from here, need to see multiple resistance levels broken. Orange is still bullish long term but short term bearish. Red is short term bullish but long term bearish. See previous charts for reference

Natural_Gas_Trader Updated 

A serious look at what to expect from UGAZ if natural gas changes it's trend and starts a bull rally. Many are stuck in UGAZ since 2019, natural gas is down 47% and UGAZ 89% from the November high. UGAZ is not down 3 times natural gas due to the rebalancing that occurs, unless there is a decline of more then 33% in one day it is not possible for UGAZ to go to...

Natural_Gas_Trader Updated 

The green line is an example of what would be needed to confirm the daily trend change. We must remain open to all possibilities natural gas may be due for a sustained rally but that doesn't mean it has too. After a bottom there will be a rally it is critical that after some consolidation the price continues higher. If the price is not able to continue high it...

Natural_Gas_Trader Updated 

This is a continuation of my 2020 bull rally theory, finding the best way of capitalizing on the potential opportunity in front of us is the next step. UNG follows the price of natural gas fairly well, UNG does experience rolling decay when futures are in contago. Contago is typical for natural gas futures. Because of the rolling decay holding UNG long term is...

Natural_Gas_Trader Updated 

This is a continuation of my 2020 bull rally theory, finding the best way of capitalizing on the potential opportunity in front of us is the next step. DGAZ performed as expected in a bull rally, substantial losses are seen during the initial rally from cycle low to following heating season. The losses continued from initial high to monthly cycle high but the...

Natural_Gas_Trader Updated 

This is a continuation of my 2020 bull rally theory, finding the best way of capitalizing on the potential opportunity in front of us is the next step. UGAZ did not perform well long term during the bull rallies of 2012 and 2016, substantial gains were seen initially but the decay and volatility prevent this product from having long term gains. After the initial...

Natural_Gas_Trader Updated 

Please review the cycle update charts for reference. This is the anticipated price targets based on the monthly and weekly cycle. The monthly bull runs that started in 2012 and 2016 occurred in two phases. The initial bounce from the lows with a high the following heating season, 107% & 148% from the low. Then a second spike in price, this was 241% and 206% from...

Natural_Gas_Trader

Monthly cycle lows are typically followed by extended bull rallies, it is anticipated that this trend will continue. The extended downtrend since late 2018 is similar to past cycles. Caution must still be exercised this is a somewhat rare opportunity but we must remain protective of our capital. The world is in a unique situation currently and this may affect the...

Natural_Gas_Trader

When this cycle ends a long term bull rally would be expected similar to what occurred in 2016 and 2012 but with the current situation EXTREME CAUTION must be exercised. I can not stress this enough, protect your capital at all costs in this environment. Just because the market should do something doesn't mean it has too, do not try to tell the market what to...

Natural_Gas_Trader

With the break of $1.75 natural gas continues the daily down trend. Bulls still have a chance to put in a higher low above $1.61 to start changing the weekly trend. Expected cycle low is only 3-4 weeks away, price targets remain the same. See previous charts for reference.

Natural_Gas_Trader

Mid cycle strength is notable but did not break structure. Continuation above $1.998 & $2.025 invalidates previous expectations. Continuation below $1.75 confirms previous price targets. Continuation below $1.61 significantly increase odds of $1.30 target being met. See previous charts for reference.

Natural_Gas_Trader

With the loss of the 1 hour and 4 hour trends and natural gas still in a daily down trend a short at this point is a good risk/reward trade. Entry will be on a clear lower high. If there is not a clear lower high will wait until the lower low breaks. Stop loss will be if the 15 minute enters a upward trend. Hard stop will be $1.972 See previous charts for reference.

Natural_Gas_Trader

Natural gas had a countertrend rally inline with the size and timeframe expected. The severity of this pull back is yet to be determined and all price targets are still in play. There is the possibility bulls could show up, there is sufficient space for a higher low to be created and negate the bearish case. See the related ideas below for the charts this one...

Natural_Gas_Trader

Natural gas is at a critical price this morning, if the bulls show up they have a chance to change the daily trend. If the price continues down bears remain in full control.

Natural_Gas_Trader

This chart is position planning based on the Daily Cycles Target and Countertrend Rally charts published last week. Patiently waiting for this rally to fail. UNG puts take advantage of the expected decay. Enter on confirmed bearish hourly trend change. Exits: extreme bullish reversal, exit if hourly down trend fails bullish daily higher low, exit on hourly...

Natural_Gas_Trader

Natural gas has regular countertrend rallies. The pink arrows are when the daily cycle turned bearish, a counter trend rally started soon after. Countertrend rallys typical have gone up to the previous consolidation level, this would be approximately $1.80. Trading sideways is also a possibility if the bulls can not get any momentum, similar to what was seen in...

Natural_Gas_Trader

Daily cycle low is expected around April 10. Price target is $1.60 to about $1.30 $1.60 price target - 2016 low providing support. $1.50 price target - 25% from cycle high, 2 previous daily cycles were about 25% from cycle high to cycle low $1.30 price target - this is more an area and very difficult to estimate. This would be based mainly on the long term trend...