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A few weeks ago we shared some analysises for ETH and we said that a big move is coming because ETHBTC was at the most important trend line in its history. We favored the bull scenario because it had all the ingredients for a nice move up (oversold, TD9 on the weekly, bullish divergences on high time frames etc) but unfortunately the market chose the bear scenario ...
The bears are getting weaker and there are 2 things pointing to this:
1. even though we had 3 lower lows (6128, 6008, 5858) the distance in time and price between them is smaller compared to the previous pivots and the bounces from each low are bigger too
2. bullish divergence on RSI and MACD on every time frame between H3 and H12
On the M15 time frame we have a ...
Rising wedge + constant rejection of price above 6450 is not bullish at all. The bears rushed to sell each time we were near the 0.236 retracement level. The break of this wedge could send us to 6000 where we might find some bulls.
We bought the dip for our clients and we hope that you also bought it because you had a lot of reasons to do it (bullish divergences on rsi, srsi, macd on major tf, shorts at an extreme level, BB w bottom on the 6h tf). Now the question is where do we take profit because this is not the rally to the moon.
In our oppinion btc wil reach the 0.382 level in the best ...
After SEC's announcement BTC fell pretty hard and it looks like it found support at the level where the IH&S had the shoulders. On the daily chart we had a TD9 and we fell 26.28% without a correction. Watch the price action at the 0.382 level.
We have a local triple bottom and we can see a constant rejection of the prices under the 0.65 level. This trade has a good risk reward ratio because there is no reason to put the stop loss far. We also have a TD9 on H1 and SRSI is dead.
Looking at the last 2 bull rallies it's hard not to see the similarities between them. If the symmetry will continue, the next bearish impulse should end right at 5178 and if we get there we will have created a descending wedge over a period of ~ 6 months. If it breaks the support when it hits the target it will be a text book buy according to Wolfe Wave theory ...
ADA is in a parallel channel in which the median line played an important role. For now we are trading under the median line and if we close like this the chances of going to the support of the channel are quite high.
Last time we talked about TRX we were expecting it to bounce from 400 but it bounced from 409 and it got rejected again by the 25 Day MA. Because we already bounced from ~ 400 we can not buy at 400 with the same confidence but we will buy between 354-335.
Patience is key here because you don't want to be on the wrong side of this trade.
On the weekly TF we had a TD9 and we didn't bounce. Until 0.0535 is broken we have a hidden bullish divergence on RSI and SRSI looks like it wants to make a bullish cross.
Technically 7455 had every reason to hold because it was a cluster of supports in that area (golden cross 20&50 daily MA, 0.382, downtrend line, high volume node) but for the moment there are two things worrying us: the lack of volume and the bearish cross on MACD.
So, assuming that you are a bull and you bought the 0.382 where do you take profit? If we break ...
For the moment we are bullish on BTC and we expect to see at least an attempt of creating a higher high before resuming the downtrend but what if 7469 doesn't hold? We have 2 buying zones but the more it falls the less likely it is to recover and create a higher high. If 7469 holds you can see our taking profit areas on the chart.
Thicker line = bigger confluence ...
We expect the hype to continue until 8-10 August and create a higher high inside the wedge . During the decision day expect high volatility . If the SEC postpones the decision we could see a retest of the IH&S neckline.
This is our trade set-up for now. BTC might have found support in the golden pocket. If so then it should aim for the upper boundary of the downtrend channel and if it breaks it then it should go towards 8800.