Test of dynamic channels and some statistics made by hand.
This indicator was done specifically for the S&P500 index.
As you can see, below the 125 EMA there's a lot more volatility than in the upside. I've made some kind of a dynamic linear regression of the lows and the highs.
How to use this indicator
Green = First grade support/resistance.
4 years Presidential Cycle
This is a test to verify the 4 year presidential cycle. If we take 50 months instead of 48, the result is a little bit more accurate.
The conclusion is that we could expect an important low approximately every 50 months .
I'm amazed how the DJIA respects the trendline... started in 1897!!!
I'm using the logarithmic scale for long term analysis.
There's also another thing that blew my mind... how the Fibonacci levels are respected in the previous highs to the coronavirus.
Copper is on an historical resistance. If it breaks with enough volume, it will be a good time to go long. Now is "breathing", doing a little bit of correction, we could even say lateralizing with lower volume than before, meaning it is still in uptrend. In the next few weeks we should see if it breaks or not.
Expected increase in price of commodities for this year.
Remember that in this index, each asset has different a weight and includes 19 commodities. According to Investopedia:
39% allocated to energy contracts
41% to agriculture
7% to precious metals
13% to industrial metals
SPGSCI: S&P Goldman & Sachs Commodity Index
This is a simple trade, with a good reward/ratio.
This four months channel has been very accurate. Yesterday there was a confirmation pull-back on the floor of the channel, so today it's a good day to go long. It's very similar to DAX30's chart, beware of correlation between your trades. Don't pay attention to the indicators, price action has always...