Look boys, the move up has been corrective... i know, i know "the shorts are at an ATH" but what can i say these levels have been holding and we are looking over bought
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Since BTC broke out of the downtrend channel we have continued to push up higher while heavily respecting the new uptrend channel
- our target for this move up is The pink box you see highlighted on the chart which was determined by looking at key resistance levels along with low volume wells on the VPVR
Looking at a BTCUSD -0.58% chart and USDBTC chart to help overcome any bias seems to show that BTC -0.58% MIGHT be forming a triangle here
Looking for us to hold this zone over the next few days
- I think we might hold because this is a massive demand zone, and for the move up I see the descending trendline as where we get rejected
I COULD BE WRONG -...
Couple things happening here
1) ADA found long-term trendline support
2) Bullish RSI divergence on higher time frames
3) Completion of what appears to have been an ABC correction, confirmation comes for the bounce off of the .618 fib extension of A as well as the bullish...
This retrace took long enough to start, I believe we are retracing the move from 6600 to 9700 so the correction should be relatively significant i'm thinking 8k but it doesn't HAVE to go that low 8500 would make sense too
There are two ways i think that this could play out, Option B seems a bit more likely to me at the moment. Also this projects pretty far i highly doubt the move is gonna be this clean changes will definitely need to be made over time but for now this is what we got.
At the most basic level there are only 2 possibilities
1: we are correcting down
2: We are impulsively going down
If option #1 is correct then extpect a strong continuation downward indicated by the Blue wave count
If #2 is correct expect a continued move down on fading momentum indicated...
This is just an update to the current move that we've been in, I wasn't sure about this being a diagonal but seeing how the channel held in this recent drop i'm thinking that it might have been the case after all
The other chart where i'm discussing the RSI divergence is also suggesting this type of move so either this is confirmation bias on my part or we have...
We have HEAVY bullish divergence on the RSI and a good target for the 1.618 to be the end of wave 3
we did hit the 1:1 extension of 1 and immediately corrected from there, I am assuming that this was only a subwave of 3 rather than the entire wave but i could be wrong on this point...
Alright team, we got ourselves a nice little channel that has been pretty nice to us... but that bearish RSI divergence is popping out telling us to expect a drop in price.
I see 2 scenarios
1: we begin to move down and the channel acts as a support and we stay inside of it
2: we break the channel and then move down a lot more
For waves that occur over long periods of time looking at a normal arithmetic price scale lacks the ability to normalize exponential growth. Under these circumstances, by looking at the logarithmic scale we see a different perspective on how price has been moving. This also makes it easier to plot waves.
We got a level right around 8250 that we haven't hit yet, i think that we will hit it and get rejected off of it. Then for the move down we pull a fib and use the .382 and .5 as take profit levels. After that I am looking for a continuation of the move up but chances are that i will wait for price to invalidate a few bearish scenarios before taking positions. Also...
On a bigger timeframe, it looks like we are forming a Contracting Triangle. These will generally have a .618 relationship with one pair of internal waves or more. Currently, we have already had the relationship occur once, meaning that it doesn't HAVE to happen again. However, assuming that it does we have a good idea of where things are headed. I Included another...
The move up that took us here looks like it ended with a truncated 5th wave, starting from that point it looks like we are forming a descending triangle and our expectation would be a continuation of the move up
(this is only in the short term I do think that we are headed lower overall)