Observe_Think_Act_Think

Observe_Think_Act_Think

Context : As I explained in my post earlier, I expected strong selling in the zone 11380-11630. Remember this zone is where the shock moves started happening in February 2020. I actually did not trade much in the zone, but I started shorting around the upper range of the zone - around 11600. About Trade : I have been positional short from Sept 13, I bought Oct...

Observe_Think_Act_Think Updated 

Context : August 31 was a the day when NIFTY broke it's normal routine of moving up slowly, which started in June. It also followed up by another leg of down move on Sep 4. I was able to play both these moves because of sound strategies. And Now with these two successful attempts, I completely understand , shorting again may not be a good idea. ****...

Observe_Think_Act_Think Updated 

Background or Context I have posted my crazy short (below) which completed its run to the target in just 1 day. Then there was 3 day of consolidation. So far in strong up market, NIFTY has always bounced from such dips forming consecutive higher highs. This has happened with momentum. This time, the momentum is lacking. In bearish trend, bull patterns fail and...

Observe_Think_Act_Think Updated 

Background NIFTY filled the large gap it created - . This is the zone, where I expected sudden movement and stood away from trading in that zone. This gap is not filled and NIFTY is looking as bullish as it can get. So from trend following perspective, only 'the stupid' trader can short NIFTY or BANK NIFTY. But very few times, crazy traders can bet on...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

Dear Traders, I started playing around with the Tradingview around March end. I posted my first idea on March 27. Since then I have shared 136 posts. My goal of sharing this trade log daily was 1. Use simple observations to form a viewpoint of the market. 2. Trading in risk averse style. I traded mostly with a single lot and most of the time closed my positions...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

My last two updates August 24 : NIFTY is on it’s way to the upper boundary of the gap -11633. I don't know how fast it can travel, But I expect that target to get achieved in this expiry. If It gets to 11633 in the next two sessions, I plan to take a reversal trade with tight stop loss. Till then, just ride the trend using intraday breakouts. August 25 : For...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my yesterday’s trade log, I said "NIFTY is on it’s way to the upper boundary of the gap -11633. I don't know how fast it can travel, But I expect that target to get achieved in this expiry. If It gets to 11633 in the next two sessions, I plan to take a reversal trade with tight stop loss. Till then, just ride the trend using intraday breakouts." Nothing...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

My weekly view for August 24 - 28 As I have mentioned, I am not comfortable trading the 11380-11630 zone with overnight positions. I am only trading intra day. I'll trade either below 11380 or near 11630 with positional trade...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my last week’s post (link below) I wrote “There are two possibilities for the coming week. Possibility 1: Consolidation in zone 11312 - 11050. This basically means, the move on Friday could not get great follow up selling. Possibility 2: New downswing starts which takes NIFTY below 11000, around 10830 as the first target. This move has to be fast and...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

August 20 Trade Log “I have a bearish bias for tomorrow. If not bearish , at least consolidation below 11350. For short 11350 is alert level and then 11370 can be a stop.” My expectation was not correct. NIFTY opened the gap up and traded above 11370 for the day. My Trades No trades for the day today. My Observations for the day NIFTY closed...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my trade logs of August 18 and August 19, I had mentioned why I am not not trading even when NIFTY is making high above 11400 August 18 Post August 19 Post From the post “All indicators are showing high bullishness. But as I said, since we are close to the monthly trend change level, I am being very cautious and not taking sides. What that...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my post of August 18, I explained why I’ll trade lightly in the zone 11380-11630. Please refer to the post. My trades No trades today My observations for the day NIFTY was tightly range bound in 11400 - 11460. It closed 0.20% up. BANK NIFTY closed 0.52% up VIX dropped below 20. It is now at 19.96 Advance Decline is 28 to 22. My view for tomorrow...

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In my post yesterday I said With today’s price action nothing changed. I need to see a clear signal to change my view, which is currently bearish consolidation. Tomorrow, if NIFTY resumes, the downtrend again back towards the bottom of the range 11110-11140, it will strengthen the view. Any close above 11320, I need to change my side. So I changed my...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my weekly review (link below) post, I said There are two possibilities for the coming week. Possibility 1: Consolidation in zone 11312 - 11050. This basically means, the move on Friday could not get great follow up selling. Possibility 2: New downswing starts which takes NIFTY below 11000, around 10830 as the first target. This move has to be fast and...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

Review of the week August 10-14 I had posted a detailed view (Link below). I outlined two possibilities, out of which possibility 1 got confirmed and nearly hit the lower range of target zone of 11380-11440. In summary, last week was 4 day consolidation and then a large engulfing candle which engulfed all 4 prior candles. Technically speaking, this was the...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

In my August 13 post, I had said “I have a bearish view for tomorrow. I consider the 1 hr candle (11.00 AM) which failed the opening gap and for the day, there was no attempt to recover above 11320. This view is invalid when NIFTY stays above 11360.” I had also mentioned the possibility of big red candle in my post dated “One very interesting...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

From August 11,12 I had the same view NIFTY likely to have a pending upside for the climax to 11380. And then possible formation of an intermediate top which has to be confirmed by moving down below at least the recent low of 10880. Overall, NIFTY is slow moving and the climax move has not happened yet. There is sideways movement in the tight range of...

Observe_Think_Act_Think

I expressed my thoughts in August 11 post If global cues are supportive , then NIFTY may attempt another go towards 11380-11390 zone. I think this level should pose some resistance. With VIX slowing down, intraday range is compressing. I do not have a clear view for tomorrow. One very interesting observation is, both days and the week so far has formed...