$XLE broke below weekly support, which happens to be 0.768 Fibonacci support level as well.
I'd want to get long at $70.50 as it'll be the 0.618 level of Fibonacci support and also other important technical factors coincide in that zone. Including volume profile value area high at the same level.
Energy is going strong, long term trend is set with $XLE outperforming the benchmark index despite market volatility and rates breaking out higher last week.
$XLE/$SPY made a classic Wycoff pattern then shot up higher this year. If history is a guide, this trend is the beginning of at least a decade long uptrend.
Going long here seems justified as selling volume peaked last week, followed by a green close this week. Sellers are unable to drive price further down, and the next level of liquidity is around 38000.
Short term bullish reversal. Long term still bearish.
Is this the supercycle top for US stock market? If my labeling is correct, this is supercycle wave 5 of cycle wave 5 of intermediate wave 5. That means, we have reached the top on several time frames.
Nasdaq needs to hold above 12000 pts otherwise the long-term bull trend is technical over. It appears that the final Elliot wave (#5) for this extended bull run is ending. What remains to be confirmed is whether this drawdown is a reversal of the 12 year bull market or a correction and continuation will occur.
