On Dec 27, 2018 I assumed 2 main alternatives for DJI trend in update to DJIA long term forecast (wave analysis) publication.
On last Friday it became obvious that 2nd alternative is in play. (the most probable outcome)
"2) bear market have just completed 1st wave of bigger drop. so price might continue downward move after a reasonable correction." — Dec 27,...
looks like EURUSD has formed A and B waves of ABC flat pattern.
rate broke out of B wave structure.
if current assumption is true, wave C should be anticipated.
mid-term targets are 1.159 and 1.18.
light blue line with upward slope should serve as support. if rate breaks below that line, uptrend assumption will be compromised.
it seems USDCHF uptrend is weak.
RSI shows divergence.
price action from Feb 12:50 looks like incomplete ABC corrective structure, which may also evolution to new downtrend.
the fact that market rejected breakout to the upside, which occurred a few hours ago, supports this assumption.
on the other hand, market is not moving to the downside, anticipating US retail...
Yesterday GBPUSD brake out of downward trend.
I expect this upside reversal will continue.
Today, it is likely that gbp will shift sideways, correcting the recent uptrend, which is marked as wave 1 (green).
In mid term gbp is expected to reach at least 1.33. if recent uptrend structure holds.
light blue line with upward slope should serve as support. its breakout...
There is a big opportunity to make profits using carry trading strategy.
If you open short position on EURTRY and hold it for a year, you will gain 15.9% on swaps.(usd account)
short position eurtry. volume 100k - 1 standard lot.
49.67$ will be paid to your account every time you hold your position overnight. (3 times over weekend).
In one year you will...
USDJPY shows nice upward movement.
it's 1st time price climbs back above 1 std of 50 MA on weekly chart since March 2017.
I appreciate this trend will drive price further up.
1st notable resistance level is 118.7 - 1 std of 50 MA on monthly chart.
STD 5 is rising on weekly chart.
Ukrainian hryvnia demonstrated big gains against USD from late January to mid march.
Surge was very fast. the fastest since UAHUSD recovered from biggest fall in early 2015.
So I appreciate it as an active wave.
I expect UAHUSD to resume its uptrend after this correction is completed.
looks like DJIA is forming a triangle pattern.
if it is true, wave e should not move beyond wave c (24850).
estimated sell targets are: 22729, 21482, and 19464 (extensions of 26621-23368 price movement).
actual targets should be updated when triangle is clarified.
Here is my BTCUSD wave analysis.
Looks like BTC is performing a big (A)-(B)-(C) correction pattern.
Now btc forms bearish wave (C), which should have a 1-2-3-4-5 structure.
wave 2 is expected to form a-b-c pattern and reach next targets: 12395, 13892 and 16315. (fibo extensions of blue wave a)
After that big fall should unfold. sooner or later.
Target 1734 $...
wave 4 is abc
c is (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
looks like wave (3) is formed and wave (4) is forming
wave (3) is 61.8% of wave (1)
there is still a chance wave 4 to be a triangle, which is almost formed.
but it also might be a flat
if it is a triangle it might be a minor correction inside extended wave (3)
anyway I expect al least one more big move down, which should show...
I have some arguments to iditify trend revesal in usdjpy.
wave C(yellow) formed a complete 5 wave structure.
rsi shows a divergence between 3rd and 5th waves.
so, expected ABC correction might be finished.
recent move up has no divergence between its tops.
yes, it broke trendline, but it means nothing.
in case of...
watch a flag breakout
s-term sell targets on the chart.
m-term sell targets:
warning: this down move might be a minor part of a more complex correction, than current abc.
trade with care according to your strategy!
gold formed 5 wave structure.
wave 5 = 161.8% * wave 1
trendline was broken, so correction is expected.
there is also divergence on H1.
gold should be corrected at least to 1131.13.
trade according to your strategy! good luck!
trendline of wave A(green) was broken. there were divergence on H1.
it made and broke 2 more flags.
green wave A should be corrected. (at least to 1221)
buy target, based on recent price action, is 1226.
look for entry point according to your strategy. next flag, etc..