I no longer publish trading ideas because I realised that my actual trading performance varies far too widely with my posts. E.g. my chart plan says sell but I bought because there's money to be made. Essentially I'm a trader - not a forecaster.
Gold is back in correction mode before trend resumption, so there are 2 tradable paths. I'm assuming this correction won't be as slow moving as Sep-Dec 2019 correction. IF it is slow, this ABC plan will fail. I'm reasonably confident a bounce here off 1546 ought to break 1563 local high. Flexibility and speed are needed here and the TPs can change.
I was initially building long positions off 1450-60 double bottom play until this correction appeared before Nov month end. So I closed off all long positions for 3 reasons:
1. Break 1450 recent low.
2. Triangle bottom - which will take 1-2 more weeks to end.
3. Break into new low below 1445. TP is 1425.
Looking at monthly close, a new low below 1445 is worst...
As per parallel channel: there is a corrective pattern that's formed worthy of shorting. Also, prices at or above 1529 was bound to attract interim TP from bulls.
However longs are still controlling the monthly chart and monthly candle hasn't closed. So prices could ping pong until first week of October until bears can comfortably gain footing.
As per chart I'm biased downtrend because of the X wave into latest A wave. Then a major uptrend into downtrend. Invalidation is if price travels above A, in which case, the larger downtrend will come sooner than later.
Based on this analysis, the next set of downtrend ($250+ moves) have already started and will continue until approx Jan-Feb 2021. Since that's 8 quarters away gold may use 1 entire quarter to either range in a box formation or as a series of ABCs/WXYs. On a fundamentals view I see more risk for gold to fall in a rate hike (inflation) pause environment.
Following the bearish monthly view, this is my updated count:
For now, going long for corrective moves is quite safe.
For short plan: Wave 5 of 1 is done with all calculations fulfilled. The ideal area to short is as per yellow box due to the previous downswing, however anything above 1302 is technically a selling zone. Stops go above 1347 swing high as per...
E leg is acting as an impulsive leg (bait) but it's recommended to trade this after next weekly candle or monthly close to confirm the reversal.
Weekly view is showing a different count so if there's bullishness then a breakout will target 1420 or 1495 before the next downward trend resumes.
I'm guessing the ABC levels here honestly because I'm scalping longs. My gut tells me we're still in A of ABC on hourly basis. As long as an ABC forms here, shorts are better.
In this instance I'm satisfied that 1357 made the high (1357-1204=$153) as well as other calculations from daily and weekly. I've flipped shorts to longs 5 times in nearly 2 months due to...