Paul_Varcoe

Paul_Varcoe Updated 

Here at Mayfair we have spent literally years trying to save all of you from getting caught out in Bitcoin. It's at times like these that we have stepped forward and warned you that all that glitters is not gold. Right now Crypto Twitter (Crypto X??) is bullish, like it is every time a breakout seems possible. Wanting to be right is never enough. Let's look back...

Paul_Varcoe

There have been quite few books written about this, and mainly, they deal with how to avoid being defeated by your own fear and greed. Fair enough, and this article does NOT replace them. The books are best suited to those who have traded for a while, and need to improve their performance. If you are a beginner, you won't know the first thing about the various...

Paul_Varcoe

You may not believe this, but it is very difficult to trade the markets. Here is a statistic to back it up: 90% of new traders lose 90% of their stake in the first 90 days. This is well known to the brokers, so they will do almost anything to get you to sign up, so they can get your money from you. Mostly they don't even send your orders to the market. They...

Paul_Varcoe Updated 

I wrote this 18 months ago. I still stand by every word. TLDR: April 2022.. Recession fears, interest rate hikes, high inflation In the first phase of a recession, the market falls due to fear because "everyone knows a recession is coming" In the second phase, companies report excellent profits because "duh it's inflation that's why we raise our prices"...

Paul_Varcoe

Just look at the weekly chart. Inversion level (my own term) is a level where once it breaks through it tens to stay there for a while and takes more than a couple of attempts to break through. So my bias is short until we get a decent break and a successful retest. Imagine this as a 15m chart. What would you think of it? You would be looking to sell, so why...

Paul_Varcoe

The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report gives a snapshot of the minds of professional traders. It means that while they spend 100% of the time knowing our positions, because they are our brokers and bankers, we get a 5% glimpse once a week into theirs. While we only see a small sample of the positions (just the ones on the futures exchanges basically), it...

Paul_Varcoe Updated 

I have proved before in this post that the big boys are big enough to push the price wherever they want. Now we have the smoking gun. From the CFTC's suit against Binance: During the Relevant Period, Binance has traded on its own platform through approximately 300 “house accounts” that are all directly or indirectly owned by Zhao, as well as accounts owned by...

Paul_Varcoe Updated 

Update from vacation in Stellenbosch South Africa! It's lovely here. That is all. OK, seriously, in the associated posts I spelled out why it was dumb to follow the "influencers" who just want you to trade, and who don't care if you make money. They were all howling for the moon at $24-$25k. The screenshot on the chart had BUY BITCOIN !!!!!!!! 3 weeks...

Paul_Varcoe

Here's something I prepared earlier in the year. I still think this is valid, though it is six weeks old. Last week I published this. It's up 25% since then. Not bad, eh? Please beware of the perma-bulls. It is all to easy to go off early, because it's exciting. This bullish action simply helps to confirm that we are likely accumulating, NOT that the...

Paul_Varcoe

The Composite Operator. "…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you...

Paul_Varcoe

That got your attention, didn't it? While it IS coming, we don't mean right now this week. This sort of post always gets people's attention. There are lots of them like it at present, and we are all only human. It is very difficult to ignore visual stimulus like this, but you simply have to if you are going to survive in the trading world. The world was full...

Paul_Varcoe Updated 

The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data. “Following the ION cyber-related incident, reporting firms are continuing to experience some issues submitting timely and accurate data to the CFTC. As a result, the weekly Commitments of Traders (CoT) report that normally would have been published on Friday, February 17, will be postponed." ...

Paul_Varcoe Updated 

This thing is not yet cooked. It's so exciting to see it moving upwards after so many months, isn't it? It is a bullish sign so far according to our analysis, but looking in the oven when the pudding is trying to rise is not advisable. This is a MONTHLY move, and they can be incredibly protracted. This one is no exception. The volume isn't what it should be...

Paul_Varcoe

This is how influencers make loads of money. I am just using this one as an example, because I know them the best. They are probably not the worst one. Step 1. Make it look like you are mega rich and successful, basically make sheeple aspire to be you so that they forget logic and reality. Step 2. Open your mouth really wide. I have NO idea why this works but...

Paul_Varcoe

At the moment there are a lot of internet "gurus" spouting nonsense. The guy in the picture is just one example. Over 500,000 subscribers being told that BITSTAMP:BTCUSD will be $50,000 in the next 3-4 months and to buy it up here after this rally. They are all telling you EXACTLY WHAT YOU WANT TO HEAR. When the price was $18,000 they were saying it was all...

Paul_Varcoe

For those of you that have been following me and @Mayfair_Ventures there is nothing new yet apart from more evidence that our picture is correct. The Monthly and Weekly Elliott Waves shown are unchanged. We know that technically the Monthly is broken, but as we are not religious fundamentalist Elliotticians we don't mind. The new data we see in this picture is...

Paul_Varcoe

Here is a link to my partner's post on the same thing: I have made my post shorter, but added direct links to the predictions he has made, so you can read how right he has been over a very long time. If you can be bothered to click each one, then you will learn a LOT about how institutionalised markets work. We at Mayfair bang on about what institutional...

Paul_Varcoe

I have been a trader for a very long time, so listen as I spit some facts. News is worse than a distraction, it ACTIVELY inhibits you from making good decisions. You have TradingView at your fingertips and it contains all the information you need, in a package so advanced it's frightening. STICK TO PRICE ACTION! I will say this again at the end. I am 100%...