Physik

Physik

Description: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Measured Move at 2886; 50.0% and 61.8% Retracements; 50 Moving Average; Choppy Profile Distributions. Technical: On 4/6, the market successfully broke higher with last Monday’s open being followed by an open-drive to the upside. Monday’s session put in a p-shape profile distribution,...

Physik

Description: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: 3-days of balance ($2460-$2525); declining volume; 20-day moving average; 4/2 Low of $2424.75. Technical: On 3/23, the market broke below $2270 (the bottom of a major balance area) and one time-framed higher through 3/26. For that week, multiple profile distributions resembled elongated...

Physik

Description: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: 2-day balance; 2700 and 2400 targets. Technical: Last Monday, we dropped below a week long balance area. Thereafter, /ES immediately reversed and one time-framed higher until March 25, hitting the 2524 fib level. The market broke through that level and retested Friday. Thursday and Friday’s...

Physik Updated 

Justification: Directional Play: Yes, sticking to my thesis from a while back that gold and silver have room to pullback. Technical: Long-term support and resistance level. Fundamental: Contra to popular belief, /SI and /GC are not acting like safe-havens. If/Then: Take profit? 50% credit received Where will you hedge? $16.15 Strategy Details: Short...

Physik

Description: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: 50 week moving average (which sits on a 50% retracement level); 3-day balance and 2440 level; 2015 and 2016 distribution area; cycle analysis. Technical: On Monday, /ES dropped to a 61.80% retracement and balanced around that level until Friday news was followed by a move to prior day...

Physik Updated 

Aside from this, I am wishing everyone good health. Crazy times we live in. Justification: Directional Play: Just trying to flatten my delta in $SPX. I will look to manage these trades independently. Technical: Above 50% retracement, below 161.8% projection. Fundamental: If/Then: Take profit? 50% of credit received. Where will you hedge? $1900 and...

Physik Updated 

Justification: Directional Play: Yes, sticking to my thesis from a while back that gold and silver have room to pullback. Long-term, could it go up? Potentially. Technical: Between 20 and 50 moving averages. Fundamental: Contra to popular belief, /SI and /GC are not acting like safe-havens. If/Then: Take profit? 50% credit received Where will you hedge?...

Physik

Description: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: 200 weekly moving average; Friday’s low; trend line projected from 2009 and 2011 lows; the 2018 low, as well as 2015 and 2016 distribution area; 2720 balance area for retracement; cycle analysis. Technical: Broke out of a week long balance Thursday (i.e., cluster that included a 100.00%...

Physik Updated 

Description: An analysis for this historic week ahead. Points of Interest: Fib clusters at 2710, 200 moving average, failure to get above key retracement levels, Friday $VIX pop to $50+ and break out of balance. Technical: Failed to get above key retracement levels (i.e., 50% and 61.8%). Poor structure (untested POCs or the levels where most amount of...

Physik Updated 

Justification: Directional Play: Dynamic short delta play. Capitalizing on high IV. Will look to the put side if the opportunity presents itself. Technical: Above 61.8% retracement. Fundamental: Fed cut rates; consumer fundamentals in a good place; goods trade deficit contracted; manufacturing business outlook recently rose to it's highest levels, but virus and...

Physik Updated 

Justification: Directional Play: Short delta. Long-term I think gold could go higher, but it seems extended here and IV is high. Technical: Above 261.8% extension. Fundamental: Fed just made an emergency cut; spending sees loss in momentum, but consumer fundamentals in a good place; goods trade deficit contracted; manufacturing business outlook recently rose to...

Physik Updated 

Description: Things I'm thinking about this morning. Points of Interest: Untested POCs, October low, 200 moving average, 50% and 61.8% retracements, gap at the beginning of the sell-off, Monday $VIX pop to $40+. Technical: Untested POCs (see related ideas) beneath February high were erased in a swift correction. In my opinion, the virus-related news...

Physik Updated 

Justification: Directional Play: Yes, establishing long delta position to reduce short delta and margin. Technical: Below October low. If/Then: Take profit? 50% of credit received. Where will you hedge? $1410 Strategy Details: Short and Long leg: $1410, $1395 Short Leg Delta: 0.16 Expiration: March 6 Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share...

Physik Updated 

What a sell-off! Here is a quick summary of how I was able to turn a sizeable loser into a winner. Trade 1: Opening Credit Put Spread $1.10CR To Establish Dynamically Long Position Short Leg: 2020-02-20 Sold 1 RUT 03/06/20 Put 1595.00 @ 3.75 Long Leg: 2020-02-20 Bought 1 RUT 03/06/20 Put 1575.00 @ 2.65 Trade 2: Opening Credit Call Spread $2.20CR To Reduce...

Physik Updated 

Description: Things I'm thinking about tonight. Points of Interest: Massive gap, trendline break, location between 20 and 50 moving averages on daily chart (), untested POCs. Technical: Poor structure (untested POCs) beneath Sunday's overnight. We had a week of balancing and Friday left a poor low. Fundamental: Fed really supportive;...

Physik Updated 

Things I'm thinking about.

Physik

Some things I am thinking about.

Physik Updated 

Description: Initiating a long delta position in $RUT via a credit spread. Justification: - Directional Play: Yes, adding long delta and improving my theta/vega numbers with this short duration, high IV play. - Technical: Below 20 and 50 moving averages. We finally saw what markets crashing down looks like (again); in the /ES we took out a VPOC and currently...