PrometheusAM

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About me The Prometheus Global Macro Fund CIO; politically minded, freethinker, reader, writer, behavioralist, stoic
Last visit Joined 2 years ago Australia PrometheusAM www.prometheus-am.com
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Markets Allocation
37 % forex 35 % commodities 6 % stocks 22 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
HG1! 14% | 15 GC1! 8% | 9 GBPUSD 6% | 7 USDJPY 5% | 6
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO GC1!, D, Short , 2 days ago
GC1!: GOLD | Momentum Mean-Reversion Model Signals Short
26 0 2
GC1!, D Short
GOLD | Momentum Mean-Reversion Model Signals Short
As the MACD looks to roll over in TY1 and the rise in yields looks to resume, gold is in a bind given the two have a notable inverse correlation!
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO ZC1!, W, Long , 2 days ago
ZC1!: CORN | Weekly Chart
11 0 3
ZC1!, W Long
CORN | Weekly Chart
It's arguably a similar case to the former on wheat... Buying within the lowest decile in a decade, a very asymmetric return distribution, a potential break-out of the down trend.
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO ZW1!, W, Long , 2 days ago
ZW1!: WHEAT | Weekly Chart
14 0 3
ZW1!, W Long
WHEAT | Weekly Chart
A rather logical looking interpretation. There's a reasonable degree of support, whilst we're buying in the lowest percentiles of the last decade. Further, the probability of the downtrend being breached looks increasingly likely. Further, the return distribution of commodities is particularly convex or asymmetric ...
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO AUDSGD, D, Long , 2 days ago
AUDSGD: AUDSGD | Rounded bottom
8 0 4
AUDSGD, D Long
AUDSGD | Rounded bottom
Rounded bottom in AUDSGD & potential breakout of its historical distribution.
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO ZW1!, D, Long , 2 days ago
ZW1!: WHEAT | Nudging above 200MA
12 0 2
ZW1!, D Long
WHEAT | Nudging above 200MA
Is inflation starting to feed through to softs!?!
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO ZC1!, D, Long , 2 days ago
ZC1!: CORN | Nudging above 200MA
13 0 2
ZC1!, D Long
CORN | Nudging above 200MA
A double bottom to launch from!?!
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO GBPUSD, D, Long , 3 days ago
GBPUSD: Positioning | Sterling's Crowded Shorts
38 0 5
GBPUSD, D Long
Positioning | Sterling's Crowded Shorts
Non-commercial short positions.
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO GBPUSD, D, Long , 3 days ago
GBPUSD: Sterling Positioning | Ready to unwind?
22 0 4
GBPUSD, D Long
Sterling Positioning | Ready to unwind?
The positioning situation is a formula for a large unwind if May's speech sufficiently moves the needle on sentiment.
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO GBPUSD, D, 3 days ago
GBPUSD: GBP > 4 Standard Deviations
31 0 5
GBPUSD, D
GBP > 4 Standard Deviations
We've witnessed an outsized move on May's speech.
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO JCJ, D, 10 days ago
JCJ: Long Correlation into Trumponomics |JCJ Index
3 0 3
JCJ, D
Long Correlation into Trumponomics |JCJ Index
Dispersion is at extreme levels whilst equity vol is still rather low. A correlation trade into the inauguration will likely perform across all potential economic outcomes.
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO TY1!, W, 11 days ago
TY1!: Positioning | Net Non-Commercial US 10y T-Notes
8 0 4
TY1!, W
Positioning | Net Non-Commercial US 10y T-Notes
At extreme levels, however, the data doesn't look correct... I'm certain it is the most extreme since 2005!
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO EURUSD, D, 12 days ago
EURUSD: EUR vs EEM Intermarket
21 0 4
EURUSD, D
EUR vs EEM Intermarket
This looks particularly bearish for EM, unless the dollar tops this month!
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO AYT, D, 12 days ago
AYT: ASIAN EM FX vs EEM
4 0 1
AYT, D
ASIAN EM FX vs EEM
A divergence to watch as we attempt to see whether the January effect causes a top or bottom in the dollar.
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO AYT, D, 12 days ago
AYT: EURUSD vs ASIAN EM FX
2 0 2
AYT, D
EURUSD vs ASIAN EM FX
More in intermarket 101.
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO EEM/SPY, W, 13 days ago
EEM/SPY: EEM/SPY vs EUR Intermarket
19 0 4
EEM/SPY, W
EEM/SPY vs EUR Intermarket
There's a decent correlation between EM currencies and the Euro. Whilst EM equities take a cue from their currencies. Hence, this chart might appear unrelated at first, but the EEM/SPY ratio might yield clues on the euro...
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO US30Y-US05Y, D, 13 days ago
US30Y-US05Y: US5y30y vs EUR
4 0 4
US30Y-US05Y, D
US5y30y vs EUR
Quite an interesting relationship!
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO HG1!/GC1!, D, 14 days ago
HG1!/GC1!: Copper/Gold vs US10Y
20 1 4
HG1!/GC1!, D
Copper/Gold vs US10Y
The same again on separate axes!
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO HG1!/GC1!, D, 14 days ago
HG1!/GC1!: Copper/Gold vs US10Y Normalised
16 0 4
HG1!/GC1!, D
Copper/Gold vs US10Y Normalised
Today in unusual inter-market relationships we have Copper/Gold vs the US10Y. I need to think about this more to grasp its claims upon reason, if indeed there are any!
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