Vol has a crush on Trump, or at least that's a fair deduction of the current narrative around supply-side economics & fiscal expansion Trump's policy - presumed successful - entails.
Trump speaks on the 20th of January, which coincides with the magical month where major currency markets often top or bottom.
MACD crossover underway in USDMXN... Given the magnitude of the move in the Peso after Trump's election, it's reasonable to assume that any reaction to a Fed hike should be lesser vis other EM currencies given there's value here in Peso.
In an unmistakeable correlation, a higher short end of the curve means gold is relatively less attractive to own. This argument has strong claims on both reason and evidence... Hence, with a hikepending, watch for gold lower.
Using the rule of 16 and the 1/3 trading days time frame, the following translations should be committed to memory:
VIX of 16 – 1/3 of the time the SPX will have a daily change of at least 1%
VIX of 32 – 1/3 of the time the SPX will have a daily change of at least 2%
VIX of 48 – 1/3 of the time the SPX will have a ...