PrometheusAM

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About me The Prometheus Global Macro Fund CIO; politically minded, freethinker, reader, writer, behavioralist, stoic
Joined Australia PrometheusAM www.prometheus-am.com
The Prometheus Global Macro Fund CIO; politically minded, freethinker, humanist, strategist, reader, writer, behavioralist, stoic, rugby player & Wallaby fan. PREMO SOCIAL: https://premosocial.com/PrometheusMacro BLOG: www.reflexivemacro.com
Markets Allocation
39 % commodities 34 % forex 7 % stocks 20 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
HG1! 14% | 21 GC1! 9% | 13 GBPUSD 5% | 8 USDJPY 4% | 7
VIX: VIX vs GVZ Spread.
59 0 4
VIX, D
VIX vs GVZ Spread.

Put this together simply to visualise S&P realised vol against gold vol, it seems gold tends to realise slightly more, at least in the present regime.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO GC1!, D,
GC1!: VOLATILITY | Gold Vol vs Implied
36 1 8
GC1!, D
VOLATILITY | Gold Vol vs Implied

Historical Vol is red, Implied Vol is orange.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO HG1!/GC1!, D,
HG1!/GC1!: INTERMARKET | Copper / Gold vs US10Y
59 0 10
HG1!/GC1!, D
INTERMARKET | Copper / Gold vs US10Y

Normalised charts give a lot richer insight into intermarket relationships than do the double Y-axes charts, as they don't auto-calibrate for the ratio of price moves between two assets and by doing so, don't show faux-correlations. In the case of the copper gold ratio and the 10 year, this is certainly clear in the current regime.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO SP1!, M,
SP1!: TECHNICALS | Cause for Caution in S&P500 Futures
22 0 9
SP1!, M
TECHNICALS | Cause for Caution in S&P500 Futures

A potentially looming correction in the S&P 500 Futures on a timing model's basis... I won't short, but I will potentially cover.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO SI1!, D, Short ,
SI1!: TECHNICALS | Silver Breaking Down?
88 0 6
SI1!, D Short
TECHNICALS | Silver Breaking Down?

After an improbable 13 down day streak, Silver is looking certain to break support. Originally GDX was leading the metals down, now the rest of the metals complex appear to be "catching down" as @mark_dow highlights. I have been short for some time as I prefer to sell highs when bearishly inclined, nevertheless, this could suggest a further extension... Which ...

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO SI1!, 240,
SI1!: TECHNICALS | A Retrospective Look at Silver & Price Target
52 0 4
SI1!, 240
TECHNICALS | A Retrospective Look at Silver & Price Target

I'm short from ~$17.96 and looking for an ideal exit or price target.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO CL1!, D,
CL1!: VOLATILITY | Crude Model Signals Big Move
68 1 4
CL1!, D
VOLATILITY | Crude Model Signals Big Move

As history has shown, our vol model signalled just before the outsized move.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO USDJPY, 120, Long ,
USDJPY: TECHNICALS | USDJPY Breaking-Out!?!
48 0 5
USDJPY, 120 Long
TECHNICALS | USDJPY Breaking-Out!?!

Intraday the level looks like a reasonable entry...

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO HG1!, W,
HG1!: TECHNICALS | Copper's Weekly MACD Rolling Over
33 0 4
HG1!, W
TECHNICALS | Copper's Weekly MACD Rolling Over

A few factors looking very bearish here!

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO HG1!, 240, Short ,
HG1!: TECHNICALS | Copper Support at Risk
45 0 3
HG1!, 240 Short
TECHNICALS | Copper Support at Risk

The whole metals complex looks to be rolling over, the false break-out and falling momentum are rather bearish signs.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO GC1!, D, Short ,
GC1!: INTERMARKET | US05Y vs GC1!
55 0 3
GC1!, D Short
INTERMARKET | US05Y vs GC1!

As real rates rise, the probability of gold having topped increases significantly

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO EEM, D, Short ,
EEM: TECHNICALS | EEM False Break
39 1 5
EEM, D Short
TECHNICALS | EEM False Break

Emerging Markets has made a false break as the Trump train reversed, but as DXY has found support, it seems most likely this is an ideal entry to play EM back towards the middle of its range!

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO PL1!, D, Long ,
PL1!: TECHNICALS | Platinum Advances
27 0 7
PL1!, D Long
TECHNICALS | Platinum Advances

Platinum has roared through resistance at the edge of its recent distribution (as observed in the distribution on the left axis). Some of the classicists might call it an inverse head and shoulders. Whatever the pattern interpretation, it looks particularly bullish!

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO HG1!, D, Short ,
HG1!: INTERMARKET | Copper Suggests Short CAT
36 2 4
HG1!, D Short
INTERMARKET | Copper Suggests Short CAT

The normalised chart of Copper (white) vs CAT (orange) would indicate a CAT short is a reasonable equity trade here...

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO HG1!, 240, Short ,
HG1!: TECHNICALS | Copper's Up-Trend Broken
33 3 5
HG1!, 240 Short
TECHNICALS | Copper's Up-Trend Broken

Whilst diagonal trendlines are geometrically certain to break, they are also rather difficult to trade, looking very obvious ex-post, but hard to pull the trigger on ex-ante. In this case, I am inclined to take the signal given I have traded the vicissitudes of Copper quite well, particularly in the past 6 months.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO BATS, D, Long ,
BATS: TECHNICALS | BATS Break-Out
22 0 6
BATS, D Long
TECHNICALS | BATS Break-Out

British American Tobacco looks set to break-out. This is one of my favourite stocks to own because I doubt humans will stop partaking in such guilty pleasures!

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO CHFJPY, D, Short ,
CHFJPY: TECHNICALS | CHFJPY
17 0 6
CHFJPY, D Short
TECHNICALS | CHFJPY

... Breaking-down through resistance.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO GC1!, D,
GC1!: INTERMARKET | Gold vs Treasuries Divergence
64 0 7
GC1!, D
INTERMARKET | Gold vs Treasuries Divergence

Worth keeping an eye on here to see whether the divergence yields some timing insight here into gold.

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