PrometheusAM

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About me The Prometheus Global Macro Fund CIO; politically minded, freethinker, reader, writer, behavioralist, stoic
Joined Australia PrometheusAM
The Prometheus Global Macro Fund CIO; politically minded, freethinker, humanist, strategist, reader, writer, behavioralist, stoic, rugby player & Wallaby fan... BLOG: www.reflexivemacro.com SITE: www.prometheus-am.com
Markets Allocation
38 % commodities 35 % forex 7 % stocks 20 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
HG1! 14% | 20 GC1! 8% | 12 GBPUSD 5% | 8 USDJPY 5% | 7
PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO SI1!, D, Short ,
SI1!: TECHNICALS | Silver Breaking Down?
72 0 6
SI1!, D Short
TECHNICALS | Silver Breaking Down?

After an improbable 13 down day streak, Silver is looking certain to break support. Originally GDX was leading the metals down, now the rest of the metals complex appear to be "catching down" as @mark_dow highlights. I have been short for some time as I prefer to sell highs when bearishly inclined, nevertheless, this could suggest a further extension... Which ...

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO SI1!, 240,
SI1!: TECHNICALS | A Retrospective Look at Silver & Price Target
41 0 4
SI1!, 240
TECHNICALS | A Retrospective Look at Silver & Price Target

I'm short from ~$17.96 and looking for an ideal exit or price target.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO CL1!, D,
CL1!: VOLATILITY | Crude Model Signals Big Move
65 1 4
CL1!, D
VOLATILITY | Crude Model Signals Big Move

As history has shown, our vol model signalled just before the outsized move.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO USDJPY, 120, Long ,
USDJPY: TECHNICALS | USDJPY Breaking-Out!?!
46 0 5
USDJPY, 120 Long
TECHNICALS | USDJPY Breaking-Out!?!

Intraday the level looks like a reasonable entry...

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO HG1!, W,
HG1!: TECHNICALS | Copper's Weekly MACD Rolling Over
29 0 4
HG1!, W
TECHNICALS | Copper's Weekly MACD Rolling Over

A few factors looking very bearish here!

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO HG1!, 240, Short ,
HG1!: TECHNICALS | Copper Support at Risk
43 0 3
HG1!, 240 Short
TECHNICALS | Copper Support at Risk

The whole metals complex looks to be rolling over, the false break-out and falling momentum are rather bearish signs.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO GC1!, D, Short ,
GC1!: INTERMARKET | US05Y vs GC1!
50 0 3
GC1!, D Short
INTERMARKET | US05Y vs GC1!

As real rates rise, the probability of gold having topped increases significantly

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO EEM, D, Short ,
EEM: TECHNICALS | EEM False Break
37 1 5
EEM, D Short
TECHNICALS | EEM False Break

Emerging Markets has made a false break as the Trump train reversed, but as DXY has found support, it seems most likely this is an ideal entry to play EM back towards the middle of its range!

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO PL1!, D, Long ,
PL1!: TECHNICALS | Platinum Advances
26 0 7
PL1!, D Long
TECHNICALS | Platinum Advances

Platinum has roared through resistance at the edge of its recent distribution (as observed in the distribution on the left axis). Some of the classicists might call it an inverse head and shoulders. Whatever the pattern interpretation, it looks particularly bullish!

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO HG1!, D, Short ,
HG1!: INTERMARKET | Copper Suggests Short CAT
31 2 4
HG1!, D Short
INTERMARKET | Copper Suggests Short CAT

The normalised chart of Copper (white) vs CAT (orange) would indicate a CAT short is a reasonable equity trade here...

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO HG1!, 240, Short ,
HG1!: TECHNICALS | Copper's Up-Trend Broken
31 3 5
HG1!, 240 Short
TECHNICALS | Copper's Up-Trend Broken

Whilst diagonal trendlines are geometrically certain to break, they are also rather difficult to trade, looking very obvious ex-post, but hard to pull the trigger on ex-ante. In this case, I am inclined to take the signal given I have traded the vicissitudes of Copper quite well, particularly in the past 6 months.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO BATS, D, Long ,
BATS: TECHNICALS | BATS Break-Out
20 0 6
BATS, D Long
TECHNICALS | BATS Break-Out

British American Tobacco looks set to break-out. This is one of my favourite stocks to own because I doubt humans will stop partaking in such guilty pleasures!

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO CHFJPY, D, Short ,
CHFJPY: TECHNICALS | CHFJPY
17 0 6
CHFJPY, D Short
TECHNICALS | CHFJPY

... Breaking-down through resistance.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO GC1!, D,
GC1!: INTERMARKET | Gold vs Treasuries Divergence
61 0 7
GC1!, D
INTERMARKET | Gold vs Treasuries Divergence

Worth keeping an eye on here to see whether the divergence yields some timing insight here into gold.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO GBPJPY, D, Long ,
GBPJPY: TECHNICALS | GBPJPY Coiling
38 0 4
GBPJPY, D Long
TECHNICALS | GBPJPY Coiling

A small-long here looks like a reasonable technically speaking... Breakouts in JPY often have one big counter-thrust before they advance so a wide stop might be necessary.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO EEM, D, Long ,
EEM: TECHNICALS | EEM Breaking-Out
31 0 3
EEM, D Long
TECHNICALS | EEM Breaking-Out

EEM looks to be breaking-out beyond technical resistance and through the top of the value area as indicated by the distribution on the left axis.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PRO SI1!, D,
SI1!: VOLATILITY MODEL | Silver
38 0 2
SI1!, D
VOLATILITY MODEL | Silver

Similar to gold, silver is a great market to be long vol, as evidenced by the signals here.

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