PrometheusAM

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About me The Prometheus Global Macro Fund CIO; politically minded, freethinker, reader, writer, behavioralist, stoic. A multidisciplinary behavioural approach to global macro trading. Focusing on currencies, commodities, rates, L/S single stocks and their vol
Joined Australia PrometheusAM
The Prometheus Global Macro Fund CIO; politically minded, freethinker, humanist, strategist, reader, writer, behavioralist, stoic, rugby player & Wallaby fan. PREMO SOCIAL: https://premosocial.com/PrometheusMacro BLOG: www.reflexivemacro.com
Markets Allocation
38 % commodities 33 % forex 7 % stocks 23 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
HG1! 15% | 22 GC1! 8% | 13 GBPUSD 5% | 8 USDJPY 4% | 7
23 0 4
148APPS/APPS_COUNT, 1D
FUNDAMENTAL DATA | Apple vs Count of Active Apps by Month (Log)

I thought this was interesting data, so I thought I'd share for future reference. Particularly seeing as there seems to be a slowdown in the growth rate of active apps.

42 0 1
HG1!-HG2!, 1W
COMMODITY CURVES | Copper Curve vis Copper Continuous

This is the HG1!-HG2! with the continuous copper front month overlaid in white. Just playing with the +/- spread charts and curves to get better at this platform.

14 0 2
SG1!-SU1!, 1W
HISTORICAL SPREAD | Growth vis Value

Green means growth is outperforming, red means value is outperforming...

87 0 5
VIX, D
VIX vs GVZ Spread.

Put this together simply to visualise S&P realised vol against gold vol, it seems gold tends to realise slightly more, at least in the present regime.

45 1 8
GC1!, D
VOLATILITY | Gold Vol vs Implied

Historical Vol is red, Implied Vol is orange.

86 0 11
HG1!/GC1!, D
INTERMARKET | Copper / Gold vs US10Y

Normalised charts give a lot richer insight into intermarket relationships than do the double Y-axes charts, as they don't auto-calibrate for the ratio of price moves between two assets and by doing so, don't show faux-correlations. In the case of the copper gold ratio and the 10 year, this is certainly clear in the current regime.

27 0 10
SP1!, M
TECHNICALS | Cause for Caution in S&P500 Futures

A potentially looming correction in the S&P 500 Futures on a timing model's basis... I won't short, but I will potentially cover.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM SI1!, D, Short ,
89 0 7
SI1!, D Short
TECHNICALS | Silver Breaking Down?

After an improbable 13 down day streak, Silver is looking certain to break support. Originally GDX was leading the metals down, now the rest of the metals complex appear to be "catching down" as @mark_dow highlights. I have been short for some time as I prefer to sell highs when bearishly inclined, nevertheless, this could suggest a further extension... Which ...

59 0 5
SI1!, 240
TECHNICALS | A Retrospective Look at Silver & Price Target

I'm short from ~$17.96 and looking for an ideal exit or price target.

70 1 5
CL1!, D
VOLATILITY | Crude Model Signals Big Move

As history has shown, our vol model signalled just before the outsized move.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM USDJPY, 120, Long ,
50 0 6
USDJPY, 120 Long
TECHNICALS | USDJPY Breaking-Out!?!

Intraday the level looks like a reasonable entry...

38 0 5
HG1!, W
TECHNICALS | Copper's Weekly MACD Rolling Over

A few factors looking very bearish here!

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM HG1!, 240, Short ,
46 0 3
HG1!, 240 Short
TECHNICALS | Copper Support at Risk

The whole metals complex looks to be rolling over, the false break-out and falling momentum are rather bearish signs.

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM GC1!, D, Short ,
61 0 3
GC1!, D Short
INTERMARKET | US05Y vs GC1!

As real rates rise, the probability of gold having topped increases significantly

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM EEM, D, Short ,
45 1 5
EEM, D Short
TECHNICALS | EEM False Break

Emerging Markets has made a false break as the Trump train reversed, but as DXY has found support, it seems most likely this is an ideal entry to play EM back towards the middle of its range!

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM PL1!, D, Long ,
32 0 7
PL1!, D Long
TECHNICALS | Platinum Advances

Platinum has roared through resistance at the edge of its recent distribution (as observed in the distribution on the left axis). Some of the classicists might call it an inverse head and shoulders. Whatever the pattern interpretation, it looks particularly bullish!

PrometheusAM PrometheusAM HG1!, D, Short ,
37 2 4
HG1!, D Short
INTERMARKET | Copper Suggests Short CAT

The normalised chart of Copper (white) vs CAT (orange) would indicate a CAT short is a reasonable equity trade here...

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PLNT
PLANET FITNESS INC
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ES1!
S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES
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OSTK
OVERSTOCK.COM INC
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ANDV
ANDEAVOR
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TSLA
TESLA INC
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ETP
ENERGY TRANSFER PARTNERS, L.P. COMMON UNITS REPRESENTING LTD PARTNER INTERESTS
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BATS
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC ORD 25P
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POT
POTASH CORP OF SASK INC
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NAB
NAT. BANK FPO
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ANZ
ANZ BANK FPO
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RIO
RIO TINTO FPO
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FMG
FORTESCUE FPO
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HLF
HERBALIFE NUTRITION LTD
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WYDE
PROSHARES CDS SHORT NORTH AMERICAN HY CREDIT ETF
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FB
FACEBOOK INC
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XAUUSD
Gold/U.S. Dollar
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KGN
KOGAN.COM FPO
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NGG
NATIONAL GRID TRANSCO, PLC NATIONAL GRID PLC (NEW) AMERICAN DEPOSITARY SHARES
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GMA
GENWORTH FPO
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MSFT
MICROSOFT CORP
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TLS
TELSTRA FPO
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WBC
WESTPAC FPO
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CBA
CWLTH BANK FPO
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BHP
BHP BLT FPO
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QBE
QBE INSUR. FPO
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GC1!
GOLD FUTURES
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