About meThe Prometheus Global Macro Fund CIO; politically minded, freethinker, reader, writer, behavioralist, stoic.
A multidisciplinary behavioural approach to global macro trading. Focusing on currencies, commodities, rates, L/S single stocks and their vol
... Are looking a little less extreme than they were before Trump's inauguration, whilst the currency represents great value. I'm inclined to take the under on Trump's doomsayers and this trade is the best way to express that view while collecting carry (presuming realised volatility continues to calm).
A rather logical looking interpretation. There's a reasonable degree of support, whilst we're buying in the lowest percentiles of the last decade. Further, the probability of the downtrend being breached looks increasingly likely. Further, the return distribution of commodities is particularly convex or asymmetric with a long right tail. Thus, we can give the...