Things are getting ugly economically and globally. Nearly everything soured very recently, and notably so. Sentiment is the only remaining silver lining.
Fascinating things are happening left and right.
Goodluck next week gentlemen,
Last Week's Post:
Wild week. Volatility is picking up, $57.25 expected move seems low given that we moved $100 on Monday alone.
No clue what's going to happen next week. Leaning bearish. Bond market seems extended. Stock market has no incentive to invest.
Your money carries you further in heavier risk environments.
Last Week's Post ($58.5 Expected...
Gravity Point at $2911 looks like an objective Long. Short term, this is oversold, 5 days down in a row.
Plan on exiting the long at the Red Box. I could see another shorting opportunity if we got to $3000 again.
Expected move increased by $20 after last week had a 3 standard deviation move down, breaking the trend we had built.
Last major week of earnings...
Welcome to Earnings Season!
Google and Amazon report earnings on the 25th after the market. Both will highly influence Friday's trading session.
Expected Move for the week is $41.25 +/- which is a 25% increase w/w of the expected move so put on your seatbelt.
Netflix missed horribly.
Fed cutting interest rates will be negative for the financials XLF.
Think we're going into a melt up. Powell all but confirmed a rate cut. Last week I mentioned watching Bonds closely, and that played out well.
I've had a long term target from 2017 coming into play here, we'll see what happens and if technicals remain relevant over longer time frames.
Earnings next week can shift the narrative either direction. I think much has...
I'd expect more volatility next week than the $33.75 move the options market is pricing in.
I'm leaning bearish going into next week. Not willing to commit to it unless I see a higher time-frame divergence though.
Leaning bearish because the underlying reason the market was rising was Fed rate cuts, which was a damaged with Friday's uber strong jobs report, it...
$53 expected move. Larger than prior week despite going pretty much nowhere. More interestingly, there's a $35 expected move for Monday (marked in gray)
The $35 Monday move is the result of the G20. We might hit $3,000 next week.
Goodluck next week gentlemen
Leaning slightly bullish due to the weight of the evidence but there are too many binary events coming up in the coming week that could throw off my thesis. Plus we rallied so strongly the last 3 weeks that I wouldn't discount the fact that the market might just consolidate while it waits for the G20 meeting.
Blew through last week's expected move ($41) and had a...
I was wrong on my neutral call last week. Should have been bearish. Mexico tariffs or not, doesn't matter.
Honestly have no clue what's going to happen this week. Had a bunch of mimosa's this morning and don't have the mental energy.
Green box was something I put there weeks ago. Maybe target the gravity point for a bullish bounce.
Best of luck next week gentlemen
Neutral Call. I think the ' h-Pattern ' we have here will provide a nice bump in price but I think selling pressure will keep the market relatively rangebound especially during next week's shortened 4-day week.
Our Standard Deviation trend lines have been working quite well. I believe we have enough data to call them reliable.
I highlighted in a green circle...
Expecting a bit of a relief rally early in the week.
My standard deviation trendline broke the 3rd SD last week, first time since we bottomed. So I recreated it for the new hypothetical downtrend. It's most useful for an established trend and right now I need more weeks of data before I feel confident in this.
$55.5 expected move is large.
Busy chart, forgive...
Stochastic getting stretched. Also think I spot a hidden bullish divergence here. Basically, price is more bullish than the indicator would suggest.
Lastly, a pattern coined "Kudzu" by my partner @GGhusa could play out for an exhaustion move to the upside.