Bullish call for next week. Downside action last 2 weeks has been too orderly.
Bears aren't taking control.
There's also quantitative historical evidence of positive drift leading into elections.
Best of luck next week everyone.
Looking for an indecisive week with technical significance within the red box I've drawn.
Fall is in full swing. Happy Columbus Day everybody.
Small Caps (IWM) & Transports (IYT) look bullish on higher timeframes which is a bullish leading indicator.
Semiconductors (SMH) are outperforming Nasdaq (QQQ) which is another bullish leading indicator.
Best of luck...
MACD indicator breaking out before price.
The PMO also trending up successively.
Interesting Small Caps Strength... IWM
Market history of cycles suggests small caps perform best in the early innings of a new bull market.
Anticipating a choppy week next week. No call.
How excellent are these Expected Moves? Last week's post was spot on.
Correlations are out of sync.
Huge divergences: QQQ vs. IWM
Is volatility going to come alive?
I'm noticing a lot of Head & Shoulders setups.
How efficient is the Expected Move?
Next week has a Fed announcement and Major economic news.
Volatility fell along with the market in a bizarre week of trade.
Volume dropping on stocks selling off.
Softbank continues to conduct itself in a recalcitrant manner, as does the insidious CCP.
Best of luck next week,
Neutral Call, 4-day trading week with a huge expansion of Expected Move from last week's $62.
Last Week: $62 EM / 5 Days = $12.5/day --> Next Week: $107.75 EM / 4 Days = $27/day
Volatility is like toothpaste; Once it's out of the tube it's hard to put it back in.
The market is seeing a ton of risk in the volatility futures 47 days out for some reason....
The S&P 500 continues to grind higher, notching a string of all-time highs,
and seeing the rally since March foster an "official" bull market.
The pandemic has sped up key structural trends and triggered substantial
market swings, precipitating an urgent need to rethink strategic asset allocations.
Among the big changes: We favor reduced exposure to nominal...
Combination chart of several different Breadth metrics.
Multiple timeframes are used to smooth out false-signals.
$MMTH - % Above 200 Day MA
$MMOF - % Above 150 Day MA
$MMOH - % Above 100 Day MA
$MMFI - % Above 50 Day MA
A favorite ratio of mine has reached the low end of its range.
The sentiment ratio which illustrates complacency and suggests a contrarian stance is warranted.
Like all contrarian metrics, betting on mean reversion typically comes to fruition eventually, but tells you nothing about when that will occur.
That being said, I try to be as 'timely' as possible...
SPX Next week expected move = $64.
A very strange week last week. Nasdaq mega-caps rotated into Small-cap value.
This is due to a short squeeze in the Most-shorted index, not a cyclical rebound.
Seeing $VVIX upward movement this week alongside the $SPY. This is a huge Divergence .
I said keep a lookout for divergences. This week was full of 'em.