Scenario 1 : The price will retrace as long as it bounced back from the Resistance Level created by the upper line of the trend channel (black). However, the 4h interval is not over so the candlestick is not fully created yet. The end of the price increase may be confirmed by another crossover registered by the MACD or Stochastic in the near future.
Scenario 2 :...
The trend remains bearish for now but it`s possible to see a retrace towards the Resistance Level of 53.25 with the condition that the price will cross the Pivot Level.
But if the price will bounce back from the Pivot Level, the main scenario remains the one according to which the target price is the Support Level of 52$/barrel.
Possible rebound after the price has reached the Fibonacci level which is very close as a value with the 20 days Moving Average.
If the fast line of Stochastic will cross the slow one, it can be considered as a confirmation of this scenario.
All eyes on the Powell`s speech tonight!
Resistance Levels : 1.1500, 1.1405, 1.1280
Pivot Level : 1.1100
Support Levels : 1.1100, 1.1025, 1.0850
a) long positions above 1.1100 with targets at 1.1280 & 1.1405 in extension.
b) below 1.1100 look for further downside with 1.1025 & 1.0850 as targets.