First off this is a short term view. How accurate it is could get demolished by US retail sales or Greek news etc. I keep hearing the mention of a Head n Shoulders pattern. First off, it never followed through to the neckline. Could it still be in play? Of course, charts are rarely perfect. Second, there could easily be a channel in place. They are broken and...
The Swissy is keeping its form as an almost perfect inversion of the Euro. Following the same consolidation pattern after hitting highs at 1.020, the CHF retreated. The dollar index is still below resistance 92.50 sitting around 92.30. My take is the dollar is going to need a push to break higher. Data over the next 2 days should do the trick if better than expected.
Euro has been following a triangle pattern. Without major data for a push, until tomorrow, it could continue to consolidate into the Court ruling or US retail sales data. Currently watching for the break lower to support at 1.1750 area or a bounce back to 1.1850 around triangle resistance.
Good data just out. Weak movement. Possible hangover from FOMC and packed up for the holidays. The pair may continue a consolidation while grinding slowly lower, spike down when the Fed raises rates and then bounce to break its downtrend. The approach to previous lows is slowing down, displaying caution in the price action but one more drop is not out of the cards...
If there is a push up, which I have a small long position in, I'll be looking to re-enter a short at channel resistance. I'll be watching price action closely just in case of the whiplash we've experienced recently.
Euro was dropping like a brick but starting slowing down around the 1.2375 area. It just kept making lower lows but slowly, so I dropped down to a 1min to see the price action. The chart pretty much explains my thoughts. I did not base the trade on just one aspect, but the whole picture. My target was just to pick up 15-20 pips so it worked out.
Watching the Yen. It's hanging in just above the 61.8 and psych level 119.00. The previous trendline comes in around 117.20 which would be a complete pullback to past swing low support. I think this could be a reasonable expectation leading into some consolidation before the dollar continues higher.
I would prefer to see a move above the broken midline before...
Buying looks like the right direction, but not jumping in until after the RBNZ meets today. Kind of expecting a pullback to test lower channel support. I'll be watching for a bounce to go long.
A break below could see new lows headed towards the 1.618 (0.7510) which is also a previous weekly/monthly support area.
After bouncing off the 1.618 extension yesterday, a higher euro may be in the works. It will be interesting to see if channel resistance can contain the pair or if we're heading into some consolidation until more data decides a clear direction. RSI also shows divergence which I never put much thought into, but it's there for those that do.