This is not an easy setup despite a clear picture. Post breakout pullbacks are S/L triggers, so I will wait to see a further break up, and then a pullback. Here I will try a second option long entry.
- NZD inflation figures (Wed)
In the past couple of moths the euro was breaking to the south. However USD is getting dovish tones from Fed and the economy. This current situation is way too 50-50% for me to take part.
Risk event: Wed, EU CPI data -> if softer, euro will suffer
- wait for the direction of the breakout
- if clear fake out signal appears -> trade it
- otherwise, wait...
Not trading this one, but LYFT IPO recalls memories of Facebook going public. Same huge hype, multiple times oversubscription, retail traders jumping in on first day of trading and then getting f*****d.
I have a suspicion Lyft will go even lover from this $60 level. Good luck.
-1.1290 is strong resistance (H4 200EMA)
-Cup & handle formation + bottoming out
- ECB press conference -> most of the dovish comments already priced in
-US data deteriorated, today's CPI data key -> if inflation is weaker EURUSD break
MyFxbook community outlook
- EURUSD 65% short -> bullish move more probable
-HUN eco data is continuously beating expectations, inflation above MNB expectation (3.8%) -> MNB reluctant to raise rates, still dovish -> no real interest on HUF
-Clear resistance at D1 61.8% Fib level
ZAR had a strong rally supported by fundamental news. I expect to see some profit taking, and change in positioning.
- 20 EMA was broken on 2h with a backtest
- 38.2 Fib retracement is a clear T/P zone
Myfxbook positioning: 72% of retail traders are long (no deal Brexit still can happen legally)
Taking a speculative short, that really shitty Brexit outcome or Parliamentary breakdown can happen in Britain.
-EU: eco slowdown continues, underpinned by ECB
-NOR: inflation picking up, central bank will further hike this year -> carry trade
-NOK gained even under risk-off sentiment
-CitiBank Eco Surprise Index (1mo) differential: -53.9 vs +53.6 in favor of NOK
- H4 hammer candle -> $ bulls running out of steam
- There was no retest of the H4 breakout
-expecting to see a quick T/P or S/L trigger on this trade.
-key risk event in 3 days: NFP
- Hun core inflation above MNB target -> rate increase probably in March
- wage growth steadily above 10%
- GDP growth above expectation, 5% yoy
The eco picture resembles scenario the Czech case from 2017 where the central bank started raising rates (wage pressure, inflation, housing prices) and the korona strengthened 6-7%.
- 61.8 Fib level T/P zone for EURSEK buyers
- Enter short, S/L relatively tight
- 10.35 breakout level is the target
- Scale out on H4 around 10.40 and see if it goes further south
- eco data clearly on the soft side (fear of technical recession becoming reality)
- low int. rate environment - hurting EU financial sector
- wage growth pressing company margins
- weekly 20 & 200 MA confluence was a strong resistance -> reason to close long positions
- broad channel pointing lower -> price below 10.000 level is on the table
-key eco indicators further deteriorating (Ger factory orders, PMI, etc)
-no brexit deal -> EU and GB both will suffer
- daily 200MA reached
- fake out candle -> indication of bulls getting tired
- took a short from 1.1390 based on H4
- target 61.8 Fib retracement (1.1290)
- if risk sentiment improves, stocks move higher, CHF...