NOK got undervalued due to the OIL price decline
Norges Bank interest rate: 1.5% vs ECB 0% -> carry favors NOK
Inflation is also higher in Norway
I went short on technical + fundamental factors coinciding.
- German industrial production declining (-1.8%)
- IFO business climate continuous decline from 105 to below 97 points in a year
- ECB program and rate cut insufficient support for economy
- Daily double top formation
- 38.2 Fib level as TP1
- Enter trade with SL above recent high
Gold reached the weekyl support levels (200 & 20 MA). Technically a pullback long and a cuphandle breakout confluence appeared on the charts.
Fundamentally: USD weakening is an additional factor for gold bulls.
This is not an easy setup despite a clear picture. Post breakout pullbacks are S/L triggers, so I will wait to see a further break up, and then a pullback. Here I will try a second option long entry.
- NZD inflation figures (Wed)
In the past couple of moths the euro was breaking to the south. However USD is getting dovish tones from Fed and the economy. This current situation is way too 50-50% for me to take part.
Risk event : Wed, EU CPI data -> if softer, euro will suffer
- wait for the direction of the breakout
- if clear fake out signal appears -> trade it
Not trading this one, but LYFT IPO recalls memories of Facebook going public. Same huge hype, multiple times oversubscription, retail traders jumping in on first day of trading and then getting f*****d.
I have a suspicion Lyft will go even lover from this $60 level. Good luck.
-1.1290 is strong resistance (H4 200EMA)
-Cup & handle formation + bottoming out
- ECB press conference -> most of the dovish comments already priced in
-US data deteriorated, today's CPI data key -> if inflation is weaker EURUSD break
MyFxbook community outlook
- EURUSD 65% short -> bullish move more probable
-HUN eco data is continuously beating expectations, inflation above MNB expectation (3.8%) -> MNB reluctant to raise rates, still dovish -> no real interest on HUF
-Clear resistance at D1 61.8% Fib level