RodCasilli

11:38

RodCasilli

It's nice when a projection comes together. Last week, our outlook suggested that we could see rates breakout, which would likely lead to broader stock index futures weakness. We got it half-right. Rates did breakout, but the rate rise ended up looking more like a head fake, so the selling was contained, with Friday even seeing a strong rebound. This week...

11:48

RodCasilli

You may have heard the adage, make hay while the sun shines. In market terms, we might translate this to ... make (the most) money when conditions are favorable for your strategy. The recent increased volatility yesterday, and last Monday 9/20, also increase the probability that range days will follow. In this video, I take a look at a VWAP Bands strategy...

10:17

RodCasilli Updated 

Rates look poised for another attempt at a breakout. Can TINA remain our favorite gal if the 10Y gets above 1.5? Crude looks good, while the Gold blemish continues. Fed speak after the FOMC with Yellen & Powell testimony this week. The debt ceiling and an infrastructure bill are on tap for Congress. BTC & ETH are holding up, off the lows from last week.

04:22

RodCasilli

Hey, what time is it? I get a good amount of questions about session times for the stock index futures markets that I trade and the volume indicators I use. I gotcha covered in this video. Essentially, just apply the indicators and change the time to your local, and you're set. Easy peasy.

07:51

RodCasilli

Holy sell-off Batman. Today we finally had some volatility, and a 2-3% down day in the stock indices. This range expansion seems like a perfect day to come back with another lesson on market tendencies and using ATR to calculate flush zones. What's a flush zone you ask? It's where the weak hands get flushed. For this lesson, I'm using prior session lows as...

10:34

RodCasilli Updated 

Yoooo Speculators - let's look at some levels in the futures stock indices following a telegraphed week of selling into last Friday's quad witching. Overall, the markets have cooperated with our most recent analysis that suggested shorts in the NQ and ZB. Now, I'm gonna go out on a pretty firm limb (you know, since markets never go down), and say that we're...

06:01

RodCasilli Updated 

A great feature of TradingView is the ability to walk-forward price to see the outcome of our analysis. In this video, I revisit a short idea in the Nasdaq 100 Futures Contract and look at potential support levels now that a minor pullback is underway. I also highlight a new short position in the 30Y Bond (ZB1!). I misspoke when pulling up the interest rate...

10:52

RodCasilli

Heya Speculators - it's time for another look at the stock index futures levels heading into the trading week. To start, you may want to check out the chart of the S&P (es1!) on a 4H chart. Do you notice a pattern there? It's quadwitching this Friday and already it looks like the sellers want to keep the option expiration week dips in the playbook. 5/19, 6/19,...

05:47

RodCasilli

Futures contracts are derivatives with expiration dates like options. The stock indices expire quarterly on the last month of each quarter. In this tutorial, I show how to roll forward or rollover and easily add the new front month contract to a watchlist.

02:10

RodCasilli

In order to connect TradingView to the supported broker Tradovate, you need to authorize a setting on the Tradovate platform. In this video, I show you how while clearing my throat loudly a few times. Note to self - no videos before coffee

05:19

RodCasilli

No April Fools joke here , the first card I pulled off the top of my Trader Tarot Deck (thanks @TradingView) was the KING OF FUTURES. Maybe there is something to this Tarot thing?

RodCasilli Updated 

Everyone can see the Nasdaq 100 is extended. Heck, the index has added nearly 1000 points in only the last few weeks. But despite the price strength, we have a sign/signal that the mighty may be ready for a fall. The 7-Day Average True Range (ATR) of the Nasdaq 100 Futures Market (NQ1!) hit the lowest level of year, and is down over 60% since May 20. I've...

09:02

RodCasilli Updated 

Hey Speculators - Happy Friday - welcome to another video tutorial, and thanks again to the @TradingView Editors for featuring my last post, which I've linked here, and is related to the topic on hand for today. That topic is how, and when, to not fight a trend. I'd suspect many traders are familiar with the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), used to measure...

10:17

RodCasilli Updated 

There are many ways to project price levels when looking at un charted territory (e.g. new highs). Elliot Wave, Gann, fractals, Fibonacci, or a measured move, all are methodologies that can provide levels to watch to predict range expansion when there is no price to reference. In this lesson, I show how to use another approach, utilizing the 7-Day Average True...

07:25

RodCasilli

I got smoked shorting the MNQ today. And it was avoidable. The MNQ1! and the MES1! were flashing warning signs since the Sunday open to NOT fade the move. I stayed off the sell side for the opening 30 minute candle, but then got sucked in at a level. The entry was a violation of one of the Golden Rules of Range Trading - STAY AWAY from Outside Days! In this...

08:20

RodCasilli

The VIX popped and dropped last week making the selling again a very short term event. The S&P ES1! is right back on trend after holding the 55EMA on the daily. Gold GC1! is in balance and crude CL1! continues to look like it wants lower prints. Economic Calendar Week Starting Sun, Aug 22 Monday, August 23 EU Manufacturing & Services PMI 2:15 AM CST US...

04:28

RodCasilli Updated 

The stock indices all broke below the prior sessions lows to make new lows for the week. But I noticed a few signs that made me pick up some micros long (MES, MNQ, KYM, M2K) right before the 5pm EST close. Long MES 4385 Long M2K 2152 Long MYM 34822 Long MNQ 14827 $150 risk per position

07:52

RodCasilli

There's nothing much to see in the stock indices as the trends, or lack thereof (RTY1!), have continued. This week I'll be watching the 10Y rate to see if a retest of the recent lows matters at all to the broader market. When things are slow, it's good to measure just how slow. I like to use the 7-D ATR to gauge volatility and I explain how to do so in this post.