RogueDave

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Joined BaconPDX
Markets Allocation
95 % cryptocurrency 5 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
BTCUSD 38% | 8 COINBASE:ETHUSD 19% | 4 KRAKEN:ETHUSD 9% | 2 XMRXBT 4% | 1
RogueDave RogueDave SPX, M,
SPX: Equities Topping? - Global DOW Index & Wilshire5000 - E-Waves
119 7 3
SPX, M
Equities Topping? - Global DOW Index & Wilshire5000 - E-Waves

This is not my work, just sharing for investors with exposure to Equities & Stock Market Exposure. You can find the originals and others, including daily/intraday very short term "squiggle counts" here: https://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/ Wilshire 5000 Monthly Elliott Wave Chart: ...

RogueDave RogueDave BCHUSD, 60, Long ,
BCHUSD: BCHUSD - Bullish Flag
189 0 1
BCHUSD, 60 Long
BCHUSD - Bullish Flag

Pretty easy to see. Put your chips on the table if you'd like to play. Deep complex issues about profitability for miners are shifting Hashpower from BTC to BCH, BCH is more profitable than BTC currently. http://ztnark.com/bitcoin-fork This is supportive of the price move. BTC has a rival: BCH.

RogueDave RogueDave BTCUSD, 240,
BTCUSD: BTCUSD - BitFinex Driven Breakout - Analysis Article
281 11 2
BTCUSD, 240
BTCUSD - BitFinex Driven Breakout - Analysis Article

If you were watching the BTC break out, and the multiple markets, you undoubtedly watched BitFinex lead the breakout. (I watch 4 markets, BitStamp, Coinbase/GDAX, BitFinex, and Kraken. I watched BitFinex lead this breakout, every other exchange was lagging.) Read this article at Medium.com about how one trader has tracked a Spoofing Trader or group of traders ...

RogueDave RogueDave BTCUSD, 240,
BTCUSD: BTCUSD - The FOMO is so thick, a chainsaw is required to cut it.
539 10 10
BTCUSD, 240
BTCUSD - The FOMO is so thick, a chainsaw is required to cut it.

Stepping back a bit from Elliott Wave Analysis (yeah, I do that too, but there are so many other voices...), the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) radiates all over the BTCUSD charts. What my experience has been, is that the FOMO does not lead to sustainable breakouts. Key word: Sustainable. It is most obvious on the Kraken data feed. It actually traded at an ATH, for a ...

RogueDave RogueDave BTCUSD, 120,
BTCUSD: BTCUSD - Elliott Wave Count -Wave 5 Alternative Count is Dead
531 13 10
BTCUSD, 120
BTCUSD - Elliott Wave Count -Wave 5 Alternative Count is Dead

We are in Wave IV folks, it's not done yet. Here I will document the death of the imposter, the usurper, the Alternative Count has crashed and burned. Some have told a story, but the data exposed them as heretics, liars, fakes and frauds. They profess to offer wave counts, but they do not offer Elliott Wave Counts. For in Elliott Wave Counts, there are guidelines ...

RogueDave RogueDave BTCUSD, 60,
BTCUSD: BTCUSD - Elliott Wave Analysis - BTC Alt.Counts
426 0 9
BTCUSD, 60
BTCUSD - Elliott Wave Analysis - BTC Alt.Counts

Ugh, what a mess... While my preference is that BTC is still in macro-degree Wave IV following the 2980 high I label Wave III, I must at this point give serious consideration to an Alternate Count,(labeled here in Red) that against reasonable Time Duration, and against the Alternation Guideline, that BTC completed Wave IV at the 1840 low. The move up to 2938 was a ...

RogueDave RogueDave ETHUSD, W,
ETHUSD: ETHUSD - Elliott Wave Analysis - Revised Count: Boo Hoo Wave (2)
2146 25 28
ETHUSD, W
ETHUSD - Elliott Wave Analysis - Revised Count: Boo Hoo Wave (2)

With ETH not responding to the recent short term price action in other AltCoins and BTC, I went in search of reason(s) why. Ultimately this lead me to a comprehensive data source with all of ETH's price history. This then led to a full revision of the wave count for ETH. Here's the bad news, The recent high near 400 marked the top of a 5 wave structure completing ...

RogueDave RogueDave BTCUSD, 240,
BTCUSD: BTCUSD - Elliott Wave Analysis - Wave C of IV - Possibilities
819 18 18
BTCUSD, 240
BTCUSD - Elliott Wave Analysis - Wave C of IV - Possibilities

Woohoo, what a ride! Hope everyone is having fun, getting some trades going your way, or staying on the side lines (That's where I am mostly). If the Wave B of IV high at 2938 holds, here are 3 possible scenarios for how Wave C plays out. Surprise, surprise, or not, these scenarios were expressed in a prior Elliott Wave forecast I wrote, back near the beginning ...

RogueDave RogueDave LBCBTC, D, Long ,
LBCBTC: LBRYBTC - Elliott Wave Analysis - Wave 5 Begins
452 6 5
LBCBTC, D Long
LBRYBTC - Elliott Wave Analysis - Wave 5 Begins

An interesting long term hold in the AltCoin space in LBRY, Library Credits. As you can see from the charts below, LBRY launched at a very high ICO point and immediately collapsed. After basing for a long time, it had a small pop, Wave 1, and corrected. More recently, Wave 3 took it to heights not seen since the initial collapse. It has since completed its ...

RogueDave RogueDave ARDRBTC, D, Long ,
ARDRBTC: ARDRBTC - Elliott Wave Analysis - Bounce to B
243 4 8
ARDRBTC, D Long
ARDRBTC - Elliott Wave Analysis - Bounce to B

Ardor - ARDR appears to have found it's footing. After making a large run beginning in April as many AltCoin did, it peaked in late June and proceeded to retrace 78.6% of the advance. The last couple days have broken the descending trend line and ARDR has begun to move upward. On the daily chart, RSI has given an initial buy signal, but MACD has not yet confirmed ...

RogueDave RogueDave BTCUSD, 240,
BTCUSD: BTCUSD - Elliott Wave Analysis - Wave IV Update
967 14 13
BTCUSD, 240
BTCUSD - Elliott Wave Analysis - Wave IV Update

With the recent decline in the BTC price, to the 1830 price level, and falling below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement intraday, but closing very near it, it is possible that wave A of IV has found it's completion. If so, the price will rise in a counter correction mode to retest highs near the Wave III peak at 2980. My guess is somewhere short of 2900, it will find ...

RogueDave RogueDave ETHUSD, 240,
ETHUSD: ETHUSD - Elliott Wave Counts - Wave IV Update
699 13 9
ETHUSD, 240
ETHUSD - Elliott Wave Counts - Wave IV Update

Has ETH reached reached a near term low? The 134 level is near a 78.6% Fibonacci level, a steep and deep decline from its 420 high. The a-b-c-d-e decline to what may mark A of an A-B-C corrective wave may be in place. Potential exists to climb up to a B counter correction level, before resuming a decline to mark its lows at point C of 4. Time will tell. Internal ...

RogueDave RogueDave ETHUSD, 240,
ETHUSD: ETHUSD - Elliott Wave Counts & Forecast - Wave 4 Possibilities
1323 10 12
ETHUSD, 240
ETHUSD - Elliott Wave Counts & Forecast - Wave 4 Possibilities

This chart captures my current analysis for ETH during the remainder of the Wave 4 correction and revises my prior counts. If the trend continues, a dip down to the 200 support area, will mark wave (C) of C of 4 (technically "W" in Elliott Wave terminology because this correction is a combination, and not a simple zig-zag, or flat, or triangle). A healthy climb ...

RogueDave RogueDave BTCUSD, 240,
BTCUSD: BTCUSD Elliott Wave Analysis – Wave IV – How will it play out?
790 13 12
BTCUSD, 240
BTCUSD Elliott Wave Analysis – Wave IV – How will it play out?

In an earlier analysis, I posted 3 scenarios (shallow Barrier Triangle and Flat, and deeper Failing Wedge) that were possible based upon the Alternation Guideline that follows the principle that Wave II and Wave IV (or W2 and W4) alternate form. Since Wave II was a sharp and deep correction, correcting the initial run to 1143, all the way down to 157.50, Wave IV ...

RogueDave RogueDave BTCUSD, D,
BTCUSD: BTCUSD Elliott Wave Analysis - Counts and Forecasts
862 8 15
BTCUSD, D
BTCUSD Elliott Wave Analysis - Counts and Forecasts

Before Wave V can commence, Wave IV must exert it's toll, the dreaded correction. How this correction will play out can take several forms. Since we are early into the TIME aspect of this correction, it is impossible to state how it will develop. As a reminder, the correction after Wave I, took the form of a Zig-Zag, and spanned approximately 1 year, Jan - Dec ...

RogueDave RogueDave ETHUSD, 30,
ETHUSD: ETHUSD Elliott Wave Analysis - Counts & Forecasts
1392 17 14
ETHUSD, 30
ETHUSD Elliott Wave Analysis - Counts & Forecasts

Wave 4 correcting Wave 3 has completed. Onward with Wave 5. Sub-waves will advance and correct as progress continues. Sub-wave (5) of 5 of 1 of 1 of 5 is in process. The correction of (5) of 5 of 1 to mark wave 2 provides an opportunity to add or initiate positions at lower risk for traders and Hodlers who missed the corrective Wave C of Wave 4 low and the motive ...

RogueDave RogueDave ETHUSD, 120, Long ,
ETHUSD: ETHUSD Elliott Wave Counts
325 3 5
ETHUSD, 120 Long
ETHUSD Elliott Wave Counts

Possible Wave C correction completed. Retraced 50% of Wave 3, and corrective Wave A = Wave C.

RogueDave RogueDave BTCUSD, 240,
BTCUSD: Elliott Wave Analysis - Possible BTC Correction Path & Target(s)
498 2 7
BTCUSD, 240
Elliott Wave Analysis - Possible BTC Correction Path & Target(s)

Various Elliot Wave counts have a high probability that Wave III completed just short of the 3000 level. After the completion of a major leg, a correction ensues to retrace a portion of the entire move. The correction can form various patterns, though a Zig-Zag or A-B-C correction is a high probability. Wave A corrected from 2980 to 2121. Wave B countered ...

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