SMP99

SMP99

Charted above is the performance of XLE on both a relative and absolute basis. Looking a both offers some additional perspective on the health of the sector vs. focusing solely on the underlying price of the index. On a relative basis, this sector broke down from a long term trend before it became fully apparent in the price. XLE had well defined support going...

SMP99

Charted above is the monthly US dollar index. Some things to note about the chart: 1) The index is currently sitting right below a downward trend line going back to the 1985 high (white line). It has yet to break this trend on a closing monthly basis. 2) The current level is also sitting on the 38.2% re-tracement of the 2001 to 2008 decline. 3) And finally,...

SMP99

Not sure that much can be inferred from this chart, but I found it quite interesting all the same. Puts the speed and size of the recent move in context (S&P up, Oil down).

SMP99

Indus India Index, the ETF (PIN) for this index is charted above. SIII can also be used to chart underlying index. Also INDL is the 2X ETF designed to track INDL. Recently broke upward trend line which also corresponded with a confirmation of a H&S pattern. Target for H&S pattern completion is approximately the shaded area. This target area also looks to...

SMP99

The charts above show the performance of each sector relative to all nine sectors combined. XLK tech couldn't be included due to having only 8 panes but it was included in determining the sector ratios. Important to keep in mind that these are ratios, all prices could go lower or higher together but what I'm interested in here is purely the relative performance....

SMP99

High Yield corporate bonds are breaking down relative to long dated govt bonds. It appears the break down of this 6 yr wedge help accelerate the losses in HYG during last week while helping TLT add to its gains. The bottom trend line of the wedge has been an important support line for this ratio over past several years. With this break down, it seems possible...

SMP99

The rally in long dated US treasuries over the past 35 years could easily be called the greatest bull market we've seen in modern times. 10 yr rates have been trending down in a near perfect channel for almost 30 years. Calling for the end of this rally has become a popular pastime. Due to the nature being zero bound on rates, the upper trend line will with...

SMP99

Above is a look at the 10 yr Bond prices relative to S&P 500. The purpose isn't to look for an exact top where prices or the ratio trend may reverse but instead to see where we've been in the past and where we are at currently. Breaks in the long term down trend of this ratio have lead to large moves in the SPY, however, determining those breaks in the trend are...

SMP99

Update to chart linked below. In that chart it was noted that HYG had at tendency to bottom at or before SPY during pullbacks. The average since beginning of 2013 was for HYG to bottom three days prior to SPY but occurrences ranged from same day to six days prior. After breaking the rising trend support going back to 2009 the selling in HYG has picked up...

SMP99

Update to previous chart linked below Looking at a moving average of the NYSE New highs minus new lows. My thoughts in the first chart were that observing the prevailing trend of the moving average would give clues to the health of the market. If the prevailing trend of New High-New Lows holds, the current pull back may be short lived. A break here similar to...

SMP99

From my view, we are getting close but are just not yet near what could be a meaningful multi-week or month bottom in crude. With current sentiment and oversold readings we could in the short term see some spectacular multi day or even week long bounces worth playing, however, longer term support for crude could reside at prices about 10-15% lower. The primary...

SMP99

Something I just started looking at, maybe it could add some clues as to whether this recent pullback and sharp rally are a part of a topping process or setting the stage for a new leg higher. The upper indicator is the 10 day MA of the New highs - new lows. I decided to use a ma of the underlying indicator to smooth out some of the spikes and to see if any...

SMP99

The rising wedge I've been watching for several days appears to have a nice clean break to the downside with an hourly close below the rising bottom trend. This break sets up two potential targets to watch for on the downside over the next few days. target 1 - 1942/1947: this area sits just below a .236 retrace and would line up with the potential for a inverse...

SMP99

Getting close to two big targets. 1 - the inverse H&S target of about 197.50 created from the bottom two weeks ago. 2 - the multi-year trend line that we lost on the way down Lots of volatility around this trend on the way down and with the Fed set for Wed, GDP numbers Thurs....could see more of that type of action. Alternatively, during the August low...

SMP99

Despite breaking below the red trend line dating back to 2012, SPY bounced on a weekly basis quite forcefully off what looks to be a more important trend line. In fact in comparing the 2002-2008 bull market to the current, both have very similar structures. The current market has clearly had a much steeper ascent in prices compared to 2007, but both are similar...

SMP99

SPY continues to move towards the target price of 197.50 created from the inverse h&s off the bottom two weeks ago. Reaching this target on mon or tues seems quite likely. Directly above that is the red trend line that extends back to 2012. This line when broken two weeks ago helped to escalate the selling. This trend on a daily closing basis had not been...

SMP99

Last week the descending broadening wedge pattern appears to have broke to the upside with a successful back test of the upper trend line. If that is correct, it would imply a much higher target price of approx 2125 possible over the next 2-3 months. That price also happens to be right around the upper long term trend line and if reached may mark a significant...

SMP99

10-21: SPY looks set t gap up at open based on pre-market, however the area directly above may cause some problems short term. Some level's i'm watching over the next day or two that are marked. - 191.90 represents a .5 retrace of the recent pullback. - 192.33 level provided significant support on the way down, now maybe some resistance. - 194 area has the...