JHQDX Jan Roll was predicted well ahead of this idea, but I used some chartArt to emphasize it's predictive capabilities.
Quants on fintwit still reject my claims.
if Modelling 1-6 months out down to the strike and day wasn't enough.
Or predicting the bottom with a price target.
For April Roll my indicators are telling me the Call is a to heavy to...
Gex is short for Gamma Exposure.
I started tracking gamma exposure over a year ago. In fact I posted an idea with a really good explanation idea of gamma exposure but the idea was banned and I never got around to reposting.
So many private messages asking me to explain GEX, I decided to repost the banned post without the restricted content in it. If you want the...
On March 31 at ~3pm the contracts were rolled to
roll price: 4089.21
short call 4320
long put 3885
short put 3280
For any of you that have not checked out the indicator on their own chart yet, I published the script privately last month and received overwhelming positive feedback.
Get a copy of the script here:
It's not a coincidence that Elon was on twitter having a who wore a golden cross better with the pope.
This idea is using the 200D and 50D golden cross and an Inverted Head & Shoulders and a price target of 300.
Be Warned. TSLA has faked out many large structures and major MA crosses to trap both Bulls and Bears.
I bought weekly OTM puts on TSLA before close on...
This idea is a continuation of this previous structure that has continued to form.
The follow through on that idea could be considered a fluke except it rejected the 1.618 to the pin.
I don't make the 1.618 rules. I just draw the lines.
The shoulder isn't formed completely.
A good chance DXY gets a second wind in the next month or two if CPI heats up...
TLT is a precise instrument.
Weekly rarely leaves a gap behind, and if it did, it was a big move up or down.
It's the most forward looking.
Take for example Jan 1st 2020.
What you will notice is a consolidation at the 200W and a move higher the week after the JHEQX pin.
That move was a clear pivotal forward indication the market was going to crash in Mar...
In a market both pinned up and down,
A trader did furrow his brow.
He juggled his stocks,
And outsmarted the clocks,
As the market danced like a clown.
This idea highlights the pinning / magnetic nature of dealers hedging options.
HEF or Hedged Equity Flows is a term I coined to describe how a large prime bank, JPM, hedges 20+ billion in assets...
I don't really speak my mind very much on trading view or twitter anymore.
Sometimes I don't know what to say, and rather let the charts tell the story.
This chart I created a few weeks ago. I like to bookmark them privately but figured why not just make them public like a tweet.
It's not unreasonable to be bearish these days.
I don't have a very positive outlook for macro or vol events.
One frequent reader I chat with asked me if I could look at the market and what I thought would happen from a purely technical analysis.
I gave him this inverse head & shoulder on Mar 15th.
I was convinced the market would not...
The FED showed its hand and backstopping the banks.
Market is pricing in 25bp and pause for this months FOMC
Here are my targets above on spy:
Mar9 GAP 391.56
200D MA: 393.24
SINCE QE POC: 395.29
20D MA: 401.43
back to 25bp: 407.45
FEB16 GAP: 408.14
FEB2 HIGH: 418.31
AUG 19 TWBB GAP: 422.14
AUG18 TWBB GAP: 426.86
A déjà vu is usually a glitch in the flow.
It happens when they change something.
Oh My God
They cut the Sell Side, it's a trap, get out!
** Short seller margin calls ring **
Oh, That's what they changed.
We're trapped short, there's no way out!
Be calm, give me your crypto key.
They'll be able to track it.
We have no choice
We made it through the weakest of the window periods during JHQTX without a break so things are looking better.
I updated the bearish forecast to now to fit the recent roll of JHQTX.
JHQTX rolled yesterday in what was a very similar occurrence in Aug expiry last year.
There is still an argument to be made here that we could tip down towards JHEQX negative...
At a critical juncture while hanging on a pivot for both 200D and zero gamma.
The 200D regression trend turned up positive as the tail is now at the peak of aug bull rally.
Total S&P 500 gamma is neutral around zero gamma / 4k.
No vol events and no flows from options means lower daily distributions.
- Slow grind up here into CPI.
- Low CPI/PPI Only...
ChatGPT went down world wide at the open of trading Monday causing MSFT to reject a retest of the 200 day moving average.
This could add more structural problems in VOL since hedged equity and option flows are weakest until next week.
My target is 248 today with an extension possible as low as 245.
These AI fumbles are a good sign that AI is still a slave to...
I don't think any more analysis has to be done on this company and its ability to innovate and lead graphics chips.
The latest reach into AI should be recognized as the companies ability to pivot to what is trending.
They met and possible over reached when the demand for Crypto was at its peak.
I did not factor NVDA into my semiconductors, crypto and market...
I started following the USDJPY pair when Japan announced a surprise rate increase on Dec 20th.
I had only seen the market react like that to US rate hikes.
Yields went up while equities and the dollar went down.
Since then, the USDJPY started clawing back higher over the last 2 months with a strong up thrust on Friday.
A strong DXY indicates to me that the...
I'm going to be clearing out some of my half baked ideas.
I don't have a lot of time to write full ideas about them so enjoy the charts and feel free to ask any questions about them if you have any.
I'm going to integrate my TV charts into the website with a daily, weekly, monthly analysis.
website is in my TV profile or find me on twitter.