The great thing about predicting market trends is that it's very easy.
Review my greatest predictions and I will tell you at the bottom of this idea.
One of my very first predictions was based on a 10 year S&P channel based on SPX adjusted for inflation.
The chart just bounced off the median line!
I have been extremely busy the past few weeks and have not been able to post very many updates.
While I missed out on the last bull push higher, I'm back being bearish as inflation continues to soar and bonds continue to get crushed.
Jan 20 was the last time Netflix reported earnings and the stock dropped 25% in the after hours.
There is getting to be a solid case for a significant move lower between now and the end of the month.
The Hang Seng index broke down below March 2020 lows
A Gap in SPY/SPX from Apr5th 2021 is looking to get filled, the same gap when the Overnight RR broke out.
You know.. right...
1.. double bounces on Ichimoku Cloud.
2.. Weekly Tenkan-Sen crossing over Kijun-Sen.
and a 3... Chikou Span crossing over prior price confirming trend.
21D moving average on GEX flatlining
Wheat prices, hope you don't like bread.
Oil prices, hope you like being...
I'm going to breakdown JPM big 20 billion dollar Put Spread Collar Hedge trade early this quarter.
The trade usually gets a lot of attention when they do the roll/reset on the day it expires each quarter.
For the uninitiated, this trade occurs every quarter by JPM as a premium neutral hedge (market crash protection) for a 20B fund.
Furus try to explain the...
covid crash in march 2020
The key takeaway here is that despite SPX bouncing back after each sell off, the vix remains a hair trigger away from causing more damage.
GEX is hovering around gamma zero but every time a move is made higher, an equal move back down follows shortly after.
A gap from Dec 2020 was closed in trading yesterday.
It would seem that asset managers are liquidating assets of companies with large manufacturing operations in Russia.
Magna has 2,500 employees in Russia in 6 facilities.
Russia conflict is likely to add even more supply chain constraints for auto manufacturers.
I really like Magna, should the conflict in...
Russian Ruble tumbling leaving bitcoin as the logical choice to move money for Russians and Russia asset holders.
Bond yields dropping as speculation points to the Fed and ECB postponing rate hikes in the face of a lengthly conflict in Ukraine.
Risk-on is back in the saddle again.
Expect to see consolidation around the 21W EMA as Bitcoin caught a...
Updated Wyckoff Distribution Pattern from last years chart.
I think this week in crypto it will punch down to the SOW - Sign of Weakness.
The weakness is likely to be a result of all the financial sanctions against Russia and their exclusion from SWIFT.
Over the weekend...
My posts keep getting banned for linking to twitter content so I'll keep this brief.
Keep an eye on the vix after open today. Any sustained move up over 40 is likely to cause big moves down > -6%
This is likely where the market could enter negative VEX.
most notable -VEX were the corona crash
and in late 2008
I have not been able to trade/chart much lately but I wanted to make note of where we closed yesterday vs open today.
CPI running hot. almost a perfect setup for a bearish reversal leading into opex next week.
SPX just closed above the ZeroG (gamma flip) in relation to Naive Gamma.
Means dealers should be selling us lower into next week.
Get free Naive Gamma...
If you're new to the stock market like me, you will quickly learn this lesson if you haven't already.
My lesson was a little more violent when VIAC took a nose dive.
I went straight from Euphoria directly to Capitulation. That was fun.
One could argue that Woods has been targeted by Wallstreet...
Last 2 weeks have been bearish through APPL and TSLA earnings. Attention now turns to Amazon earnings (feb2) as they teeter on oversold RSI and below 2yr support. Not regaining this support from bad earnings will likely see this S&P bearish flag breakout to the downside.
Canadians wielding pitchforks and torches, Russia...
Never gonna give you up above 4400,
Never gonna let you down below 4300,
Never gonna run around and desert you unless above 4415
Never gonna make you cry without volume during breakout,
Never gonna say goodbye without closing below 4325
Never gonna tell a lie and hurt you below 4000
A Bearish pennant with plenty of other signals.
Continuation to the downside...
FOMC today at 2pm is likely when bulls and bears come to head to head.
Idea from yesterday I indicated dealers would be low supply.
overnight, dealers bought the dip.
the 4350 and 4400 strike are still heavy put exposure so its likely why futures drifted higher.
using the GEX indicator I created I'm...