Schnauzel

Schnauzel Updated 

With the VIX in the single digit territory, this could very well mark the end of the secular bull market. This will be confirm if and when the 200 weeks MA is perforated.

Schnauzel

In a nutshell, not much time wise. The height of the huge (yuge) flat from 2000 to 2009 is the key (vertical blue line). Projecting that height from the B top, that gives us a target of +/- 2506. A little more than a 100 points. The bull market's (2009 - ...) upper channel will hit that mark on or about March 17. Note that the Feds meet on the 15th. So, short...

Schnauzel Updated 

This is pure conjecture at this point, but it's a valid scenario among others....

Schnauzel Updated 

The trump euphoria has reached its peak. I'm not saying that the apocalypse is coming, but overbought is starting to look and feel like an understatement. (even the weekly Stoch RSI is approaching overbought territory - see SPX : up for a couple a weeks, before the downtrend resumes. The daily is glued to the ceiling) Still short with a stop at 2215, could very...

Schnauzel Updated 

The divergence between stocks and bonds is the key. Stocks can't hold at present level if interest rates, as measured by the 10 years treasury, continue their path to higher grounds. On a short term basis my target is 2.49, which would completely erase the preceding 5th. A bad CPI number (out tomorrow before opening) could certainly do the trick. More on the...

Schnauzel Updated 

With the Dow divergence (the only major index to manage a new high) in full ''flight to safety'' mode there is not much space left for the bulls... Unless you are day trader, one should avoid long position at this point : the risk reward ratio is, well, not good ! As in 40 or less on the upside vs a downside of 200+. A lot of churning is going on and the bond...

Schnauzel Updated 

The fourth wave from Nov 4th's bottom is almost completed. Now what will the upcoming 5th do ? The only guideline available now is that the 3rd is shorter than the 1st. Since the 3rd can't be the shortest (one of the unbreakable Elliott's rules), that entails that the fifth will be shorter than the third. But how much shorter ? The Dow made a new all time high...

Schnauzel Updated 

Not many days left to position for what could be the trade of the year. Whether this will prove to be the start of a bear market (3rd wave) or not (C wave), we're talking about a violent 200 points down move that should test an almost 8 years trend. Short term, we still have to finish the C wave which has completed 1-2-3 so far. The 4th should be more complex...

Schnauzel Updated 

The best part of the upside is behind us. The second wave is almost done, 3 or 4 days left. It should provide ample entry opportunities to setup for the 3rd wave down which should test the secular bull trendline.

Schnauzel Updated 

Whether the first wave from the low is over or not, the second wave is coming soon and targeting one is always a throw of the die. A second wave can go anywhere from stopping in a preceding 4th to fully retrace the preceding movement. So here are the levels to watch : 2123 to 2131 (preceding 4th) 2115 2106 (.618 retracement) 2083 (full retrace) If one...

Schnauzel

Above the red line, yellow line perforated. Mission accomplished. Tomorrow shall be less exciting, and mark a digestion period... On a Clinton win (but not a sweep) the market will rally, completing the first wave of the C. The the second wave will test the red line, which should provide good support.

Schnauzel

While the B wave was more violent than expected, which is often the case with those beast who try very hard to confuse me ;-) , in terms of timing it's well within parameters. To confirm that the C wave is underway : first we have to go back into the 1st wave territory (2115), then go above the falling yellow line which stands around 2123 at the opening today....

Schnauzel

(This is an update from my previous post) With most oscillators now oversold, the stage is set for the last leg of the second wave. This C wave, part of an irregular flat construct, will at minimum erase the preceding B wave, and probably overshoot it. A .618 retracement should provide a reasonable target. If the low is indeed in place, 2160 is the number to...

Schnauzel

With the weekly Stoch RSI in oversold territory, this is my favored SPX wave count. It would be invalidated should the SPX register a new all time high. In a nutshell, 2 to 4 up weeks (or green bars if you prefer), and after that a test of the 8 years trend line. This does not preclude a down opening next week, but we should finish the week with a gain.