This looks really bad now. I thought that we would enter a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern, but Bitcoin's continued weakness let's me fear for a worst-case scenario.
There is still time and we could get lucky for a Wyckoff pattern, but should BTC really go lower, it is likely that we would visit the 12k area.
Many people would then think: Awesome, cheap coins !...
So the bounce idea has been canceled by Powell. Awesome times we live in, where one single individual can dictate the direction of entire markets.
And since BTC is very strongly correlated with the stock market (unfortunately), this means that BTC is just following the general direction of the stock market.
And since the FED appears to be very hawkish, this...
Bitcoin has become really extremely correlated to the stock market, much to my disappointment to be honest.
It is not the inflation hedge as which it was heralded, instead it behaves 100% like a tech stock.
Thus, the monetary policy of the FED will decide the path forward.
If the FED will raise interest rates strongly at the meeting on September 22nd, then we...
It's time to look again at good old XRP, the historically most brutal coin to hold, and it again does confirm its reputation.
The price action of XRP has been really subpar compared to some other coins, that have already seen strong rises, in accordance to the rise of BTC to new all-time highs.
This is of course largely due to the SEC vs Ripple case, and the...
I am by no means an EW expert, in fact, I am often quite skeptical of it.
But sometimes, as with other tools, it proves to be a useful instrument.
What if we have misread BTC's behavior the past years? I was thinking how BTC can make such a weird looking structure and how it could fit into the grand scheme of things.
Maybe an expanded flat could be the answer:...
Hello, it's been a while since I published a chart on TV. It's time again :)
There is one very simple rule or mechanism that has a very big influence on Bitcoin price development.
There are of course the halvings, then there is adoption, but then there is a strong positive correlation with stocks and anti correlation with the Dollar.
So a strong dollar will ...
So I was thinking again, and it might be that my last idea here () was too simplified.
It seems the cycles are getting overproportionally longer.
Also, it seems that the tops are diminishing more than previously thought.
I take all cycles exactly from the previous halving days,...
I thought a bit and found that the cycles are indeed getting longer.
First cycle duration is 367 days from the halving date to the top. Halving date was 28th of November 2012, date of top was Nov 30th 2013.
The second halving was on July 9th 2016, the top on Dec. 17th 2017. Cycle duration thus 567 days.
So: Every cycle is now either 159 days longer than the...
BTCUSD is nearing the extremely important 0.618 and 0.768 Fibonacci resistance levels at 51k and 57k respectively.
Here it will be decided if this rally the past 4 weeks was just a bounce, and we continue with a drop to 20k-ish, or
if this is really a sustained rally, and we continue towards new ATHs by the end of the year.
In the first scenario, shown with the...
So we can see that Bitcoin clearly shows a new dynamic since 2018, which it didn't have before.
Such a behavior as now without any kind of bounce, was unthinkable in 2010-2017. Bitcoin always loved huge bounces, but since 2018, when institutions started getting involved more and more, Bitcoin also started changing.
I expect Bitcoin therefore to behave very...
While I am still convinced that we are in a bitcoin bullmarket, this doesn't mean that BTC is immune to large drops.
We can see a very similar structure here like we had a few months ago. This is another Wyckoff distribution pattern like back then, the peaks until now
have really the same structure, and also the RSI both times showed a bearish divergence, which...
Hi, I just wanted to share the Macro for the logarithmic trendchannel. The one I believe to be correct, because it's based on the law of diminishing returns and decreasing bitcoin volatility.
I didn't write it myself, credits to Quantadelic aka Pinescript Pleb aka Stealer of Alpha & Destroyer of Discords who wrote the script.
// An indicator by...
So we don't know what BTC will do, but I think that XRP will as always closely follow Bitcoin the next years.
If BTC really manages to hit ATH in Nov/Dec this year, which is not impossible, then I expect XRPUSD to hit the 20-30 USD region.
However, I think that this is unlikely, currently.
I think that BTC will climb to 55k now, pretend to be bullish, and then...
So many bitcoin analysts find themselves surprised at what BTC is doing.
Apparently the old fractals from 2013 and 2017 aren't working any more, and now even the Wyckoff accumulation pattern seems to be failing us. What the hell BTC???
Well what if BTC changed its behavior at some point, I assume it must have been in 2018. The 2018 low was already very very...
So when trying to understand what the hell XRP is doing, I looked at the chart further back in history.
Then I noticed an interesting fractal pattern early in XRP's history, in the 2013-2014 era, when the coin was still young.
Turns out, XRPBTC back then did something extremely similar. Eerily similar actually, and that although the situation back then was...
I see really two scenarios now.
Bitcoin recovers and continues the rally this year, kind of like the double rally in 2013.
This would lead to 150k by the end of the year or early 2022.
Or bitcoin takes the slow route with a retest of 20k, this means 215k by late 2022.
Let us see how the indicators will look by August, that's when we hopefully will be able to...
I am quite sure that this has not been the top of this cycle, as it would contradict basically all theories about bitcoin price evolution, the logarithmic model, as well as PlanB's stock to flow model.
I think we will see a similar situation as in 2013, but now I think it is getting likely that the cycles are getting longer each time.
So in 2013, the duration...
Of course this is something that nobody will want to hear, but the very weak price action of BTC makes me think that we'll revisit the weekly moving average 200.
This is a very longterm and very important support for BTC. Every time we revisit this area, there is great panic and despair in the air.
We did so in the brutal bearmarket low in 2014/15, then in 2018,...