It's time to look again at good old XRP, the historically most brutal coin to hold, and it again does confirm its reputation.
The price action of XRP has been really subpar compared to some other coins, that have already seen strong rises, in accordance to the rise of BTC to new all-time highs.
This is of course largely due to the SEC vs Ripple case, and the...
Hi, I just wanted to share the Macro for the logarithmic trendchannel. The one I believe to be correct, because it's based on the law of diminishing returns and decreasing bitcoin volatility.
I didn't write it myself, credits to Quantadelic aka Pinescript Pleb aka Stealer of Alpha & Destroyer of Discords who wrote the script.
// An indicator by...
While I am still convinced that we are in a bitcoin bullmarket, this doesn't mean that BTC is immune to large drops.
We can see a very similar structure here like we had a few months ago. This is another Wyckoff distribution pattern like back then, the peaks until now
have really the same structure, and also the RSI both times showed a bearish divergence, which...
BTCUSD is nearing the extremely important 0.618 and 0.768 Fibonacci resistance levels at 51k and 57k respectively.
Here it will be decided if this rally the past 4 weeks was just a bounce, and we continue with a drop to 20k-ish, or
if this is really a sustained rally, and we continue towards new ATHs by the end of the year.
In the first scenario, shown with the...
So we don't know what BTC will do, but I think that XRP will as always closely follow Bitcoin the next years.
If BTC really manages to hit ATH in Nov/Dec this year, which is not impossible, then I expect XRPUSD to hit the 20-30 USD region.
However, I think that this is unlikely, currently.
I think that BTC will climb to 55k now, pretend to be bullish, and then...
So we can see that Bitcoin clearly shows a new dynamic since 2018, which it didn't have before.
Such a behavior as now without any kind of bounce, was unthinkable in 2010-2017. Bitcoin always loved huge bounces, but since 2018, when institutions started getting involved more and more, Bitcoin also started changing.
I expect Bitcoin therefore to behave very...
So many bitcoin analysts find themselves surprised at what BTC is doing.
Apparently the old fractals from 2013 and 2017 aren't working any more, and now even the Wyckoff accumulation pattern seems to be failing us. What the hell BTC???
Well what if BTC changed its behavior at some point, I assume it must have been in 2018. The 2018 low was already very very...
I see really two scenarios now.
Bitcoin recovers and continues the rally this year, kind of like the double rally in 2013.
This would lead to 150k by the end of the year or early 2022.
Or bitcoin takes the slow route with a retest of 20k, this means 215k by late 2022.
Let us see how the indicators will look by August, that's when we hopefully will be able to...
I am quite sure that this has not been the top of this cycle, as it would contradict basically all theories about bitcoin price evolution, the logarithmic model, as well as PlanB's stock to flow model.
I think we will see a similar situation as in 2013, but now I think it is getting likely that the cycles are getting longer each time.
So in 2013, the duration...
So when trying to understand what the hell XRP is doing, I looked at the chart further back in history.
Then I noticed an interesting fractal pattern early in XRP's history, in the 2013-2014 era, when the coin was still young.
Turns out, XRPBTC back then did something extremely similar. Eerily similar actually, and that although the situation back then was...
Of course this is something that nobody will want to hear, but the very weak price action of BTC makes me think that we'll revisit the weekly moving average 200.
This is a very longterm and very important support for BTC. Every time we revisit this area, there is great panic and despair in the air.
We did so in the brutal bearmarket low in 2014/15, then in 2018,...
Bitcoin has decided to not bounce nicely in the latest drop and I write this only a few hours before the weekly candle close.
If the weekly closes like this, it is really bearish.
I have warned in the last months that there is a strong possibility for bearish...
So now that BTC had taken a hit, what does this mean for XRP?
Well, this will entirely depend on BTC, surprise surprise.
If BTC recovers now, and resumes the rally soon, topping out at 200k or more by the end of 2021, so will XRP reach the top a few weeks after the BTC top.
But if BTC needs a longer recovery after this dump, then so will XRP need longer to...
Ok so what would happen if we'd overlay the 2017 second half rally from the dip to 3000 until the top to 20k
to match what is happening now.
Because I think this shakeout is quite similar. I think we'll go to 40k, plusminus a few k. That is a very strong support area.
Afterwards, we would accordingly see a rise to 400k.
Is it possible? I don't know, but that is...
So after releasing the last chart where we contemplated the possibility that BTC might enter a mini bearmarket, and that the real top will come in 2023 (lengthening cycle theory), now let's see
how high bitcoin would go, if it would resume pumping already in the next days or at least this month.
We actually have a nice historical comparison, namely the 2011...
Let's talk about ETH again, because it seems to lead the altcoin rally right now, and it's interesting for many reasons, how high it will go in this run.
Can it hit directly the old ATH level, or even surpass it, directly now in this run? So ETHBTC to 0.15 or even 0.2?
I am going to argue that this is extremely unlikely.
ETHBTC at 0.15 would mean, should BTC...
Lately I was again revisiting the strange notion how much earlier this cycle appears to be than the previous one.
We were already up to 50-60k by early this year, values which I thought we wouldn't reach until late 2021.
But if we look at the historical trends, the cycle duration was increasing and not decreasing. If that would continue, then the real ATH should...
As in the case with XRP, we can estimate a realistic top for ETH in this cycle.
Last cycle, XRP was also around 50% BTC's marketcap at the top in early 2018.
With BTC at around 17k USD, so a marketcap of 300 billion USD, this gave us 150 billion USD marketcap for ETH, or around 1500 USD for the peak.
With this cycle BTC hitting 100k, this would give us 1...