SebastianofMoon

SebastianofMoon Updated 

While I am still convinced that we are in a bitcoin bullmarket, this doesn't mean that BTC is immune to large drops. We can see a very similar structure here like we had a few months ago. This is another Wyckoff distribution pattern like back then, the peaks until now have really the same structure, and also the RSI both times showed a bearish divergence, which...

SebastianofMoon

Hi, I just wanted to share the Macro for the logarithmic trendchannel. The one I believe to be correct, because it's based on the law of diminishing returns and decreasing bitcoin volatility. I didn't write it myself, credits to Quantadelic aka Pinescript Pleb aka Stealer of Alpha & Destroyer of Discords who wrote the script. //@version=4 // // An indicator by...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

So we don't know what BTC will do, but I think that XRP will as always closely follow Bitcoin the next years. If BTC really manages to hit ATH in Nov/Dec this year, which is not impossible, then I expect XRPUSD to hit the 20-30 USD region. However, I think that this is unlikely, currently. I think that BTC will climb to 55k now, pretend to be bullish, and then...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

So many bitcoin analysts find themselves surprised at what BTC is doing. Apparently the old fractals from 2013 and 2017 aren't working any more, and now even the Wyckoff accumulation pattern seems to be failing us. What the hell BTC??? Well what if BTC changed its behavior at some point, I assume it must have been in 2018. The 2018 low was already very very...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

So when trying to understand what the hell XRP is doing, I looked at the chart further back in history. Then I noticed an interesting fractal pattern early in XRP's history, in the 2013-2014 era, when the coin was still young. Turns out, XRPBTC back then did something extremely similar. Eerily similar actually, and that although the situation back then was...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

I see really two scenarios now. Bitcoin recovers and continues the rally this year, kind of like the double rally in 2013. This would lead to 150k by the end of the year or early 2022. Or bitcoin takes the slow route with a retest of 20k, this means 215k by late 2022. Let us see how the indicators will look by August, that's when we hopefully will be able to...

SebastianofMoon

I am quite sure that this has not been the top of this cycle, as it would contradict basically all theories about bitcoin price evolution, the logarithmic model, as well as PlanB's stock to flow model. I think we will see a similar situation as in 2013, but now I think it is getting likely that the cycles are getting longer each time. So in 2013, the duration...

SebastianofMoon

Of course this is something that nobody will want to hear, but the very weak price action of BTC makes me think that we'll revisit the weekly moving average 200. This is a very longterm and very important support for BTC. Every time we revisit this area, there is great panic and despair in the air. We did so in the brutal bearmarket low in 2014/15, then in 2018,...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

Ok so what would happen if we'd overlay the 2017 second half rally from the dip to 3000 until the top to 20k to match what is happening now. Because I think this shakeout is quite similar. I think we'll go to 40k, plusminus a few k. That is a very strong support area. Afterwards, we would accordingly see a rise to 400k. Is it possible? I don't know, but that is...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

So now that BTC had taken a hit, what does this mean for XRP? Well, this will entirely depend on BTC, surprise surprise. If BTC recovers now, and resumes the rally soon, topping out at 200k or more by the end of 2021, so will XRP reach the top a few weeks after the BTC top. But if BTC needs a longer recovery after this dump, then so will XRP need longer to...

SebastianofMoon

Bitcoin has decided to not bounce nicely in the latest drop and I write this only a few hours before the weekly candle close. If the weekly closes like this, it is really bearish. I have warned in the last months that there is a strong possibility for bearish scenarios: and Unfortunately I also didn't anticipate that it would come so quickly and so...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

So after releasing the last chart where we contemplated the possibility that BTC might enter a mini bearmarket, and that the real top will come in 2023 (lengthening cycle theory), now let's see how high bitcoin would go, if it would resume pumping already in the next days or at least this month. We actually have a nice historical comparison, namely the 2011...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

LTC, as well as the other coins, is printing a really nice structure, ripe for breakout. Namely, we have a huge bullish divergence in the RSI on the weekly timeframe, while LTCBTC is falling. LTC is a ticking timebomb, ripe for a brutal rally, same as many other altcoins. We can go as high as the historical falling resistance line which I drew.

SebastianofMoon Updated 

Many people ask how high XRP can realistically go this cycle. If we look at historical price development, in 2017 XRP had actually two rallies. The first brought it to a full 4.236 fibonacci extension at 0.45 in May 2017, and then the second rally to 3.5 USD in January 2018. I think that such a double rally will probably occur again this time, however, I think...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

Lately I was again revisiting the strange notion how much earlier this cycle appears to be than the previous one. We were already up to 50-60k by early this year, values which I thought we wouldn't reach until late 2021. But if we look at the historical trends, the cycle duration was increasing and not decreasing. If that would continue, then the real ATH should...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

Let's talk about ETH again, because it seems to lead the altcoin rally right now, and it's interesting for many reasons, how high it will go in this run. Can it hit directly the old ATH level, or even surpass it, directly now in this run? So ETHBTC to 0.15 or even 0.2? I am going to argue that this is extremely unlikely. ETHBTC at 0.15 would mean, should BTC...

SebastianofMoon

As in the case with XRP, we can estimate a realistic top for ETH in this cycle. Last cycle, XRP was also around 50% BTC's marketcap at the top in early 2018. With BTC at around 17k USD, so a marketcap of 300 billion USD, this gave us 150 billion USD marketcap for ETH, or around 1500 USD for the peak. With this cycle BTC hitting 100k, this would give us 1...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

So BTC is dumping, and it comes as no surprise, because we saw in the last weeks that it was printing a bearish rising wedge on falling volume and on top a strong bearish divergence in the RSI on 1d-1w timeframes. XRP now is dumping stronger than other alts. What is going on? Why? Will this be the end of XRP? Will the XRP bullrun be over now? Well, we can...