Here is all patterns i can see with current HSI structure.
At 31600, there is a bearish gartley (78%).
At this exact same level, there is a 5-0 pattern (161% extension) which would lead to a ~50% drop in a form of AB=CD .
I tend to think, when fibs are nicely aligned (confluence) the probability is high to touch the level.
HSI could rally up to 31600, falls down...
Despite i'm bearish on Bitcoin, i have to admit this is a perfect bullish shark pattern.
With perfect 161% on (C) and 224% on (D)
In theory the target is 11,000 and then it will fall again down to 4000 and lower.
Scenario is valid as long as (D) holds
We have a clear support at ~2900, and if it breaks what could be the target ?
I would bet on this shark pattern because the D point is perfect, 88% and 161% are aligned.
If support doesnt break, forget this scenario
I think people are now used to it.
the (C) peak was an aborted breakout (around 127%), and then prices felt miserably down to 161% extension BC. Prices bounce on the D point, 88.6%.
Now we're going to retrace up to 61.8% of CD and expect a rejection around there.
We have a 5-0 pattern followed by a bearish AB=CD structure, close to 50% retracement.
Prices are currently testing the D point.
If it breaks upward, it will quickly rally up to 88.6% (13400)
If AB=CD effectively rejects, then it will fall like a rock.
First the channel breaks but prices bounce on the wedge.
Investors think it's Ok.
The bounce stops below channel, prices fall and break the wedge.
Then it bounce at 161%. Retracement stops below the wedge, then it crashes down to the long term support
I know most people are now bearish on EURUSD because it broke 1.2150, but harmonic patterns are STRONGER and take the lead. We have positive price action at the 127% extension, 1.2067.
The risk here is that it fails and tries the next fib 161% below, at 1.19x
But the targets are 78% XA projection at 1.23
Then 161% XA projection at 1.2580.
It could even go higher.
The chart is the CAC40 with dividends + the futures market prices (8am-22pm sessions). It's like the DAX futures.
We have a perfect bearish Gartley, with a sell signal today at the 78% Fibonacci level.
On the CAC40 index, the lower target (TP3) would be 4840 points.