On a log scale, i can see US10 to follow a trend-line. We are on it.
Most dips on US10 were stock market dips (1998, 2003, 2008).
Be careful at shorting indexes if the US10 yield goes back up.
PS: I tagged it "short", because if yield goes up, it's a short on T-Bonds.
We will have a dead cat bounce up to ~3200 to activate a butterfly target at 2300. Right on previous major LOW. We need AT LEAST 3200 for this to work.
Then another dead cat, and a fall to 1650, to complete a shark pattern.
Once we reach 1650, market could range between 1650 and 2500 for years.
It's blowing my mind how the 161% extensions (golden number) are...
Here is all patterns i can see with current HSI structure.
At 31600, there is a bearish gartley (78%).
At this exact same level, there is a 5-0 pattern (161% extension) which would lead to a ~50% drop in a form of AB=CD .
I tend to think, when fibs are nicely aligned (confluence) the probability is high to touch the level.
HSI could rally up to 31600, falls down...
Despite i'm bearish on Bitcoin, i have to admit this is a perfect bullish shark pattern.
With perfect 161% on (C) and 224% on (D)
In theory the target is 11,000 and then it will fall again down to 4000 and lower.
Scenario is valid as long as (D) holds
We have a clear support at ~2900, and if it breaks what could be the target ?
I would bet on this shark pattern because the D point is perfect, 88% and 161% are aligned.
If support doesnt break, forget this scenario