SebastienYC_FR

SebastienYC_FR

both Fibonacci extensions 161/261 are exactly on the same level 6008 pts. How to trade : - aggressive : sell if it closes red tomorrow, stop above recent high. target 6008 pts - standard : first wait for 6008 then buy for double top 7600

SebastienYC_FR

Of course in this crazy bull market, talking about reversal zones is always funny. But well here it is. If you believe in harmonic patterns, we have an almost perfect Bearish Crab, with an eye (B) between 38-50% of the dotcom krach. The subprime krach felt to 91% (very close to 88.6%) And the PRZ (potential reversal zone) is at 161.8%, which is 7619 points. If...

SebastienYC_FR

This the CAC40 index, reinvested dividends and in USD currency (not euro). if it doesnt breakout and reverse, it could retrace 50% fibo (the green line)

SebastienYC_FR

Not a really good level to buy, isnt it ?

SebastienYC_FR

An average 10% rise

SebastienYC_FR Updated 

Statistics : Breakout Downward 73% of the time. Overall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): 6 out of 23; 14 out of 21 Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 2%; 11% Average rise/decline: 38%; 17% Throwback/pullback rate: 50%; 57% Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 69%; 58%

SebastienYC_FR

This is a ratio between S&P500 total return and French CAC40 total return. It surprised me, but each time it touched a bottom of the channel, a geopolitic event occurred somewhere and both Euro indexes and EUR/USD collapsed. 2010 : First Greek debt crisis 2011 : Second Greek debt crisis 2014 : End of QE3 and bad economics in Germany 2015 : China bubble bursts I...

SebastienYC_FR

5 of the most important tech in S&P500 index. 5th square root of -40% equals -10%

SebastienYC_FR

This is the the CAC40 index in USD currency (CAC*EURUSD), as viewed by international investors. As you can see, since the dip in 2009, this pattern happened 3 times. Each time it broke out the resistance (red), the rally did continue to 100% fibo prolongation. The error was less than 50 points. After that the index felt immediately at least 13%. Now it could be...

SebastienYC_FR

Up trend line

SebastienYC_FR

The fib are perfect, B point is close to 50% and D point already felt from 88.6%. Targets are shown here as CD retracements and XA fibonacci extensions. How to trade : short close to D point (12000) with a stop above X point. Buy (cover) on retracement confluence zones, then resell higher. All the way down to 7500 (well that's speculative...) or at least 10600

SebastienYC_FR

Same pattern appeared on november 2015, resulting a 1100 points drop

SebastienYC_FR

If RUSSELL fails below resistance it will drop quickly to the 1280 level

SebastienYC_FR

If prices start to drop from 4780 level, a (perfect) bearish Gartley harmonic pattern can be validated. A long term resistance would be validated too, and a medium term resistance (the fork). First, prices could drop to the 4600 horizontal support, then rebound, and retest the resistance, before falling sharply to a long term support (2010-2016). Ultimate target...

SebastienYC_FR Updated 

May be may be not ... but i would be extremely careful now