Sforex

Sforex

Last Friday, Canada employment report sent a RED alarm to Loonie. I anticipated data would be negative and BUY ahead the news, but unfortunately, it seemed USDCAD ignored FA and was muted at 1.3360 Moreover, OPEC refused to cut production despite of global glut. Fundamental doesn't support Loonie currently. Last week, 5 trading days is 5 doji stars on the...

Sforex

On last Friday, OPEC announced that they wouldn't cut production despite of global glut. The main reason is OPEC don't want to surrender in a war against US oil producers. So Supply > Demand is still the main force driving Oil price. Look at on the chart, Oil bounced back from the Kumo cloud and Kijun Sen signaled that the downtrend begun to resume. Next, I...

Sforex

Next week, the main focus regarding to Kiwi is RBNZ Meeting on Wednesday. RBNZ in last meeting left the rate unchanged at 2.75%, and signaled a potential rate cut in this meeting : Likely, and market anticipates they will cut rate next meeting by 25bp to 2.5% The recent rally of NZDUSD didn't reflect a rate cut decision, why don't trade price for rate cut ? In...

Sforex

Oil resistance now becomes new support at 1.0820 Very strong resistance is at 1.1100 Payrolls tomorrow, I bet on negative data means support to Euro. 1.1100 is also : - SMA200 -SMA100 - Kumo cloud. So this is indeed a resistance which could capture EURUSD at there. Mood is BUY EURUSD, but we need find a better point to entry. I think EURUSD should test...

Sforex

Gold underwent 1.5 months of strong 'selloff", last week we saw Gold set up new YEAR LOW at 1053 Today, Gold bounces back from the new year low to the old year low. We will watch the reaction of GOLD around this level. Watching RSI and Stoch indicators, I see they escaped the oversold zone. After a long time lying in oversold zone, a short term retracement is...

Sforex

Last two weeks, the price action of GBPUSD made all traders to be surprised when it dropped more than 200 pips from SMA200 to month low at 1.5020; the main reason is traders still think that BOE is more hawkish than ECB and the hope for rate hike doesn't destroyed, and UK economic data in November were not bad at all, so why did market punish Sterling ? I think...

Sforex

- Fundamental Analysis This week, Canada should play a main actor on the FX stage with plenty of economic data. - Canada GDP - RBC Manufacturing PMI - BOC Meeting - Canada Employement report I think those are last pieces of Canada in this financial year; after this week, BOC members would shut down their computers and book the ticket for Chirstmas...

Sforex

- Fundamental Analysis After a quite trading week, this week, with the return of important economic data promises an eventful week to trade. Definitely, the main focus is ECB Meeting on Thursday, and we also have a EZ CPI data on Wednesday. A rate decision and a press conference are what traders watch in the meeting. So what do they actually expect and hope...

Sforex

I see that USDollar is in a dangerous situation when it has moved too far from Kumo cloud. Current level is at year high. However, I think this rally of USDollar is unusual. The fact is although USDollar contacted year high, major currency pairs haven't tested their lowest or highest levels this year : EURUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD. But I have...

Sforex

Next 24h, market pay all attention in EURUSD pair with heavy data which affect strongly on market. - Germany GDP - US GDP revision - Consumer Confidence - PCE data With Germany GDP, I bet to 80% this piece of data will be negative. If you recheck the performance of Germany data recent month, red covered the economic calendar, so this will transfer to Germany GDP...

Sforex

Last week, AUDUSD is the most surprising pair which rallied 200 pips following previous rally week. I haven't found a good explanation for this rally yet. This week. lack of Australia data, market pays attention to US consumer spending data, so I think the rally of Aussie should be limited. AUDUSD now stopped at strong support 0.7240, ceiling of Kumo cloud is...

Sforex

Last week, USDJPY rejected 123.75 level and bounced back from that level. I mark this is a resistance for USDJPY. With USDJPY ,we need to answer a question: Does Stock rally if FED hike rate ? Usually, when a central bank hikes rate, equity market falls down cause of higher borrow cost,but if a rate hike decision helps to cool down a hot economy, everything will...

Sforex

Last week, UK Retail Sales and CPI missed the forecast, I see Eurozone problems begin to spread to UK. The brightest spot of UK is consumer spending, but it seems lost momentum when Retail Sales slumped from 5.9% to 3% A surrender white flag I draw on the chart show that Sterling cut its rally at SMA50 and SMA200 + Kumo cloud. This week, like EURUSD, I support...

Sforex

Next week, North Ameica market closes on Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving day, only opens in three days: Mon, Tue, and Wed. Most traders back to their family for holiday so I don't expect a significant move in FX market . Last week, volatility and volume is very low, with holiday incoming, it's hard to bring volatility and volume come back. Main focus is: -...

Sforex

I forgot draw a H and S pattern on the chart, this TA view reinforces for my downtrend view of OIL.

Sforex

I begin weekly analysis with oil first. Last week, oil bounced back from the month low $41.22 and tested strong resistance at $44 Look at on the chart, oil fell under the old range and the strong support became strong resistance. I don't believe Oil could break this strong resistance and favor more agressive downtrend to year low $28.45 THE PROBLEM DOESN'T...

Sforex

Today, we see a strong 'selloff' of USDollar across the board vs all major currencies. While in FOMC Minutes yesterday, FED was more confident and more hawkish than ever. The probability of December rake hike raised as a result and we all believe that they will finish this financial year by a rate hike decision. But why traders SELL Dollar instead of BUY ? THE...

Sforex

Next 24h, market pays all attention on FOMC Minutes where we expect a significant move in FX market from both volatility and volume. Definitely, FED now is more confident than ever since the 2008 recession. Labor market improves steadily while inlfation is standing at 1.9% near FED's target at 2%. Market prepare all necessary conditions for FED to do A RIGHT...