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According to the Gann fan, we should find the first real support only on the 2/1 angle, which means price target at 200-300 USD/BTC.
Look at the price behaviour in the last months. When bitcoin is in a downtrend, every bounce/correction stops at 300 MA on 4hr timeframe. And when bitcoin is in an uptrend, correction stops at the same 300 MA. Right now we have broken the 300 MA again, and the previous runup (bounce) has stopped on the same MA again.
We probably have an ending diagonal which is acting as a wave C of a minor correction. Short-term target: 638-640, then next wave down.
USDRUB has touched the long-term uptrend line and has broken the short-term downtrend line. It seems the correction is over and the new motive wave up has started. My target: 40-41 rubles per $1 in 1-1.5 years.
We have broken the intermediate uptrend line which was valid last few months and right now have tested it. We still can go up to 630, but then will continue to go down.
We broke the pitchfork and tested it.
According to the historical bitcoin cycles, we are at the top for now. Time for the upwards direction is over and we are about to go down at any moment.
It seems like Bitcoin price acts more organically if we count it in Troy Unces of Gold.
The most important trend line since Gox times is broken even on Bitstamp.
Bats everywhere! Get out now! :D
My projection for the next 2 years
Just for fun
We have touched exactly the 0.382 fib retracement level of the previous downward move from $995 and found the new downtrend channel which is confirmed by the 2 previous lows.
And we finally finished the flat correction, where wave A = wave C. At least the golden section rule provides us powerful support.
Golden section. Bulls, where are you? It's your time beginning now!
We probably have a triangle which usually appears as a 4th wave right before a trend reversal. The triangle nose time point (possible trend reversal point) is right at February 20th, when MtGox is going to resume BTC withdrawals and trigger the new rally.
We are starting the last, 5th subwave of the wave started in July 2013 and will finish it in late April/early May 2014.
Mr. Gann suggests us possible pivot (reversal) weeks, mr. Elliott suggests possible top price and my astrolog says we should have the market peak in the "new moon" day (April 29th).
The $638 Gann line became support again, and when we break $677, the next possible pivot points are $743 and $785