Morning everybody, Under negative GDP numbers and Fed trash talks, there are few who signed a shift in fundamental background. US government and Fed are defeated by inflation and turn back to QE(as well as ECB). Fed fails to keep QT pace, buying less bonds that it has promised. In fact, with spending money from US Treasury deposit - there was no tightening but...
Morning folks, So, BTC keep showing upward pullback and recent dovish Fed decision has let it to start upward action from predefined level: As we expect negative GDP numbers, in a moment it should weak the US Dollar, which in turn, should be supportive to BTC and could let it to reach next 25.5-26K resistance area. For position taking you could use most...
Morning folks, So, miracle has not happened and BTC stucked around 23K area - first major daily resistance area. On intraday charts we do not have any bearish patterns yet and could even say that bulls have theoretical chances on upside action to 25.5-26.2K next resistance area, but... we do not believe that this will happen... and here is why. With coming big...
Morning folks, As BTC stands relatively free until major events on next week, it shows tactical upside pullback where we've set two targets. First one around 23K is completed already and next one is around 25.5K. Although we think that chances that BTC will reach it are low. This week it is vitally important where market will close, because it makes direct...
Morning folks! I suppose you're very inspiring with recent BTC performance, thus, we did also suggest last time upside action. But to be honest - it is nothing to be happy about. Those who read our Fundamental reports on FPA site know what I'm talking about. The reason of the rally on stock market and BTC is Fed liquidity pump in recent two weeks. Yes, we...
Morning folks, As we've warned last time - BTC has to keep dropping because of fundamentals and cheating Fed action with its QT programme. Recent CPI numbers also stand not in favor of the bulls - now we could suggest 1% Fed change on next meeting. Thus, we're sceptic on any bullish performance right now. Based on technical picture we do not argue against minor...
Morning folks, BTC was able to show a bit higher pullback, reaching minor 3/8 Fib resistance around 21.30K, although we've expected direct downside continuation. Why we've made a mistake? Well, we've trusted to the Fed promise that it should sell 48.5 Bln assets off the balance... But they have lied. In June they have sold six times smaller amount - just around...
Morning folks, As we've suggested last time - butterfly could be re-shaped if BTC shows upside AB-CD action but it makes no impact on its target and on the direction. Now we have three technical reasons to expect downside continuation on BTC market . First is the same bearish dynamic pressure on the daily chart, where MACD stands bullish but price action is not,...
Morning folks, It is not occasionally every time we point that we do not consider any long positions on BTC market, despite that show you bullish patterns from time to time. Based on our Fundamental view - it is too early to speak on reversal as Fed has not started the tapering yet, but BTC already has lost 60% of capitalization. So, our approach is to watch for...
Morning guys, So, H&S that we've mentioned week ago is working slowly. It is not necessary to talk alot about it. Since bearish fundamental background has not changed and we still have long term 12K target - we consider this pattern as the chance to get better entry price on the short side. Thus, if miracle happens and it works, then 23-24.2K area seems like...
Morning folks, Well, as you know - we're sceptic on any bullish setups that BTC is forming, just because we know the fundamental situation and it has no chances to normalize within few years. Thus, we keep valid our long-term targets on BTC of 12-13K and next is 8-9K. Now market has big technical problems - it has no more strong supports, it is not at oversold...
Greetings everybody, So, BTC goes with our long term view, that suggests next target around 12.17K. Meantime, as market takes the rest after yesterday's thrilling session, minor tactical bounce could happen. If H&S works - BTC could re-test broken lows, which is also 25K-resistance area as well. H&S should start from ~ 21K. If BTC doesn't do it - be prepared for...
Morning folks, Those who read our weekly reports on FPA site on fundamental analysis of the US economy probably are not surprised with the BTC collapse. As BTC as the stock market are doomed. We expect 2500 level on S&P on mid-term perspective with further drop below 2000 in longer-term, which means that our long term targets on BTC is 12K and 8K... Now BTC is...
Morning folks, Price performance looks nervous in recent few sessions. Based on what I see on intraday chart, it seems that BTC is trying to break down the 29.65-29.67 K support area that we've discussed previously. Because it doesn't look like upward reversal. On daily chart we have bearish wedge consolidation and uncompleted weekly 25.9K target. Yes, lower...
Morning guys, This update is better to watch together with the previous one. So, our topic is next BTC target - 34.10K. How do you think, whether it will reach it? I hope so. At least the start of the week looks inspiring. In fact, last week Fed has added to financial system around $140 Bln (check the cash account of US Treasury), and this has let market to find...
Morning folks, So, BTC has hit our first 0.618 upside extension and shows 3/8 pullback, which is normal. Downside action looks a bit strong and BTC now shows no signs of upside reversal. But we see two factors that could let BTC to keep going with the upside AB=CD pattern. First is cross-market analysis. On 10year yield we have clear H&S pattern, on FX, Gold...
Morning folks, BTC now follows to common tendency that we see on all markets - FX, stocks, bonds etc. But this is not the change of the trend, this is not the breakthrough in the mind of investors, guys. This is just liquidity pumping from the Fed. Although QT programme should start in June, in recent two months Fed "returned" back ~ $200 Bln, and this is the...
Morning folks, So, bearish signs are still here. On the daily chart the same pennant that we've discussed last time. On 4H chart market was not even to complete "222" Sell pattern that we've discussed last time. I wouldn't even talk about butterfly and its target around 32 K level. As in the long-term we expect 2500 level on S&P 500 index, our view on BTC...