SviCapital

SviCapital

The market is in the process of establishing a short term bottom, which is part of the bear flag formation pattern . Once the low edge of the flag is set - expect and automatic rally to set the top of the bear flag. Make no mistake this is not a reversal. The action often referred as a relief rally. Once the top is set expect a consolidation within the flag....

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Here we are again. Consolidation within the right shoulder. An attempt to break the H&S pattern has failed. It increases the odds for the buy side to go after the ATH. However, this week is the FOMC - the mother of all events. It is impossible to predict the market reaction. What comes to rescue is the trusted technique: acceptance/rejection of the inflection...

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A strong rally on Tuesday to undo the H&S pattern from further unfolding. Back to the right shoulder top. Fascinating isn't? One can notice how the overnight session is used to move the market in the direction that causes the most pain. If you attempt to predict the market next move think from an angle what direction would be the most painful, where the majority...

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Back test of the neckline and rejection has accelerated the downside move on Friday. Sell side in firm control so far. The H&S formation at the end of the upside move and its unfolding suggests further decline to come. There is some sign of dip buyers lurking at the 50% ret. They even managed to close above S1. This is a mechanical reaction of the Algos so...

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The Holiday week had surprised the traders seeing a strong move downside on Black Friday. I was one of then. Having a habit to wake up and watch the EU opening sometimes is rewarding :) The official narrative is a concern over the virus mutation found in Africa. Don't you find that news convenient to initiate a move to downside? Look at the chart - you can't make...

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It's getting almost ridiculous to post the ideas when the market is trending up with no sign of backing off. Shallow pullbacks are bought. From technicals view the price does what is supposed to do. A breakout of the previous swing high and continuation. The next week is a Holiday week which is seasonally bullish. We may see smaller daily ranges. I personally...

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I have highlighted a box where the market spent the last week. A concentration of inflection levels coming from different timeframes: weekly, monthly, quarterly. No wonder the price has a hard time to take off. The Friday's action ended right at the quarterly R2. Looking at the bigger picture: the Elliott wave aficionados may recognize a formation of the wave...

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This past week rally brought the price to the monthly R1. It seems the bulls in a rush to establish the dominance from the get-go. From the price action perspective this is all logical. Ignore big numbers, as I mentioned in my previous post, the numbers have no meaning to the machines. Look at the chart from a perspective of the price action and patterns. Market...

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This past week the price made above the weekly expected move defined by the options market. This is known as a gamma squeeze. The excessive buying of Calls forces the market maker to buy underlying securities that results in higher prices. This is inefficient market situation. Looking 3 year back at the options market I noticed a handful number of weeks when...

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In my previously posted idea I outlined potential targets for the week: monthly and quarterly R1s. Both targets were tagged and the market entered a consolidation phase. The monthly and quarterly resistance are controlled by larger timeframe participants. So far a muted reaction, the price is consolidating, while those participants are waiting for the big tech...

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This past week the price broke the monthly/quarterly pivots and on the way to retest the monthly R1. At least it looks that way. There is a hurdle on the way though. My anticipation is to see a pullback reaction. The price is short term exhausted. Whoever missed the move is waiting for that pullback and without their firm participation it is not easy to keep...

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This past week the market practically retested the monthly S1 and monthly pivot. A big range offered plenty of opportunities for day traders. But for investors who like to use the "set and forget" strategy the time has not come. Conflicting news terrorized the machines on both sides. From a larger pattern development I personally envision the H&S pattern in...

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Market is in the distribution mode. The new month started and offered new levels for the machines. My personal view is a big H&S pattern formation in play. I projected potential boundaries of the right shoulder. A strong bounce on Friday may correct the lower edge if not taken out. But for now I go with a symmetrical shoulder. The previous month S1 and this month...

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Last week the market broke the monthly pivot and rushed to retest the monthly S1. The idea was presented in the last post. Buy side has defended the S1 and pushed the price back to monthly pivot. The week started and ended at the monthly pivot. This is half-full-half-empty situation depending on one's view. Considering a short term exhaustion, I would expect a...

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Market has formed yet another consolidation area right above the monthly pivot. The last session breached the level for a short period of time. This is not enough market generated information to infer the next move. Wait and see approach. The monthly pivot is an important inflection level watched by big players. It is also a battle ground level for them. The...

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A balance breakdown on Friday is a first sign of distribution. The monthly pivot reaction to watch. This is the area where we may see attempts of each side either continue downside or reverse back to retest the broken balance. Regardless of that plenty of good opportunities ahead! The daily breakdown bar has created a lot of talks among the traders and media. ...

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The price action is not showing a warning sign so far. Each consolidation resolves in a breakout-continuation pattern. The bigger consolidation the bigger a leg up. The new month set the new pivot levels for the Algos to aim. The last consolidation above the previous month R2 is to watch. A breakdown may lead to a retest of this month pivot or previous month R1...

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The market is about to end the month of August with strong gains. In my previous post I mentioned the upside target monthly R1, it's been tagged and remains a support until broken. The price is on the way to retest monthly R2. A breach of monthly R1 and return back into the previous consolidation would be a warning sign. Consider larger timeframes like weekly...