Trading sideways is indicative of a reversal. With pressure on commodities and event risk looming it's safe to say that the reason NZDUSD is trading sideways is because of Yellen, therefore while this is a good technical setup if there isn't follow through with important guidance I might cancel the trade just due to rollover fees I've experienced with this...
Real flat market until we see any guidance I believe a large part of the EURO support has to do with inflows on the presumption capital markets will rally given the ECB is giving markets free money.
Need greek decision
Next week Yellen need not be ambiguous
I am short at 1.43 but the range is providing good trades long and short.
My medium-term to long term bias is bearish on the EUR for the following reasons -
Due to the uncertainty of the Greek exit investors perceptions are relatively negative albeit there have been recent positive developments as to an agreement. There are several possible scenarios thus I am both long in the short run and short in the medium term.
Near term is...
The fed was bearish on the economy the last meeting about GDP and disinflationary pressures. Looking for a bounce to sell again at 1.513 Short from 1.52 ATM with a larger order targeting 1.4 in the long term. ST target is the 1.496-4 level then the 1.4886 level.
The EURUSD is a great example of crowd sentiment. Here we see the EURUSD overextended on political uncertainty and policy divergence. Looking for a short squeeze above 1.19-2 to add to my short. Looking for US 2 YR to guide my thesis.
That huge pinbar denotes minor topping risks and while USDCHF moved above the .9724 price barrier which asess former topping risks and turns the attention back to more important price levels at .982 / .9841 – the high from earlier in December and the 2013 high.
If we see an extension above .9841 we can challenge .997.
As of now we are overextended and bids...
Bearish divergence looking like a double top with multiple pin bars at resistance. No material news to push this pair higher looks like a nice short down to lower levels. First targeting the 50 SMA then support on 143 where I'll look to go long again.
Seeing a bit of divergence. If we cant sustain the 50MA looking for a move lower to 114.4-114. This is likely to happen as profit taking usually occurs before big event risk ie. Friday. We saw that in the GBPJPY pair today I was up 300 pips and an hour later only 200. So be careful to look for news events!
Oil prices are going to continue to fall YTD continue with the trend especially at the 200 MA and buy USDCAD this is a calculated risk that is relatively safe when considering the macro developments the only risk is a strengthening Canadian economy which will weight this pair down or if we see a spike in oil prices.
Just bought in at 114.05 it looks like we are in oversold territory right now and with multiple pins here I think it's a good idea to go long with the recent moves I wouldnt hesitate to go long although I would PREFER to buy a dip at lower levels ESPECIALLY at 112.5 to fill that gap and it is much closer top the 200 MA. Not much data from the US except Friday....
Hoping traders take profits before fridays news so we can see a further retracement that will allow us to exploit deflation in commodities. Specifically oil and a stronger USD. Great fundamental trade to get back in if you havent done so yet.