About meJust a guy whose specialisation in 17th century French philosophy led him to a job leading a healthtech innovation team. Hopefully, his hobby as an amateur trader will allow him to retire early as a gentleman woodworker on a farm on top of a skyscraper.
• Triangle forming since ATH in Nov’21, with the base of the triangle extending back to the peak of Wave 1 in Jun’19.
• We might still be in a Wave 4 triangle.
• Let’s see if this trading pattern holds.
• But nonetheless, May’22 promises to be interesting indeed.
• (And it would be a good test of the adage to Sell in May and Go Away).
• I maintain my position that I have not seen any price action that would suggest LRCUSD establishing a new ATH.
• That being said, LRCUSD is indeed reaching rather attractive levels to consider DCAing in.
• Though LRCUSD might start dumping further, daily RSI is nearing record lows.
• Strategy A. Long if LRCUSD breaks above the parallel channel and closes 2 daily...
• DXY has closed the weekly below the blue 276 week-long trendline.
• RSI is oversold, and may be forming a double top.
• DXY’s price action this week will probably tell us what’s next.
• Historically, DXY has retested the BMSB when it closes below the 8W SMA (currently at 99.7).
• If DXY closes the weekly below the blue trendline, it is probable that it closes...
• Since Apr’21, BTCUSD has been consolidating in a range.
• Wave (2) was relatively clean and simple. Wave (4) is thus likely to unfold as a more complex and frustrating correction.
• Dubious speculation: the $69K top might be the end of the B Wave in a running flat correction, and we are still in the C Wave, (4) in the larger wave count, which will bottom at...
• DXY indeed tested the 21W EMA after closing below the 8W SMA.
• However, it was a successful test and DXY pumped back up.
• Nonetheless, RSI is reaching oversold territory and historical weekly resistance.
• What goes up must come down. Doubly so for such speedy ascents.
• Let's watch this and the next weekly closes.
This analysis isn't really about ADA's price action, but on Cardano's fundamentals.
Cardano was founded back in 2017, and takes pride in adopting a process that relies heavily on academic research and engineering best practices.
However, it makes you wonder, if Cardano's management takes so much pride in research, why would they name it after Gerolamo Cardano?...
• Historically, whenever DXY closes below the 8W SMA while it is in the ascendance (ie when DXY *was* above the 8W SMA, and the 8W SMA *is* above the 21W EMA), this has led to at least a test of the 21W EMA.
• A subsequent failure of this test will lead to DXY further downtrending for several weeks.
• In all probability, DXY will be closing below the 8W SMA, while...
• When LRCUSD is in an uptrend and closes below the 8W SMA, it has at least tested the 21W EMA.
• It’s now testing the 21W EMA, which also happens to be around the price where many bought in end-Oct’21 / early-Nov’21.
• Fundamentally, the mood within the reddit groups have turned from jubilant to rather downbeat, and has the potential to further worsen if LRCUSD...
• No real change from my original post on BTC.D SHORT.
• Just some minor adjustments to update the chart.
• Furthermore, I’ve put in Elliott waves to further highlight the similarities between this bullrun and the previous.
• Wave C will become more apparent when the 20W SMA crosses over the 21W EMA.
• By the way, as per my original post on BTC.D SHORT, NFTs are booming.
Just posting a snapshot of a bullish looking MATIC which I really regret not picking up in Jan'21. Not adding it to my bag or trading it in the foreseeable future, but it is worth following MATICBTC so as to seriously consider adding it to my bag for the next bullrun.
• C&H pattern on the weekly.
• Cup from 2018 ATH to this bullrun’s 1st ATH.
• Handle from this bullrun’s 1st ATH to end-Nov’21.
• Currently, retracing for confirmation.
• * Thesis invalidated if ETHBTC drops below 0.075.
• In reference to my Four Seasons model of BTCUSD, each BTCUSD can be subdivided into 4 "seasons". Besides the reiterating and alternating volatility in each “season”, there are several repeating macro trends (cf linked analysis).
• One reiterative macro trend is that BTCUSD has always (albeit with a small sample size) retested the 0.382 of its “Summer” phase...
* Very dubious speculation.
* Nonetheless, XEMUSD's behaviour during this BTCUSD bullrun is very similar to the previous.
* XEMUSD's behaviour during the 1st half of this BTCUSD bullrun and its behaviour during this mid-cycle consolidation period--temporal milestones as measured per BTCUSD and NOT XEMUSD--are both very similar to that of the last BTCUSD bullrun.
• It appears that DXY will continue trending upwards for the next few weeks, thus adding weight to the BTC lengthening cycle thesis.
• The probability of any parabolic move from BTCUSD correspondingly drops.
ANKR is one coin which I regret not picking up back in Jan'21.
However, given my trading approach (stress minimisation, long-term trading, trade minimisation, *and* take time to understand the personality of what you trade), I don't think I will be picking up ANKR any time soon.
Nonetheless, let's take some time to appreciate ANKRUSDT here.
Nice Fibs. Check.
• Cleaned up version of the previous analysis of BTCUSD’s macro trends; renamed as the BTCUSD Four Seasons to give it some personality.
• WIP. Subsequent updates will contain living lists of 1) assumptions; 2) falsified hypotheses; 3) hypotheses currently being tested; 4) potential hypotheses that may be tested in the future.
• There appears to be 4 distinct...
• ENJUSD has been forming an ascending parallel channel since Mar’20
• She touched the topline of this channel at her 1st peak.
• The Fib levels from 1st peak to bottom, from top to bottom of Wave 2, and from top to bottom of Wave 4 (assuming Wave 4 is over), suggest that she will reach the topline of this channel again between $6.076 - $8.056.
• ENJUSD has been...