Last chart I published was an 8-years forecast in 2018 which played out well, so far...
But I think it will soon become wrong.
The pandemic and its monetary and economic consequences boosted bitcoin much more than what could have been expected a few years ago. Money printing,...
BTC has a nice habit of drawing elegant geometric curves, and my guess is that this one has a good chance of dropping along this red curve. I would tend to call the overall move a bear trap, let's see.
The main reason for this forecast is that we are reproducing in a subtle, but quite close manner, the beginning of the bull market in 2015-16.
Btc had a strong push in Oct-Nov 2016, and behaved in a similar fashion as now, where it is consolidating at a rather high level, like it did in Dec-Jan 2015-16.
What happened after that, 3 years ago, is that major alts,...
This is a bold prediction. I have some gut feeling that this market has to surprise everyone, and in a grandiose way as usual.
Feeling that we might not be done yet with our parabolic move
I have two meta arguments for this prediction:
1. It would create extreme fomo and by selling around 40k, when everyone will expect 100k+, the whales orchestrating this move...
In case you have not seen my last post 2 weeks ago, I have been totally wrong. I predicted a pull back to 4k, and the contrary happened.
So why do I predict 10-12k now? Well, there is new info to my point of view. Before I get into this, I want to say that all that is very exciting because, first, the alts will probably pick up the profits of btc when it will...
After the sharp drop of last year, I haven't had a scenario in mind for what followed, so I have not published anything since November. And that's good because I didn't expect such a strong reversal to 5k. I have now a scenario in mind for the next few months and the main reason for that is that we have now a range defined by the local bottom at...
The idea behind this prediction is that we may overshoot downward, the same way we overshot in Feb, before ranging.
Such an overshoot and a panic sell would be a great opportunity for a mid term buy, the same way that it was a great buy in Feb at 6k.
If this happens we need to see high volume like shown by the arrow. Again, if possible, as much as in Feb.
My August-September-October forecast played out rather good, and nothing as changed since then, in terms of fundamentals.
In terms of technicals, the violent Tether-related action on Bitfinex might just give a little bullishness for the next few days, but nothing more in my opinion.
The fundamentals will pick up eventually, THIS MARKET NEEDS A FLUSH.
I sum up my...
We are currently seeing the third bounce in 2018 from the 5-6k levels.
I expect the current rally to make a lower high compared to March, which was itself a lower high compared to May
Maybe we go down after trying to reach the 200 dailyMA a second time around 8100.
On a pure technical point of view, the chart is totally bearish:
1. we have lower highs and lower...
The white vertical line is Jan 09.
The white horizontal line is my personal estimation for a ceiling in price and adoption.
The blue lines are my personal extrapolation of the range using historical peaks and dips.
A stabilization between 100 000 and 200 000 $ would put Bitcoin between 2 - 4 trillion $ market cap.
This would be relatively small compared to global...
Timing is the hardest part, but one thing is almost sure, the crypto market is going to crash.
As I already mentioned in my previous forecasts, my method is:
1. extract data from the web that tell what is the general trend and how strong is this trend.
2. fit this trend into the chart with a little bit of TA and volume analysis.
3. use the volume profile tool to...
This downtrend resistance is too oppressing, and would lead BTC to very low levels (1K - 4K) in a matter of weeks, which is unrealistic.
BTC may very well reach these low levels (1K - 4K), but such a gloomy market sentiment, if it comes, would take months to set, not weeks.
At the moment. volatility is decreasing. So, a strong sell down to 4K, right now seems...
This 4200 target may be the bottom of this bubble.
Depending on how things go in the few weeks following this 4200 low and a rebound, obviously, I would not be surprised to publish, a new lower target around 3000.
If this 3000 low happens, I think I will likely consider it as the overall low of this bubble.