A lot of the dislocations in the market seem to be coming back to normal. That being said I expect the zookeeper to remind the 8th that he's still in a cage. This is where I take profits and position short via far out of the money call spreads
Has the markets turn the liquid broadly we will continue to see shorts covered to cover margin costs for the broader market. looking at the chart it's now officially a breakout which means the ape army will be supported by momentum traders. There is still a decent supply demand and balance so as long as they hold firm as things melt down this will melt up. if...
Tips go based on real rates and speculative forces have pushed the long end of the curve extremely far. Although counter to what most think we're in a deflationary cycle. Tlt is needing a catalyst to cause mayhem and question the FED's credibility. Powell will likely get fired this time
Pxd short here could make you a bundle as global growth begins to come to a halt. In the oil space PXD is the fastest mover/most volatile name. Be sure to buckle your seat belt and wear your crash gear
Technicals look okay. Seeing the narrative beginning to change out of China is making me question whether or not this higher base can be sustained. Chinese GDP forecasts have changed and are forecasting slower growth than most were expecting, however the market seems resilient to the fact. As a macro signal pay close attention to the offshore yuan. Although AFS is...
Looking at refinery data nearly half of the US refineries are still offline. With weather improving I feel we are likely to see refineries come back online and restore balance supply demand wise. PPI and CPI will impact oil along with the ongoing change in narrative the Chinese recovery. Last week they announced that they're changing their GDP forecasts from 9%...
Part of oils amazing recovery is based on Chinese demand coming back to normal. As the yuan weakens all commodities especially crude will take the biggest hit. Oil is temporarily strong due to refinery outages still on going from last week's storms. When they come back online while demand is weakening it's a recipe for a nasty correction
As the market is turning illiquid. Now's the ape army's chance. Shorts are likely to reduce positioning to cover margin costs for the broader market wave. This is a speculative idea on how things will unfold but if right tell j powell thanks
Slowly seeing the fabric of the market come undone. Next week could be a vicious shock. As weird as it sounds these blips of illiquidity could be very bullish for the smooth brained silverbacks. Let's see how this plays out
china is devaluing again. when a country devalues (likely due to copper/input prices) it imports inflation (weakens currency) and exports deflation (strengthens competitors currency). looks like everyone may be wrong about inflation in a massive way if this baby really squeezes.
Articles are coming out describing net inflows into vix etps. Very important for retail investors to read the prospectus and realize the volatility curve will shred this product into peices. **This is a trading vehicle and will not influence futures pricing**