have bund/treasury volatility telling us the future? could rates U-turn? it will take a coordinated effort of via the two main reserve currencies. can they do it? i say likely no. things may get better or maybe worse, we shall see
pretty obvious the fed will do nothing next week, but will they acknowledge the possibility for a cut? i say more "transitory speak" regardless of what trump says a higher dollar is actually putting more pain on china and accentuating the possibility of capital flight. will we be good cop or bad cop? lets find out its going to be a wild ride
can she do it? she's givin' it all shes got. could be the start of one of the biggest gold runs we've seen in a longgggggg time
based on interest rates and the importance of the euro and USD for global trade. we're seeing an irrational shift thats artificially effecting equity volatility. ZIRP or zero interest rate policy in euro zone. is driving demand for USD and us treasuries vs eurozone risk off assets. this flow is exploiting an already dramatic difference in interest rates globally....
we'll either see a sharp continuation or a short covering. eow demand makes this still a coin toss, but what im leaning toward is bullish. i think itd be wise to spread risk and add a little to the long side due to US economic strength vs the world. i like CME's suggested 3 russ for 2 sp. im actually very bullish us equities based on price action in the bund. so i...
vix backwardation M1.70 (8 days til expiration) M2 1.58 yea this is pretty bleak. the fundamentals of the situation, mechanics of vix, and overall technicals all waranting a test of 2016 levels. the main risk of the chinese trade war escilations isnt inflation, but the pop of the chinese real estate bubble. for context id look back at the chinese real estate...
African swine flu is a big problem within china, I expect purchases from mainlain china to continue, however trade influences may change the dynamics of the pace as china seeks out an alternative sources. in combination with china trade, african swine, weather is affecting the overall strenght of the pork market during grilling season. i see more pain ahead. it's...
when playing vix it's important to know a few things. the spx skew, the volatility futures curve vs spot price, realized volatility, and the implied volatility of volatility. the SKEW has leveled off from 126-130 range (fairly elevated) to 116 lower range of the yearly average. that being said spx calls to puts iv differential are fairly weighted, but risk demand...
based on month open 30 dte stanard deviation. obviously a moving target and still a speculative instrument im messing around with. my theory is if we fail to hold the 286.07 level we may see a limit down scenario. catalyst eurozone easing prior to 10 year note auction likley to cause a spike in realized volatility. reason: negative rates in eurozone likley to...
so it begins. im under the impression that these tariff threats are a means to prevent a sell on the news event when the actual resolution occurs. volatility=velocity in my book in either direction. falling volatility is usually a very bullish sign so maybe. this trump tweet is a bluff to increase the velocity of the move post resolution this week (possibly). a...
looks like its gonna happen and its gonna be glorious. contango maintaining, cash moving but likely to fall
staying within a range of 286.07-303.37. input based on market open for monthly candle inputs: 30 DTE 1 standard deviation IV 10.24 month open 294.72 accommodation from fed is on going during transitory period. there are shoots of optimism growth wise. DXY virtuous cycle still in tact and likely to remain intact, the dollar is putting a cap on gold meaning...
based on models we exceeded levels expected. that being said i may take a more bearish stance going forth but tactically. ill update the may projections come market open
growth concerns still looming large, just lurking in the background. eurozone data and FOMC language may drive bond volatility higher. eurozone M3 showing the printing press is on in order to weaken the euro participants are likely to buy DXY. in order to buy DXY theyre likely to buy bonds. we're in for weird awkward times where everyone trips over their...