title pretty much sums it up. cattle exiting a consolidation period. cattle, hogs, grains one of my main indicators for trade talks. trade talks but also a necessity and seasonality
looks like the boj is about to lessen its yield control program to raise more caps for their sales tax hike later this year. why is this important? the yield control program effects the cost of carry on participants when buying and holding yen. positive usdjpy means participants are selling yen vs usd. however, negative usdjpy means participants are buying yen vs...
SKEW index indicating a normal distribution so the market/equities arent anticipating any speed bumps. VVIX or implied volatility of vix is cheap meaning options on both sides are fairly cheap which makes sense when examining SKEW. vix futures contango roughly 6% with .89 spread between M1 and spot price tail is in a normal range. the 10 year note has been...
when trading earnings i tend to avoid earnings. because theyre unpredictable. jpm still has a decent weighting on xlf and spy but post earnings IV has been crushed speculators have been masacred. now's our chance to lay the foundation for a premium opportunity over the next few months. the poor man's covered call is similar to a traditional covered call, except...
shortened week, ranges expected based on week open. outlined the monthly and weekly move for this shortened week. could exceed move due to low implied volatility and lowered liquidity. big drivers this week will be from eurozone data and asian data. the market is expecting a flat market. with lowered volatility will come a lowered expected range/velocity. welcome...
The Euro and usd are the two main reserve currencies used to facilitate trade. It appears that the euro may outperform vs usd. It's interesting due to how dovish the Ecb is and where interest rates are compared to the us. The main driver for euro demand is political instability in the US. Either way. Should be a very confusing time for most fundamental fx traders
based on monthly expected move. it's tapped a level that's on the upper end of what was expected. that being said i expect a pop in volatility to bring us back to the chop zone (287-289). with an expectation of expansion in volatilty. im buying 5x may 6 bear puts 289-287 with sentiment overly bullish hedges are on sale. so max cost 5*.50=$2.50 debit/max loss ...
Vix contango a decent spread. Roughly .50 spot--M1. Tail moderate. Equity risk not driver of current volatility however bond volatility has been the main driver. Although lower yields are concerning the main valuation method for risk assets is bond yields. So going forth expect with lower yields higher equity valuations. With higher valuations expect lower...
either buy longer dated premium. or harvest rich put premium via selling risk defined or if youve got the caps undefined. my expectations on BA are extremely positive farther out
Hella bullish tsla in the last stages of it's consolidation. This one looks like it's ready for a massive run. iV is extremely expensive. I suggest selling naked puts or going risk defined and selling bull puts. Or Jade lizard or double verticle (bull put plus bull call
based on monthly .25, .5, .75, 1 standard deviations. dashed lines are average of the .25 .5 .75 and 1 standard deviations. approaching monthly inflection points. not necessarily a bearish sign, just an indicator of possible flatness. markets usually continue along their trend unless acted upon by a force. nothing really on the horizon, prepare for chop beginning...
My expectation is for us to stay with in a range of 278.92 to 290.48
Appears figured out a nice trick. Biggest thing to note this month is expansion in M3 money supply out of the eurozone
no words, just a projection of a possibility. god help us all if im right.
many of you have noticed what appears to be equity volatility in the us and hear the talking heads talk about inversion blah has the fed lost control blah. we're all gonna die, you know the usual. as we've noted in past entries we're feeling the effects of changes in the ECB's stance on going forward due to deflationary data from the eurozone. they've gone from...
so these are levels based on monthly and weekly standard deviation/ variants of that (.25 .50 .75) all in all although its been a choppy ride due to ecb dovishness causing us treasury buying (automated i assume). i do maintain a bullish outlook longer term. as mentioned and i stress it. THIS IS NOT EQUITY VOLATILITY. this is just the digestion of lower growth, but...
looking for the .5 weekly standard dev plot prior support to hold. im looking for a general spy call or selling a couple bull put spreads. main driver of volatility is the german 10 year as described on previous posts