next week we take a peak in hong kong pce inflation. the spike last month is a contributing factor to the situation there. i see the trend of inflation to continue. stimulus measures put in place may actually contribute to the fire. the inflation is due to mainland china devaluation ie import inflation export deflation. the question is, will xi crush hong kong and...
king dollar says all assets must die, including gold.
ive said it countless times. china needs the dollar more than we need china. their sterilization operation requires dollars to keep their currency afloat and inflation in check. if i were el' presidente i would use the strong dollar sledgehammer to bash the world into submission. QE has allowed the post QE world to lever up in dollar denominated debt. you want...
the bond market is right. this is likely to get worse before it gets better.
gold and silver is a hedge to inflation. inflation is not the problem. we're about to see a dollar run thats going to make all assets commit suicide including gold. this dollar run will need to be capped similar to the 80's plaza accord imo.
short eur/usd very crowded. i see a violent squeeze coming. im pumped
chinese wanting to save face, but trump wanting to match. trump has to match. if the situation in hong kong turns bad, this has negative implications for Taiwan and US defense agreements with Taiwan. Taiwan is a pain point where where cold wars could potentially turn hot..
his call in my mind reminds me of japan in the 80's.. that being said we need to see a soaring dollar. a "plaza accord" type deal to devalue the dollar/fix the yield curve inversion before we see money flood back into the chinese market irrationally. chinese land prices will be ridiculous longer term if he's right. so, in order for dalio to be right we first...
without doubt the most lofty valuations in real estate, globally surpassing australia.. when observing the source of contagion all signals point back to chinese speculative money adding fuel to the fire. if china buckles like i expect.... what does that mean for big banks in certain areas where chinese speculative money was able to play?
when the herd stampedes for the door, theyre more likely to move toward cash and equivs. im expecting both from the effects of global devaluation/deflation, interest rate differentials, and overall safe haven. we're now in a lower liquidity environment, like any asset when you constrain supply demand is like to increase and price will follow. much like the 80's...
all good things have to come to an end, but man o man. the banks are about to loose all resemblance of control. im a vix trader, so when i see the yield curve i instinctively see a commodity curve. when the front month risk is worth more than the back end risk ie gamma jamma. the perception to participants is to sell the front month buy the back month. in a...
yea. watch the 10 and 2 year cross. weeeeeee
both a trade war indicator of possible escalation incoming. today's wasde was bearish grains meaning supply is pretty plentiful, from a fundamental perspective that'll play a supportive role for the meat complex/the crush ratio. regardless of the fundamental picture, global trade is likely to hold this market hostage til a definitive resolution