spot 22.22 M1 20.7 M2 19.85 spread -.85 backward. this M1-M2 spread is extremely important to how uvxy rebalances. hv 10 17.89. the new resting heart rate of vix is roughly 17-18 hv 20 and hv 30 yet to reflect current spike. as realized volatility/ HV reflects the likelihood for expanded moves increases
vix futures firmly flat to backward. spot roughly $4 above spot. hv still low. but the spread between M1-M2 beginning to widen. for uvxy the spot cash vs m1-m2 spread is the only thing that matters. lets see what happens next
aweeee. snapps
dunn dun dunnnnnnnnn. are we about to see a mass devaluation? bonds, gold are following the trend. will the pboc step in?!
the bond market disagrees with powells statement of one and done was nearly countered blow by blow with trumps release of tariff increases on china. prep for a response from china. a net result rates are likely to go lower to price in future rate cut expectations. powell folds, and trumps bluff is going 2+ yrs strong
trump announcement on EU trade 1:45 est. i think he targets german manufacturing aka auto manufacturing in particular over iranian oil imports. lets see if im two for two on the tariff front
awe yea. not bullish nor bearish. just showing relative out performance in silver over gold is likely now that the rate cut shenanigans are back on
this spike in treasury vol is due to repricing of rate cut expectations. yesterday post powell rate cut expecations for sept were roughly 30%. post trump/repricing. we're at 70-80% odds for another quarter point cut in sept. congrats el 'presedente you did it
china is about to crack like a pinata. the capital flight is increasing the bid for the dollar but is also guiding future rate expectations lower for longer negating everything powell said. nows the time to kick back and buy dips. china... may have to do the unimaginable again to save their housing market
turbo-tastic.. some traditional pairs may decouple. precious metals in particular will follow face value of bond rates rather the path of the dollar
welp. time to hang up the hats folks. usually oil is seasonally strong. it looks like the global growth cross currents are about to take hold. brace yourself, the end is near. this multi year consolidation i think is likely to melt down
negative economic data and likely escalation of trade tensions (based on hogs) will keep gold bullish
Aug 12 crop report may offer support but Outlook is bleak at best
high iv relatively high risk for sell on the news. i expect an initial pop then drop. backspread is a bear call with an upside call. so im legging the upside call expecting a pop post fomc but expecting a drop back into a range. it really depends on how dovish they appear. if dovish itll likely confirm the pattern. if unsure or not dovish likely to stay rangebound.
regardless of earnings and irrationality. theres a tiny float making it hard to borrow. 70+% of shares outstanding are in lockup til novemeber. be patient