TomPip

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Joined
I have no idea what i'm doing.
Markets Allocation
45 % stocks 4 % indices 2 % forex 49 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
GER 31% | 36 SPY 18% | 21 SPX 11% | 13 C 3% | 4
TomPip TomPip SPX500, W, Short ,
SPX500: SPX500 Sitting the bear market out
362 1 4
SPX500, W Short
SPX500 Sitting the bear market out

For opportunities to invest.

TomPip TomPip SPY, D,
SPY: SPY - 205: the new 210
267 0 1
SPY, D
SPY - 205: the new 210

So in a previous view point 9, which was highlighted in the "Almost done with a full re-run" related view as a pivot, is broken down and, for now, it looks like 195 gap close might be a temporary bottom. I have aligned the PA clone from last year with the 195 gap close and this view is the result. Is the market predicting a recession (by selling off hard) the ...

TomPip TomPip GER30, 240,
GER30: GER30 Backtesting lost support
205 0 2
GER30, 240
GER30 Backtesting lost support

Follow up of related idea.

TomPip TomPip SPY, D,
SPY: SPY MAX PAIN PATH UNTIL JUNE MONTHLY OPEX
94 1 3
SPY, D
SPY MAX PAIN PATH UNTIL JUNE MONTHLY OPEX

SPY's max pain option expiration (opex) path until June '16 Monthly. Option Expiration cycles http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/03/090303.asp Max pain / strike peg http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/maxpain.asp Strike peg tool http://www.optionistics.com/quotes/strike-pegger * Only drawn available data. 02/12 data missing for some reason.

TomPip TomPip SPY, D,
SPY: SPY - Be kind, rewind
367 4 10
SPY, D
SPY - Be kind, rewind

Seasonality wise it seems to align perfectly. Looking at 9 as a key pivot.

TomPip TomPip DAX, D,
DAX: DAX - Multi TF linear regression says compression until May
288 3 5
DAX, D
DAX - Multi TF linear regression says compression until May

On the chart i have drawn the linear regression for the time frame (TF) 360, 180, 90 and 30 days (12, 6, 3 and 1 month respectively). 12 months: bullish 6 months: bearish 3 months: bullish 1 month: bearish a.k.a. mixed signals. Looking at the linear regressions, i think we'll see a relatively neutral, range bound but volatile, first half of '16 with a possible ...

TomPip TomPip SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: SPY Almost done with a full re-run.
298 1 6
SPY, D Short
SPY Almost done with a full re-run.

Will it have the same ending?

TomPip TomPip SPX500, 240,
SPX500: Happy holidays and a profitable new year!
138 0 4
SPX500, 240
Happy holidays and a profitable new year!

See you next year. Taking a well deserved holiday till 4th of January!

TomPip TomPip GER30, 240, Long ,
GER30: GER30 Can holiday volume save Christmas?
496 0 5
GER30, 240 Long
GER30 Can holiday volume save Christmas?

Possible Inverted Head & Shoulders meets Rising Wedge.

TomPip TomPip SPY, D,
SPY: SPY MAX PAIN PATH UNTIL FEB MONTHLY OPEX
165 0 3
SPY, D
SPY MAX PAIN PATH UNTIL FEB MONTHLY OPEX

SPY's max pain option expiration (opex) path until Feb Monthly. Something to take note of is that Dec '15 opex closed well below max pain which might've been caused by delta hedging (and SPY trading ex-div). It's possible that further delta hedging the coming weeks puts selling pressure on the markets. Option Expiration cycles ...

TomPip TomPip SPY, D, Long ,
SPY: SPY 206 max pain Dec opex
205 0 0
SPY, D Long
SPY 206 max pain Dec opex

Because, you know, news is all trivial to the money making machine.

TomPip TomPip SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: SPY 210 brick wall
228 2 4
SPY, D Short
SPY 210 brick wall

Flipping from long to short . Update of previous view. See related.

TomPip TomPip C, W, Long ,
C: C Thanks for raising mortgage rates and not deposit rates, jerks
72 0 0
C, W Long
C Thanks for raising mortgage rates and not deposit rates, jerks

Not really a technical play, but a mid-term investment: rate hike lift off means more money for banks (unless Fed cuts it again, which would suck and make this view obsolete).

TomPip TomPip NAS100, D, Short ,
NAS100: NAS100 Time to flush some stops.
238 1 1
NAS100, D Short
NAS100 Time to flush some stops.

We're starting to build a short position here and will be adding more around 4700, if it reaches that number. Update on the previous long post. See related.

TomPip TomPip GER30, 240,
GER30: GER30 'Dat bounce' or dead cat?
255 0 3
GER30, 240
GER30 'Dat bounce' or dead cat?

So we scalped here and there, but took no serious positions in this :poop: show of an index lately. We've adjusted the support of the broadening top from our previous view (see related) a bit down after what seems to be either a bottom or a dead cat bounce. Same rules apply. Whatever is happening here, we're going sideline into FOMC on $GER30. Enjoy the :poop: ...

TomPip TomPip AMZN, 60, Short ,
AMZN: AMZN Possible Head & Shoulders
173 7 2
AMZN, 60 Short
AMZN Possible Head & Shoulders

111% up YTD. lol.

TomPip TomPip NAS100, D, Long ,
NAS100: NAS100 Flushing stops is what they're good at...
117 0 0
NAS100, D Long
NAS100 Flushing stops is what they're good at...

Looking for a long opportunity at the lowest support, possibly a double bottom as confirmation of the bull trend. Will be scalping long beginning this week up to pennant/ascending triangle resistance.

TomPip TomPip GER30, 240,
GER30: GER30 Possible broadening top
661 0 6
GER30, 240
GER30 Possible broadening top

See http://thepatternsite.com/bt.html

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