ToneVays

ToneVays

Been doing all evening and half way into the night so will fill this out with details and sources/references tomorrow, but wanted to publish so I can send link to friends.... Stay Tuned. (If you see mistakes - Even Spelling, please comment)

ToneVays

This is actually a hard call because those that have followed me for a while know how much much i love my Triangles, which were very reliable in 2014, not as much in 2015. Statistically a Descending Triangle should break to the downside 2/3 rds of the time, but as we saw in late June, there was additional support via 50-day SMA to make the triangle break out to...

ToneVays

To some the pullback from $315 to $270 (or ~15%) might seem excessive but in the volatile world of bitcoin the pullback came up short of expectation. Those that follow my work at BraveNewCoin or Twitter @Tone_LLT would have noticed double parallel up arrows placed on the chart two days ago. The optimal situation would have been for the price to fall a little...

ToneVays

It's been a while since I Published, but i plan to do it more often going forward now that Bitcoin is showing some sign of Volatility once again. I believe we have turned the corner and are now on a bullish trend but anyone expecting another exponential rise like late 2013 is just crazy (they could be right but i am not putting all my money on it). We have gone...

ToneVays

It's not a perfect shape in the making but definitely something to keep in mind. Symmetric Triangles can break one way or another and picking a direction is a dangerous assumption that could cause tunnel vision on expectations, but here is the rational for the forecast. The Symmetric Triangle is forming after a significant down move from the $300+ area. The trick...

ToneVays

The picture is not yet perfect, but we are close. The rejection at the Moving Average will be confirmed with a daily close under $230. The chances of this happening are pretty high and once it does, the price and confidence should drop quickly. There is very little support under $230 (the $223 Fibonacci on the 120 min chart, $213 recent low, and the round number...

ToneVays

This is a follow up on the last published chart here on Trading View. Other than the unexpected Ascending Triangle panic fall due to the Evolution Scam/Theft, the daily chart has been surprisingly textbook perfect. Yes, I took a big hit on going long at $300 looking for $330 but the long term bearish trend would not have changed even at $330 where I was planning...

ToneVays

As you can see, for the first time in almost a year a Triangle Target did not materialize. The intention was to go big time short at the 200 day SMA ( ~$330) but the news of the Evolution Hack definitely turned momentum a few weeks earlier than expected. Yes, i lost a decent amount cause that was as sure of a trade as i had this year. Obviously the risk management...

ToneVays

This is an update to a previous graph. Everything is perfectly on track for the $330 target. Things can always turn on a dime, but regular followers know how much i love my triangles and we are now able to draw one with the 3rd hit of the horizontal line at $295. Current Plan: You should already be long, if not pick up Bitcoin at $290-295 If it moves against...

ToneVays

If TA was easy, there should be a no brainier trade in the next 72 hours to Buy all the Bitcoin you can off the support bounce. Now that we have established "stability" (relatively speaking of course) above the 50 day SMA we are pulling back to it as it turns its own trend from down to up. In addition there is horizontal support in the $255 area from the daily...

ToneVays

Does not feel like the 50 period SMA can hold this up... sticking to original call from March 1st on the pull back.

ToneVays

Just a quick publish to show how this chart was used during a presentation in Mexico (Sunday March 1st at 10 AM CT) for the Anarchapulco event. The Green and Red directional arrows were in place prior to the move from 240's to 260's and was recorded on camera. Turned out as great proof to show a mostly non-technical / non-trading audience that Technical Analysis...

ToneVays

This pattern can really move in either direction so call it a guess, a hunch or just unrealistic optimism, but looking for a breakout back to the horizontal resistance / 50-day SMA of $255, then with luck maybe even the 200 day. Bitcoin has had a rough year and even if this is a temp relief rally and we make the ultimate lows in the summer, some positive signs...

ToneVays

Forming yet another Descending Triangle with all the previous ones being true to their targets (or close to true with the most recent one coming short by about $10 so far). The most resent one drawn as of today is suggesting a target of $270-275 over the next 2-4 weeks. This might be an ugly start to 2015, but hopefully we can start drawing these triangle the...

ToneVays

While most indicators are now showing that Bitcoin has turned the corner and should now be set for the year-end really, the Technical picture has been deteriorating rapidly on what appeared to be just a pull back a few days ago. My track record has been beyond poor as my analysis articles indicate by being short two weeks ago: cointelegraph.com Suggesting that...

ToneVays

A nice price reversal from $315 is running into some resistance at $375 where it meets the 50-day SMA. The last time this happened was early October where the price fell almost 20% soon after. The fall this time should be smaller but for a nice Risk/Reward short play look for a pull back back to the $340-350 area with a stop loss set around today's high of day (so...

ToneVays

The Similarity of the moves is uncanny. Silver just made new lows, will BTC follow. Also notice how the moves in BTC are happening 3x faster so going into next year BTC might predict the direction of Silver.

ToneVays

The momentum legs from the $275 low have been taken out. There is a clear Support / Resistance Horizontal channel identified by the Fibonacci's. The RSI and MACD are right down the middle and no one know what the make of the FinCen & SEC news. Waiting for a break down under $340 or a Breakout over $365.