At the moment, Bitcoin is holding a bullish retest on the weekly timeframe. Comparing past tops, the conditions appear to be different. If it holds, it could be expected that the bull market continues. The Bollinger Bands appear to support this theory. Beware of any Black Swan related to Delta or Afhghanistan. There is no escaping a situation like that bullish or bearish.
The Donchian channel is a very basic tool and functions somewhat similarly to the Bollinger Bands to a degree. Past bear markets started when Bitcoin lost the median. This time, Bitcoin has successfully defended the median, meaning that another push up should begin soon.
Bitcoin price is stuck in the cloud on the 2-day, 3-day,- 4-day, and 5-day. The 6-day and weekly are at Tenkan-sen resistance. Monthly, however, has very little resistance above. Only some Chikou span resistance the cryptocurrency should slice through.
I am of the rare few who believes that Litecoin is currently the best trade in crypto. Few altcoins are still so down on their BTC pairs and have underperformed during the bull market thus far. There also is nowhere else this technically flawless of a double bottom pattern, that just completed its retest.
I've poured every ounce of my being into understanding markets, cyclical behaviors, patterns, etc. I very much believe this is the path for Bitcoin. Wave 5 will resemble wave 1. I expect it to run to the 1.618 fib extension. There will be no retest just like in wave 1, but the level will later be retested as the eventual next bear market bottom.
With Bitcoin recovering, I am beginning to consider this parabolic curve holding much like it did during past cycles right above this particular line. That commenced the final stage of each bull market so far.
This would be only a 78% retrace which is short of the typical 80+% bear market retraces. Bitcoin would retrace back to the yearly close that caused the bear market before the bull market was confirmed. $14K would be closer to the bottom. It also would keep the idea of a wave four ending into a wave five final impulse alive, much like 2013 – which was a similar retrace.
Everyone is watching the obvious symmetrical triangle, but let's face it, this is Bitcoin, and things are going to get nasty because it is so obvious.
Considering past sentiment waves, a further pump here could convince the market of an upwards breakout, which will be sold down to new lows. At that point the market will capitulate and see real fear and be...
We're seeing almost an exact fractal pattern from 2018 to 2019. Play this accordingly. I expect a similar pattern where there are both lower highs and higher lows until lows are finally swept, then we proceed higher.
Parabola would still be intact, but blindside bulls before the final leg up. There's an evening star doji forming, and next to no support below. To be completely clear, I do not expect the bull market to be over. Just wave four of five starting now - downward. Five is up to $100K+. Don't get shaken out.
I was always turned away from Elliott Wave Theory by other crypto analysts and traders, but after reading the "personalities" and psychology behind each wave, and saw how well the targets matched up with $BTCUSD recently, that I am increasingly convinced that Bitcoin is in wave 3 and is trying to decide if the wave will extend, or complete and retrace.
If wave 3...
Bitcoin was programmed to bubble up every four years, sucking in new participants to the network and ensuring steady adoption. Because the 2013/2017 tops and 2014/2018 bottoms line up so perfectly, using cyclical lines, I projected these forward, and crafted a pitchfork channel valid across both tops and bottoms. From there, I used fibs, diminishing returns and...