This idea was inspired by bitharington's post on Twitter where he outlines at what levels he would consider each variation of Bitcoin's stock to flow model created by Plan B would be invalidated.
The levels are as follows:
S2F-org: May-21 20K; Sep-21 30K; Jan-22 50K.
S2F-upd: Mar-21 20K; Sep-21 40K; Jan-22 80K.
S2FX: Mar-21 30K; Sep-21 90K; Jan-22 200K.
Bitcoin is at a crossroads. Either it confirms both downtrend resistance and $10,000 as resistance turned support, and rallies toward new all-time highs or a false breakout of the multi-year symmetrical triangle is confirmed, and new lows are possible. Here's a look at the big picture and overall market structure in BTCUSD.
It is crystal clear - Bitcoin market cycles are lengthening.
Superimposing each BTC peak over the current top, each peak results in a 574-day distance from the next. This could suggest that Bitcoin may not peak until July 2023, and at a price of $200,000 rather than the $325,000 projected from the last market cycle.
BTCUSD 3-Day is retesting the mid-BB. As the chart shows, rejection from this level has resulted in on average a 40% decline. The last time it was rejected from this level, the Black Thursday collapse followed.
A break above will lead to a test of the upper band and likely a sustained breakout rally. Bear trend may officially be over if there is no rejection here.
The line chart provides a clearer look at what appears to be a breakout of the bear market on monthly timeframes.
Target based on the structure would be just shy of $100K. Makes sense, BTC never reached $20K, it was front-run by a few hundred. $100K will be front-run by a couple grand.
Publishing this so I have it in my idea history. I am not sold on this yet....
I recently wrote an article for a major crypto media outlet, regarding a popular crypto fund manager who asked 'If the Black Thursday shakeout from $10,000 to $3,800 didn't break the conviction of Bitcoin holders, then what will?'
I myself am a long term Bitcoin bull. There is no asset I am more bullish on. I fully expect it to reach prices upward of $100K per...
Zooming out from my last analysis of Bitcoin weekly ichimoku, the last time Bitcoin price held above the weekly cloud kickstarted the last bull market.
The trigger, was a fall to the senkou span B line, as my last analysis has called for. This could be the last dip ever in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price continues to hold bullish above the weekly ichi kumo. However, price has now closed below the senkou span A and there's a kumo twist in the cloud turning from green to red. Kumo twists are weak points in the cloud, so even though BTC is holding bullish, the twist could allow it to pass through more easily. A fall to senkou span B in the low $7000...
Past data shows that Bitcoin remains range-bound and under resistance until the United States Presidential Election has passed. Wells Fargo says that a potential Biden win isn't yet priced into the stock market. If Biden wins, a post-election crash may follow due to stock market correlation.
Bitcoin volatility, as measured by BB Width, is showing the third time in four years the asset reached such lows. One time, post-halving, it kicked off the last bull market. The other, Bitcoin fell by over 50% to its bottom at $3200. What will this time bring. Third time's the charm? Or more chaos from corona?
The pitchfork tool clearly shows a long term channel, now testing the bottom of the lower quadrant. If it holds, a similar rise to one of the upper quadrants would be expected.
IF that happens. Alts rekt.
A deeper drop this week cannot be ruled out - even a VERY deep drop. However, over the next month, it will be the last chance to buy XRPBTC at such lows.
Price action is up against, it not through multi-year downtrend resistance. A massive bullish wedge is formed. Lows were just swept, breaking through a key level on the TD sequential indicator, just as 13 and 9...
Bitcoin has closed above the weekly kumo on the ichimoku indicator. Another retest is in progress and thus far continues to hold.
Bullish uptrend is further supported by bullish crossover of the two senkou spans.