TophatPandaMagician

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

Looks like a correction almost done. There's also a chance for a truncated fifth or a double bottom here stopping at the VWAP: It all depends on how btc moves from here. In case of a new low I'd be looking at the lower 1.3x$ range: with the possibility of a liquidation event sending us towards the macro POC currently sub 1.20$.

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

Expanding diag followed by a possible flat. If that plays out, I'd at least want to see the 1.13$ low revisited, preferably deeper though towards 1.05$ or even into the lower 0.90s. Zoomed out:

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

If that count towards a new low plays out, I'd be looking at 52 cents and below. Alternative count, similar short-term conclusion: Alternative conclusion, that's significantly more bullish in the short-term:

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

Disclaimer: I don't have a fundamental basis to actually believe in this scenario, but what I see on the chart I see on the chart. With that out of the way, the shown scenario of an impulse followed by a rather big flat correction, which might be done now, would be extremely bullish, since it would suggest new all time highs (that would be a 13x from here at...

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

Looks like a massive ZigZag has finished on Tilray. C-Wave is pretty much exactly .786 the length of the A-Wave (in log). If the impulse from the low is completed, it's a bit too early to call for a completed correction, though not entirely impossible, if this finishes as a Zigzag down (meaning we're currently in the C-wave). Timewise it would seem too short...

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

Could very well be done here already with the orange count or could provide at least another low with the yellow count.

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

There are multiple ways to count the move up, I have two different possibilities on the chart. Either way, I think at this points it's enough to assume that was an impulse. On the correction side I propose a Zigzag, with the C wave as a contracting diagonale, that is missing the C-wave of the wave 5. The volume profile shows very little volume between 55 and...

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

Possible count for a finished corrective at an interesting price point. Now, the only issue here is the impulse count of the last C-wave. There is a slight overlap between the 1 and the 4, but it is just a slight overlap and the end of the 1 there is a sizeable wick, so I would allow that. The wave 5 here could also not be finished yet, but that's often...

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

Going bankrupt is always an option. This is purely a technical view. If it isn't going to zero, it certainly is looking interesting from an Elliott Wave point of view. From 240$ to 6$ is quite the drop. With the proposed count, the last wave 5 could be done or we might be in a last wave 4 before another push down. Here's a count of the last wave, that would be...

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

Red count from the last update here seems to be the possible winner. Got some decent RSI divergence going on here on the daily and 4h. If this plays out as a leading diag to the downside, a retracement might very well go into 250+ before continuing further down.

TophatPandaMagician

No need to overcomplicate things here. Low to high can be counted as an impulse, so there's a clear invalidation point, which is the absolute low. As long as that holds, the direction is up.

TophatPandaMagician

BTC leads, the rest follows? This is ETH against BTC, not USD! So as long as BTC doesn't do a big dump, it sure looks like ETH might push next. With BTC being close to ATH and ETH still missing another 30% just to get to ATH (in USD), that does seem plausible enough. Going by this projection though and assuming at least a stable BTC at the current levels...

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Still, a little observation on the monthly chart: Every time the RSI moved towards 70 coming from an RSI low, a correction of at least 2 months and at least 30% in price followed and that's pretty much where we currently are.

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

Could this be an impulse from inception to all time high? Certainly looks like it could be an impulse finished or close to finishing starting at all time high, which would just be an A-wave in that case. An alternative would be to have this impulse as the C-wave of a flat only finishing wave 4.

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

Certainly not an unambiguous count. Going with the expanding diag shown, the proposed sideways correction can be counted in multiple ways.

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

Since the long from this analysis (click image to get there): played out nicely, I figured I'd create a fresh analysis for the current view. Zoomed in image: Most immediate bullish view would have us close to finishing the C-wave of a flat correction before continuing higher. Getting the placement of wave 3/4 of that C-wave right is a bit tricky - we...

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

If you wanted a long on TSLA, the 205-207 level would be one to watch for a hold, if it continues further down.

TophatPandaMagician Updated 

Grml, I just noticed that my post from 2 weeks ago for this got deleted by mods :/ Pretty much mentioned this level for a hold, which now gave a nice reaction for starters... We'll have to see if it holds. An alterantive count, which would have the low as the finish of wave 4 instead of a wave 2 (from 2 weeks ago): Even more bullish view would see the...