Tradeciety

Tradeciety

After the reversal trade of last week, the USDCAD broke above its middle Bollinger Band again. The previous two times, the beakout was short-lived and the trigger for another bearish phase. 1.391 makes for a reasonable place to short but we need additional confirmation that the recent bullishness is fading. For now it's not a trade but once bears re-enter, the...

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The EURJPY is back on the watchlist as the only EUR related pair. Zoom out to the daily and you see the downward sloping price channel. Last week it found resistance at the upper side of the channel at 132. We are watching 130 closely. A break of 130 could lead to additional bearishness and kick off the next bearish wave. Ideally we'd like to see a bullish wave...

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After the BOJ intervention, we are back to where we started and USDJPY is about to run into 116. Friday's US data and an increased likelihood for a rate hike in March may keep the USDJPY from breaking lower. Last time we saw an immediate reaction trading into 116. We expect to see more volatility this time since the re-visit has come earlier than expected....

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We caught two trades last week. The first happened on the NZDUSD – a long trade after a Bollinger Band spike and a momentum divergence. 0.67 was a major supply zone but the first time price went into it, price did not show a strong reaction – there was also no divergence yet. As reversal traders we know that those aren’t high probability setups so we waited for...

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Last week was a big up and down and after Fed's Dudley initially down talked a potential rate hike, Friday's job numbers make the rate hike more likely again. Although job creation slowed, the unemployment rate dropped below 5% and average earnings saw a huge rise which lead to a Dollar rally on Friday and the S&P 500 tanked. Markets are eagerly waiting for...

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The huge drop in the USD lifted other currencies such as the EURUSD which broke out of its consolidation. The USD Index stopped right at 96.5 which is a major support level. A break of that level could lead to a new major short wave with the next target at around 95. Watching the USD Index is a must for forex traders with exposure to the dollar. The dollar is...

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The NZDUSD has gained our attention. The Kiwi is currently the strongest pair against the USD which lead to this week's rally. The NZDUSD just arrived at its supply zone at 0.668 which also completed the Fibonacci sequence. It currently missing the momentum divergence and the price pattern is not really convincing either. At this point, we are waiting for a...

Tradeciety Updated 

Yesterday, we pointed to downside potential after the distribution pattern (I'll link the idea below). However, the AUDUSD never traded below the last support at 0.70 so there was no signal given to enter a short. The following Fed talks that lead to a USD rally would have trapped traders who entered prematurely. Traders who remained patient and waited for a...

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Gold is no only seeing safe haven flows, but it is also used as wealth preservation asset these days. With interest rates at record lows, investors are piling into Gold again. The recent Gold rally is not showing any extreme behavior the fact that Gold is trading below its 2.5 Bollinger Bands shows that the rally is fairly moderate and not fear driven. The area...

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All major indices sold off on Wednesday except for the S&P. After being down most of the day, the dollar drop and the subsequent rally in commodities and oil lifted energy shares in the S&P and the index was able to recover all its losses. Japanese investors are worried about the regained strength of the Yen despite the BOJ intervention and sold the...

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It shouldn’t have come as a surprise, but it did. On Wednesday, the Fed indicated that it’s very likely not going to rate the hikes again soon. The subsequent drop showed that investors were very optimistic about future rate hikes and then had to reverse their positions. The Dollar drop turned into a rally for commodities. The oil rally also spilled over into...

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The USDCAD is a great example on how technicals and fundamentals work together. While the USDCAD traded lower into its demand zone at 1.39, oil started selling off again and lifted the USDCAD. If price can get above 1.412, we see 1.43 as the next upside target. The contingency is that oil keeps selling-off though.

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The AUDUSD showed an accumulation pattern for the past week. The moves higher into the supply zones did not lead to any major bullishness and now we renewed commodity pressure, the AUDUSD continues its selloff. It is currently trading at a demand zone at 0.70 but a break of that level should give us 0.695 as the next downside target. We are keeping a close eye...

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After 2 days of relief, reality is catching up with investors and the S&P500 is back to where it where it trades last week. Crude oil is back below $30 which adds to the pressure. Earnings that can't met expectations and companies that show significant reductions in capital spending also scared the markets. The ADL at the bottom shows that the broad market is...

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With negative rates for the Yen, seeing the USD/JPY and the EUR/JPY higher is a likely outcome. The confluence area for the EUR/JPY at 132.3 is the level we are watching. A confirmed break of the level with a successful retest could lead to a new trend wave. The USD/JPY broke its major resistance at 121 last week. It still has a few hurdles to go through....

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International indices are well aligned. Two weeks ago, the majority of indices posted rejection wicks at their support levels. Last week we saw the follow through. The S&P 500 and the Nikkei 225 were the leaders showing stronger bullishness, while the DAX and Hang Seng show more indecision. This week, earnings will be a big theme for equity investors. Positive...

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2 weeks ago, we talked about the major support level in the AUDUSD and now the Aussie is breaking its upside resistance levels... Now with the weakening of the US-Dollar Index and the break of the USD trendline, a further appreciation of the Aussie is likely. Investors also started shifting their focus away from China and the weakening of the Chinese market isn't...

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The Aussie managed to get away from it's major support level below at 0.69 and is has been trading higher slowly but steadily. Currently, it's dealing with 2 supply zones and every time it's pushing into them, it finds new sellers (zones marked with blue). The daily 21 EMA is also at this area. On top of that, you find 2 resistance zones (marked in green) which...