WellTrainedMonkey

WellTrainedMonkey

Cafe de Coral is literally the kitchen of HK. Revenue and profitability growth has collapsed so much into negative territory that mathematically speaking, the year-on-year comparable are going to be very favorable in 2021 and 2022. Rental and labor cost, the 2 biggest cost components are going to act as a tailwind for the company (LTM operating margins of 2.6%...

WellTrainedMonkey

Short TSLA, the modern day widow maker trade, but perhaps this is the time to give it a go. We have the stock potentially making a lower high at the tail end of a parabolic move. Battery day came and went, by most accounts and by the price action, it was a flop. Just Elon trying to talk up his share price by saying manufacturing batteries in-house will be the...

WellTrainedMonkey

HSI peaked in 2018 and has been in a downtrend marked by persistent lower highs and lower lows. With 40+ odd days to US elections, expect more craziness out of Trump and China to push back by flexing its revitalized military. Anybody else noticed how most of the Chinese Wushu/war shows in recent years have featured Chinese fighting foreigner oppression? The...

WellTrainedMonkey

This market has been a momentum hound and weak dollar story. It is fair to say momentum is waning and the weak dollar might be in the rear view mirror as the DXY key component, the EURUSD has broken down at key multi-decade resistance. Keep an eye on it as stocks do puke every now and then.

WellTrainedMonkey

Gold has always been promoted as an inflation trade and it should be no surprise that the recent surge in gold is entwined in the Fed's debasement of the USD in the name of Covid-19 support. With the weaker USD, we see rallies in commodities such as oil etc as producers adjust prices to offset the weaker USD. With c.60% of the DXY denominated by the EURUSD and...

WellTrainedMonkey

When momentum stocks are running a little too hot, it is always good to take a look at some value names. China Unicom is so cheap that I had to double check the figures to be sure: -> 0.47x P/B, c.-2x standard deviation -> c.7.9% forward real earning yields, -2x standard deviation -> EV/EBITDA of 1.5x , -2x standard deviation it pays a divy yield of 3% and...

WellTrainedMonkey

2319 has been a good performer (+c.56% since trough in Mar'20) but the stock is trading at the top of a channel established since Dec'17 with P/B trading at +1.5x standard deviation and EV/EBITDA at +1x standard deviation. Operating margins of c.6% is the best in last 10 years...got to wonder if the stock is priced for perfection and ripe for some mean reversion.

WellTrainedMonkey

Since hitting the multi-decade resistance in Aug, the EURUSD has been range bound. It is really hard to imagine why the EURUSD would finally break the multi-decade resistance considering both central banks are engaged in debt monetarization and debasing their respective currency. Considering the big up-move in the EURUSD coincided with the big ramp in US...

WellTrainedMonkey

AMZN showing a lower high with a 7x standard deviation from the trend line with earnings coming up next Thursday while US payroll protection is ending. Let's play connect the dots, if AMZN is the Nasdaq (11.6% based on market cap weight) and the stock is entering the danger zone with the Nasdaq sitting on a potential double top neckline...and TLSA (2.2% based...

WellTrainedMonkey

The next couple of trading session would be interesting to see if the Nasdaq stays above the neckline or if we get a repeat of March madness as Robin Hooders finally realize stocks do actually go down every now and then. Interestingly, this market weakness is coming at the end of July as payroll protection expires in the US.

WellTrainedMonkey

MIllion dollar question, buy bonds or equities. Sometimes I like to just keep it simple.

WellTrainedMonkey

This is the million dollar question, buy bonds or buy equities. Sometimes, I like to just keep it simple.

WellTrainedMonkey

The last time I did a chart series was in mid-Mar warning of a bounce in the markets. Since then, markets have been on a tear and behaving somewhat like a honey badger, it doesn't care if there are still 1,000 daily Covid-19 deaths in the US, race riots and Trump reigniting the Sino-US trade wars. Maybe markets are optimistic there are only 5 more months of...

WellTrainedMonkey

The last time I did a chart series was in mid-Mar warning of a bounce in the markets. Since then, markets have been on a tear and behaving somewhat like a honey badger, it doesn't care if there are still 1,000 daily Covid-19 deaths in the US, race riots and Trump reigniting the Sino-US trade wars. Maybe markets are optimistic there are only 5 more months of...

WellTrainedMonkey

The last time I did a chart series was in mid-Mar warning of a bounce in the markets. Since then, markets have been on a tear and behaving somewhat like a honey badger, it doesn't care if there are still 1,000 daily Covid-19 deaths in the US, race riots and Trump reigniting the Sino-US trade wars. Maybe markets are optimistic there are only 5 more months of...

WellTrainedMonkey

The last time I did a chart series was in mid-Mar warning of a bounce in the markets. Since then, markets have been on a tear and behaving somewhat like a honey badger, it doesn't care if there are still 1,000 daily Covid-19 deaths in the US, race riots and Trump reigniting the Sino-US trade wars. Maybe markets are optimistic there are only 5 more months of...

WellTrainedMonkey

The last time I did a chart series was in mid-Mar warning of a bounce in the markets. Since then, markets have been on a tear and behaving somewhat like a honey badger, it doesn't care if there are still 1,000 daily Covid-19 deaths in the US, race riots and Trump reigniting the Sino-US trade wars. Maybe markets are optimistic there are only 5 more months of...

WellTrainedMonkey

The last time I did a chart series was in mid-Mar warning of a bounce in the markets. Since then, markets have been on a tear and behaving somewhat like a honey badger, it doesn't care if there are still 1,000 daily Covid-19 deaths in the US, race riots and Trump reigniting the Sino-US trade wars. Maybe markets are optimistic there are only 5 more months of...