YaKa

YaKa

More of the same for a few more months before a real correction? Simple long term linear view for a change: 1 – momentum fading - ok 2 – there are tactical support at 2070 and 2040. 3 - Strategic/structural support at 2015 – Watch out below that level (although next key strategic support is 1960). 4 – The best case could be 2180 in November.

YaKa

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YaKa

I got great insight yesterday from one partner who reminded me that “when you wait for something for too long, you often build the opposite opinion subconsciously close to the moment you are about to be right”. It made me more paranoid than I am already so I thought I would rationalise my decision a bit more. There is a significant probability that the current...

YaKa

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YaKa

The Greek Saga is not over. In the next 2 weeks, there shall be more volatility close to the top. There is a possibility for a last move up that would be the last anchoring point for a short. If 2140 is presented just after a Greek Solution: SHORT

YaKa

.. A sharp slide!

YaKa

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YaKa

Then I foresee a significant correction to 1960/1900.

YaKa

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YaKa

As long as 2070 is defended, a parable at 2140/2180 is possible

YaKa

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YaKa

Try here against the 200d ema - Stop 400pts lower: Give yourself a chance.. be light but strong.

YaKa

A last parable with a peak early in July is still possible: > Remain long tactically as long as above 2060. > Cut longs if 2060 in close. > Go short if 2140/2170. In any case, my base case is to hit 1960 before end of August.

YaKa

The market could open slightly lower on the disappointment of the Greek talks in Brussels this weekend. www.ft.com Technically, as long as the last bottom is defended, the posture could still deliver a relief spike. On SPX, 2140/2160 is the target short. (2200 would be the extreme vertically, +1% per month). Below 2040 in close could open to very different...

YaKa

Conclusion: - buy 10.40 in the next few weeks if provided, there shall be rebound. - the worst case bottom may be as low as 7.50 in 2016. - Strong USD, Large production, weak BRL, Weak demand.. created a trend that will reverse somewhere in the next 12 months. 1) overall we are close to a bottom. 2) in time too after a 5 years correction. 3) if the market falls...

YaKa

Note the best, base and worst case may occur in sequence. My base case is that 1960 is going to be hit. Before this happens, SPX may reach 2170 between the 19th of June and the 10th of July. Once 1960 is reached there are 3 scenarios: A) Correction is finished and SP500 resumes up. B) SPX goes deeper to 1900 before a sharp rebound into november 15. C) SPX...

YaKa

DAX may need help, that would do..

YaKa

- We may have a global CLIMAX in the next 2/3 weeks. - 21,400/end of June (5% climax/not trivial to reach) would be a perfect short area for many weeks where the market would be capped by multi/time frame speed limits... - After a few weeks the edge would disappear but the market may be much lower. > The short I am seeing in 2/3 weeks could be a global one...