if you want to hook to the long, you can try here with a stop on close below 2095. if it works, this long could lead to 2140/2180
Catalysts at play: 1) Benefiting from a thrust from an oversold situation on key support. 2) Quarterly option expiry next week which is a pull on delta management. 3) Greek deal which could be reached despite media alerting tone. Trading: > I would take profit on 2/3 of my long position at 11,500 and play the last bit up to 12,000 in 10% size. > Move stop to...
May be following the same sequence starting on the 25th of Jul14. If so: roller coaster still on until a bottom in August.
Price & Time Target. Leeway per pivot 3%/4 weeks
A breakout has occurred above the red line. However, as long as below 300, the move down could pursue. Note the red line was probably too aggressive as the it crosses 0 before end15. It would be beneficial for bitcoin to be stable in price and would add to its potential benefit. That price may be lower though
A penetration below 2100 could tigger a mini avalanche that may overshoot below 2080 and reach target 2040. With or without this mini avalanche the top shall be in the 2150/2170 area towards the end of this month. A decent correction is to be expected: 1960 shall trade before the end of August 2015.
Wedge at play. I would have thought that it would breath to 2040 with a rebound later but it is not happening and the window is closing if the 19th of June is to be a TOP. Greece next payment is due on the 5th and there needs to be a deal before that. There might be some noise early next week followed by a recovery so the breather is not entirely excluded..
Not sure how accurate that is but if it keeps behaving like this without breaking, it may be marking an important top.
These high level maps are only useful a few times per decade – Here is the case I believe. Interesting information: (1) The 33-Year rally from 1933 to 1966 had the same speed than the 33-year rally from 1982 to 2015. (2) The period 1995 to 2007 is a balloon over that “normal” trend. (3) The DOW is currently in line with long term trends (against “normal” speed...
(1) There is a wedge since Mar09 (red). Breaking below the red line in weekly is a big deal. (2) There is a more recent wedge formed since Nov14 exhibiting ever lower realised volatility. (3) It is unlikely that SPX will carry on climbing in the red wedge from here. (4) I see the 19th of June as the last date around which a resilience top could be...
I am short for a while now. I would take profit at 2040. I would consider going long 2040 with tight stop. If the market is still in upside posture after the 19th of June 2015, it is a likely a good short from a time window perspective.