Looks like we are having a possible bearish three drive. First bullish wave from 50.38 to 55.75 First bearish Pullback 55.75 to 51.23 ( less than 0.9 retrace of first bullish wave) Second bullish wave from 51.23 to 57.88 ( 1.47 extension of First bearish pullback ) Second bearish pullback from 57.88 to 54. 52 ( less than 0.9 retrace of first bullish wave) Third...
We are approaching the 50% retrace of the 76.9 to 42.36 drop, and also next week will be the 13th week of this latest rally. The 59 zone remains as an important resistant. A drop to 54/55 zone is highly possible . Waiting for next week to enter short :)
The 618 extension of 50 to 55 swing is approaching, so is the travel time . Worth to pay some attention here...
Oil made a nice breakout of the 58 area, apparently it is setting up for a run into probably 60 and higher technically. However, this the 59.1 to 59. 9 zone has some historical resistant. It doesn't mean this up swing from 42 maybe ending, however A break of 54 zone will definitely put it on a reality check. I would suggest the long position to be as close to 55....
The 4h chart is showing two nearly identical pattern, it is highly possible we are going to see the last peak of the pattern. It should end around March 15 or March 18... where would it be? 57.7? 58? 59? I am not sure, but 58.2 is the current resistant , and 59.5 zone has the 50% retrace of latest swing down... I would say it is pretty tricky spot :)
Short stop loss 58.2. This 57.4 to 57.7 zone has some resistant and the stop lose is fairly small. Target 52.7 Going to be a choppy trade
The breaking of 55 level on Friday put the latest Oil rally in doubt. A break of 51 zone will open up the possible drop to 47-48 area. A break above 58 zone will open up mid 60s. It is likely we will have to go down significantly into a value zone to attract more value buyers. Should it be 50 or 40? The 2017 bottom 42 was able to rally into 66, with a drop to 58...